Me playing the Ceph

    • kavboj84
      kavboj84
      Gold
      Joined: 16.06.2011 Posts: 1,999
      Hi everyone,

      a finally managed to get a match vs Cepheus ( It took 3 hours of waiting ). I recorded it ofc:



      C & C are welcome
  • 9 replies
    • Avataren
      Avataren
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2010 Posts: 1,621
      put some music on next time :D but nice done and well recorded. maybe except from the taskbar. but other than that its all cool.

      the bot really does work eh.
    • kavboj84
      kavboj84
      Gold
      Joined: 16.06.2011 Posts: 1,999
      Yeah I should've done some post production on it but I was mad tired so I just uploaded the video and fell into my bed
    • Avataren
      Avataren
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2010 Posts: 1,621
      well played :)
    • Boomer2k10
      Boomer2k10
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.09.2010 Posts: 2,551
      Right!! First 10 minutes!!

      *cracks knuckles*

      I'll put my advice in and supplement it with Cepheus when I can :f_thumbsup:

      :2c: :Tc: - Call Preflop, I think 3-betting this is out of order. If you're 3-betting this you're probably 3-betting any 2-suited and I wouldn't follow that strategy tbh.

      C: SQUISHY HUMAN SHOULD CALL!! (99.17/0.83)

      Turn I don't like the check, you've 3-bet pre and that card smacks your range hard, your hand isn't strong enough in your range to x/r and it's too strong to x/c so I'd prefer a bet.

      C: HUMAN SHOULD FOLLOW MIXED STRATEGY (55.5% BET / 44.5% CHECK). CEPHEUS WOULD NOT HAVE SUCH A HAND

      I'm not surprised by Cepheus's Q9-high call down. All it's Kx improved on the turn and Ax is a snap calldown on that board vs anyone but a total nit (and Cepheus isn't adjusting it's play) and usually worst case scenario is you're chopping. I'm currently running a sim to see how far down Cepheus would go there.

      C: STRONGBOT CALLS ALL Qx TO SOME DEGREE!!


      :Qc: :7d: : Owwwww!!

      Sadly there's not really any other way to play this unless you want to barrell off the turn as a free showdown bet/fold but you may have too much SD value for that. You're just never winning this hand and probably losing 1 bet on turn/river.

      C: CHECK BACK FLOP 58% OF TIME!! AS PLAYED FIRE TURN 89% OF TIME!! AS PLAYED RIVER FOLD!! IF BET TURN CHECK RIVER, IF DONKED INTO ON RIVER FOLD. TURN BET LAST BET TO GO IN!! COMPLEX HAND!!

      :9c: :Ks: : Again this isn't a hand I'd 3-bet as a default. It's in there somewhere but I'd say 25% at most. It's offsuit and really difficult to play post out of position and barely connected vs an opponent who's going to be a showdown monkey by most standards

      C: MEATBAG CAN 3-BET SOMETIMES (38.25/61.75)

      :Kc: :6c: : 3-bet is fine

      Flop check I would need to know a lot more about your flop checking range before deciding if this is good or not. The major part of me says that we're usually ahead on this board texture so I would lean towards betting as range on range it should be profitable (it's 35% vs 85% atm).

      C: AGREE WITH THIS BOOMBOT FLESHBAG. HAVE NO HAND IN RANGE CHECKING MORE THAN 4% OF THE TIME

      If the board was 985tt then I can definitely see a check not being bad but here I'd barrel the flop always.

      C: STILL ONLY A MAX OF 11% WITH ONE HAND TYPE (34s with backdoors)


      :Ks: :Kc: : I'd bet the turn personally, again our hand is probably in our bet-3-bet range here. The only plus side is that a free card doesn't hurt us all that often because we have the 2nd nut flush draw but I'd just throw a 2nd bet out here.

