Q: Double your outs equity vs equilab

    • chipsilicon
      chipsilicon
      Basic
      Joined: 20.01.2015 Posts: 6
      This a question regarding equity as calculated via the double your outs method and equilab.

      This is the situation:

      :7s: :9d:

      :6h: :8s: :Ad:

      And I have pot odds of 25%
      Now if I calculate my card equity

      Double the outs: 8 * 2 = 16
      Add one: 16 + 1 = 17%
      = 17% chance of making the straight

      By this method I shouldn't CALL - because pot odds are great than equity!

      But if I put the above hand into Equilab my equity is 42%

      So I should call! ? :f_ugly: :f_ugly: :f_rolleyes: :f_mad:

      Basically I'm most likely being dumb ... but what is going on here and what am I missing?

      Thanks!
  • 8 replies
    • Lazza61
      Lazza61
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 23.03.2011 Posts: 9,219
      Hey chipsilicon,

      Welcome to PokerStrategy.com :)

      You actually haven't converted it to a percentage.

      (8/47)+(8/46)*100 is the formula you need to convert to a percentage. This only gives you your odds for a straight. You also gain some equity for pairs, running two pairs or running trips.

      So for the straight it is 0.1702 + 0.1739 = 0.3431 * 100 =34.31%. You gain your other 8% equity for the other hands that improve.

      Hope this explains it

      Laz
    • chipsilicon
      chipsilicon
      Basic
      Joined: 20.01.2015 Posts: 6
      Hey Laz,

      Yes! I think that does :f_drink:

      So would I be right in saying I have a 17% chance on the turn ... and if that doesn't show another 17.3% chance on river?

      Thanks, these calculations are frying me!
    • Lazza61
      Lazza61
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 23.03.2011 Posts: 9,219
      Hey chipsilicon,

      Yes and a 34.3% of hitting over both streets. Bear in mind my calculations are only for the straight and don't include your other possible outs.

      Whether it is an odds call will depend on whether you expect to have to call another bet (if you brick turn) and of course, implied odds. If you hit the nuts, you may be able to get his whole stack. So the size of his remaining stack is important as well.

      Regards

      Laz
    • chipsilicon
      chipsilicon
      Basic
      Joined: 20.01.2015 Posts: 6
      Thanks, Laz!

      I'm finally getting interested in maths!
    • NothingIsForSho
      NothingIsForSho
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2014 Posts: 378
      are you putting it vs a random hand or vs AK or something? That's obviously going to effect the result
    • NothingIsForSho
      NothingIsForSho
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2014 Posts: 378
      And if you put him on a range of AK+ equilab gives 30%... and if and Ax+ range included it gives 32%... the more you know.

      So I guess you could say that if your opponent was willing to stack of on this kind of flop you always have about 31% and should be stacking off getting the usual 2 to 1 odds... of course most people would be insta-stacking off anyway so nothing much learned...
    • Ramble
      Ramble
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 1,421
      Originally posted by chipsilicon
      Hey Laz,

      Yes! I think that does :f_drink:

      So would I be right in saying I have a 17% chance on the turn ... and if that doesn't show another 17.3% chance on river?

      Thanks, these calculations are frying me!
      Your rule of thumb in your first post of counting outs and multiplying by 2 is good approximation - for each street. So if you want to know rough odds of making straight by turn it is 8*2 = 16% and by river it is 8*2*2 (or 8*4) = 32%...
    • chipsilicon
      chipsilicon
      Basic
      Joined: 20.01.2015 Posts: 6
      Originally posted by NothingIsForSho
      And if you put him on a range of AK+ equilab gives 30%... and if and Ax+ range included it gives 32%... the more you know..
      Thanks, I put it up against a fairly tight hand.

      Definitely got to consider the Ace I guess and the odds of someone hitting a higher top pair.

      So who would call that out of interest or raise to it based on a two on two and raise from the small blind who previously met your big blind to see the flop.