      C: BETTING WITH NEAR CERTAINTY (99/1)! BOOMBOT MUST BE ASSIMILATED

      :Ad: :5h: : Good Fold, you aren't beating a damn thing on that river...certainly not enough to justify calling with a crappy Ace

      C: MACHINE CHECKS BACK FLOP 60% OF TIME WITH BACKDOOR DRAWS OTHERWISE GOOD PLAY FOR SKIN AND BONES!! (100% River Fold)

      :3h: :Jd: : Call Pre

      C: LOL NITTY FLESHSACK! (100/0)


      :4h: :6c: : Donk is very interesting but I actually don't mind it. Board would be ripe for checking back and our draw is pretty dirty so I'd have no issue calling 1 and folding so I like it as a cheap bluff

      C: WOULD NOT DONK ANY HAND EXCEPT :4s: :6s: 5% OF TIME. BOOMBOT LOSING ADMIRATION. AS PLAYED 80% BET LIKLEHOOD ON TURN

      :Kh: :5d: : Oh boy, I really don't like this. I would need to literally SEE my opponent's cards to fold there. Yes the river's bad and many of the major draws have come in but the pot's huge, you're prying top pair out of my cold dead fingers there.

      C: HULK-BOT CALLS 100% ON FLOP. AS PLAYED 100% CALL ON RIVER.

      :Ks: :3c: : Nice on the river

      C: WOULD STILL BET! NO SOUR GRAPES!

      :Js: :9h: : I'd just call flop raise turn in position in a 3-bet pot tbh

      C: AGREE! DO NOT RAISE MUCH IN POSITION IN 3-BET POTS!


      :Jh: :Tc: : 50/50 hand so 3-bet is fine. Turn and river are brutal and wow I'm suprised you didn't get raised on the turn although Cepheus may feel there's no value in it as on all Spades it blows for it, you have AKo and AJo in your range and so it may feel it's a bit thin....or it was waiting for a safe river to raise...interesting

      C: TURN EASY VALUE BET FOR MEATBAG! AWESOME-BOT RAISES TURN ONLY WITH AQ WITH :Qs: REST ARE CALLED!! ON RIVER KAV-FLESH SHOULD FOLD MAJORITY (36/64)


      Nice so far but it takes a long time to review :)

      I'm liking this :)
    • Boomer2k10
      Boomer2k10
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.09.2010 Posts: 2,551
      OK let's continue now I've eaten, as per beofre I'll put my opinion first and then what Cepheus says:

      :7h: :Ks:

      Well played

      C: CHECK FLOP 83% OF TIME WITH EXACT HAND.

      (Boomer: Makes sense, you have 2 weak backdoor draws and King-High so the hand has no value as a bluff or for value so perfect check-back hand)


      C: AS PLAYED RAISE OR FOLD RIVER (22% Raise, 78% Fold). CALL KTo OR BETTER!


      (Boomer: Yikes! However if it's the absolute top of it's folding range then it's the perfect bluff raise hand...personally I would have this as bottom of calling range so can't blame Kav)


      :6d: :Ac:

      Ugh that sucks on the turn but I think we have to call down

      C: DONK FLOP 39% OF TIME! CHECK TURN 100% OF TIME! AS PLAYED CALL TURN (HOWEVER COMBOS OF 6x WITH SPADES OR HEARTS ARE FOLDS DUE TO CARD REMOVAL)


      (Boomer: Interesting how the bot agrees with a donking strategy the more low and coordinated the board gets. Nice to also see card removal in effect)

      :3d: :Jh:

      Raise Pre

      C: YUP!

      :7s: :2s:

      Call Pre. Again you're 3-betting any 2 suited and I think that's out of line

      C: YUP!

      :7c: :Kh:

      Well Played

      C: INDEED

      :Qc: :Js:

      Personally I'd 3-bet this and would much rather 3-bet it than K9o. Probably 60/40 in favour of 3-bet, not constantly

      Hate the river bet, it doesn't achieve anything, it's much more +EV to try and get the opponent to bet and call off

      C: 57/42 IN FAVOUR OF CALL PREFLOP. MORE THAN K9o BUT NOT MUCH!! BLUFF RAISE FLOP!! IF NOT BLUFF RAISE TURN!! IF NOT CHECK/CALL RIVER!!

      OPTIMAL LINE CHECK RAISE FLOP, CHECK TURN (RAISE 32%, CALL 68%), CHECK RIVER (CALL 24%, FOLD 76%)


      (Boomer: Weird one, possibly to do with blockers to both flushes meaning more likelihood of a less EV bluff from opponent along with chances to make 2nd pair. This is a genuine batshit insane GTO-style play I don't really have an explanation for and feel I'd find impossible to balance at game speed)

      C: FINE CHECK-CALL 3 TIMES THEN SQUISHY HUMAN!!

      :2c: :Jh:

      Raise Pre

      C: NEGATIVE!!

      :Jh: :8h:

      I'd contemplate checking flop here. We have some weak backdoors and getting raised here sucks. It's only theoretical though as I've never really implemented checking OOP in 3-bet pots. We're probably 3-barrelling if betting so well played

      C: CHECKING FLOP = 41% OCCURENCE. IF BET FLOP PURE 50/50 SPLIT OF TURN BET/CHECK

      :As: :Js:

      Well Played

      C: RAISE FLOP 20% POSSIBILITY!! AS PLAYED THIS IS OPTIMAL!!

      :Ts: :Tc:

      C: CHECK FLOP 14% POSSIBILITY!! ONCE CHECK RAISED 3-BET 5%, CALL 95%!!


      (Boomer: Interesting to see Cepheus's hand here. Bottom pair big kicker is often in GTO Check/Raise/Check ranges)

      :9d: :Th:

      I'd 3-bet this some, say 30% of the time. I just check-raise on this board, there's very little reason not to c-bet on that board. Wow that's incredible it didn't raise the turn...

      C: 40% 3-BET PREFLOPII CHECK FLOP!! RAISE ONLY :Kc: :Ts: (52%) AND ABOVE FOR VALUE ON TURN!! FLESHBAGS OVERESTIMATE VALUE IT SEEMS!!

      (Boomer: Interestingly if we check raise the flop the bot will only raise back with AT+ on turn and even then only 50% of the time with AT and is even cautious with JJ. This is really interesting. Maybe RIO are playing a big part here.)

      :7c: :8s:

      I bet the final 2 streets for value. Ax is always looking you up as is some Kx and you have a decent hand. Check isn't awful though as you have essentially bottom pair no kicker so I imagine it's ok too. Again the bot playing timid on a paired board, maybe it was looking to x/r turn.

      C: CHECK BACK FLOP 21% OF TIME!! BET TURN 100% OF TIME!! CALL RIVER WHEN BET INTO AFTER CHECKING!!

      OH AND AS FOR THE QT?? 55/45 CHECK RAISE ON FLOP!! 100% CHECK RAISE ON TURN WHICH FLESHY SHOULD CALL DOWN!! MEAT BAG DODGED!! SUCH CHECK!! VERY WOW!!


      Well that gives me 20 minutes of full review and looking forward to see Kav's responses, if interested I'll do the same for the remaining 40 minutes but until tomorrow it's good night from me and goodnight from my terrible impression of Cepheus

      C: GOOD NIGHT BIOLOGICAL WEAKLINGS!! OBEY YOUR GTO OVERLORDS!!
    • Boomer2k10
      Boomer2k10
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.09.2010 Posts: 2,551
      Sod you then....still gonna give opinions :f_drink: :f_drink:

      :Ac: :3s:

      This is a hand where standard and GTO play probably clash, it's standard to x/c on flop but I'm anticipating Cepheus will want to X/R/X

      C: CORRECT! FLOP X/R 100% OF TIME!! HOWEVER DUE TO TRIPS CAN NOW SIMPLY FOLLOW THROUGH ON TURN!! ON BRICK TURN WILL CHECK APPROXIMATELY HALF THE TIME!!

      (Boomer: This is where this program becomes interesting. It's not the full playing it but the fact that, with some prior knowledge, its plays have both merit and understanding behind them and, personally I'm feeling I can predict Cepheus's play better and through it gain a better understanding of the why's and how's of GTO play...incidentally Cepheus doesn't think the Standard Play of x/c is even an option here, it's a 100% X/R)

      :Kc: :7d:

      Turn may be closer than you think, KJ and KT are obvious calls but that would be too few combos I think so it's possible we should be calling the turn again but it's really thin

      C: CALL FLOP 91% RAISE 9%!! WHEN CALLING FLOP ALTERNATE 70/30 IN FAVOUR OF FOLDING OVER CALLING!!

      :5s: :Qd:

      Pretty sure that bet on the river accomplishes absolutely nothing. It's an "I don't want to be bet at" bet rather than a "how should I react to a bet". No better hand's folding and no worse hand is calling so to me that's a wasted bet, especailly vs a player who CAN have trip 6's there where many human players pretty much can't

      C: NO REASON TO BET RIVER. FOR INTEREST RAISING RANGE ON RIVER AS FOLLOWS!!

      MOST LIKELY VALUE HAND: 69 WITH NO BLACK CARDS
      MOST LIKELY BLUFFING HAND: Kx (CALLED SOME, RAISED SOME)


      (Boomer: So while it's unlikely you folded the best hand it was clearly a mistake to bet here)

      :Ad: :3h:

      I don't like this turn x/r at all. Bluff Raise River if you miss I can actually get behind but I think we've got too many weak draws here and we actually block the hands we want to fold and we can get turn re-raise semi-bluffed off our hand.

      C: CALL FLOP MAJORITY OF TIME (80/20 CALL/RAISE)!! 100% TURN CALL!! 100% CALL RIVER!! AS PLAYED ON RIVER YOU NOW MUST BLUFF BET AND IF NOT BLUFF BET BLUFF RAISE!!

      Boomer: Unfortunately you committted the cardinal sin there. Bloat the pot OOP by Bluff Raising a SD Value hand and then Check/Folding it

      :2s: :8s:

      If you're going to take this line I prefer X/R and Barrel. You are at the absolute bottom of your range and so have no value in getting a free card so I'd just commit to the line you chose on the flop

      C: FOLD FLOP 92% OF TIME!! RAISE REMAINING 8%!! CHECK FOLD CORRECT ON TURN!! BOOMER FAIL!!

      (Boomer: I stand corrected, it's possible there are so many draws on the board now that there's no need to play one as weak as this)


      :Qc: :Kd:

      I pretty much 100% 3-bet this hand but I can see the occasional rare call being ok. Rest of hand is simple, don't fold.

      Interesting seeing Cepheus give up with a no-hoper of a hand, wonder what it bluffs there

      C: 75/25 3-BET VS CALL PREFLOP!! CALL FLOP 80%, RAISE 20%!! CALL TURN 100%!! BLUFFS CONSIST OF MANY MISSED GENUINE DRAWS (INCLUDING 5T) AND ALL UNPAIRED 8x OR WORSE!! 59 BOTTOM OF CHECKING RANGE

      :6s: :Kh:

      Possible check back on flop. Backdoor straight draws and K-High make for a decent candidate.

      C: CHECK FLOP 99% OF TIME!!

      (Boomer: YUS!! Got One!!)

      C: EVEN BLIND MEATBAG FINDS NUT EVENTUALLY!!

      :8h: :Jh:

      This is close to a peel funnily enough. 2 overs to the middle card, backdoor straight draws. Only thing making it bad are the 3 spade which blunt 2 of our pair outs... I'd probably still fold most of the time though

      C: CALL 56%, FOLD 44%. BORDERLINE HAND!! :7h: :Jh: = 45% CALL, 55% RAISE!!

      (Boomer: This is becoming more interesting and yet more clear. It's plain to see that simple "value" poker is right in many circumstances and Fancy Play Syndrome is just that. However where the bot will have a MASSIVE edge is when the hand is totally borderline. Being unexploitable there is a huge edge.)

      :5s: :Kc:

      Again I'm leaning towards a check. Backdoor Straight Draw, Backdoor Flush Draw and King High. That said it's the K-High BDFD which may lean towards a bet but personally I'm seeing this as an ideal check again. Rest of hand standard

      C: BET DUE TO BDFD ADDING VALUE TO HAND!! WOULD CHECK NON CONNECTING K5 20% OF TIME ON AVERAGE!! MOST IDEAL HAND FOR CHECKING K4 AND Q4 WITH NO CONNECTION, LOW GUTSHOTS WITH BDFD AND LOW PAIRS!!

      (Boomer: Grrr, close but no cigar)

      C: ACCEPT YOUR MASTER!!

      And another 10 minutes down...I'm really finding this cool, especially Cepheus's strategy.
    • Boomer2k10
      Boomer2k10
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.09.2010 Posts: 2,551
      30-40 minutes:

      :8h: :Kc:

      I just call the turn. Free-Showdown Raise is probably a decent option with a double gutshot and King-High but I think it's a more high variance line.

      C: CALL TURN 78% OF TIME. FREE SHOWDOWN RAISE 22%!!


      :Kh: :4h:

      This seems to be one of the bot's favourite checking hands, a crappy K-High, so I imagine it will do the same here or similar. Also note, no BDFD so hand has less value and doesn't block any of the stronger draws meaning hand has less value as a bluff.

      C: CORRECT!! 93% CHECK ON FLOP!!

      :9d: :Qh:

      I call pre. Then again if you're going to flop like that 3-bet always!!

      :Qc: :3d:

      Good check on flop. Turn just fold, pot is tiny so not worth risking 2 bets on turn (that's the one criticism if any I have of what I've seen is that a couple of times I've seen you take an action on one street to limit/increase the size of the pot and then taken a perpendicular action on the next street)

      C: CHECK FLOP 60% of TIME!! TURN 100% FOLD!!


      :9d: :Ac:

      River Bet I'm not a fan of. Rarely you'll get KQ to call but that's the minority. I don't think you have enough value here for a bet and it'd probably be AQ minimum I'd be value betting here

      C: START VALUE BETTING A-HIGH AT AT (SOME COMBOS!) WOULD CHECK HERE WITH SOME BACKDOOR NUT FLUSHES!!

      :Qh: :6h:

      I call flop in position in 3-bet pot, can't say raise is hugely wrong though as hand is mega strong. Problem on turn is now our hand's even stronger but do we barrell? Yeah I think so. nice river.

      C: 96/4 IN FAVOUR OF FLOP CALL VS RAISE!! IF CALL 100% BLUFF RAISE TURN!! AS PLAYED 100% BET TURN!! MEATBAG RUNNING GOOD!!

      :7c: :9c:

      Woh this turn 3-bet is suicidal. Absolutely he can be bluffing but you're going to have better stuff to fight back with here by a long way. :5s: :6s: , :7s: :9s: , I really don't like this AND YOU HAVE TO BET THAT RIVER!! What are you afraid of? He wasn't going to fold a K or pair anyway on the turn and all the draws which are all you're getting to fold have bricked so that river's a must bet if you're going to take this line.

      C: FOLD TO TURN RAISE!! BET 3-BET SEMI BLUFF COMBO DRAWS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER FDS IN PARTS (:5s: :6s: 97% B3B, :Js: :7s: ,:Js: :9s: , :Ts: :9s: IN PARTS ETC)

      :9s: :Kc:

      I prefer a bet on the flop. Good King High as opposed to weak and BDFD adds to hand strength. As played calldown fine.

      C: YUP!!

      OK I'm out for the night, hope you guys enjoyed
    • kavboj84
      kavboj84
      Gold
      Joined: 16.06.2011 Posts: 1,999
      Hey Boomer,

      thanks for your reply. Unfortunately I have a lot do ATM and can't reply in detail, TBH I couldn't even read your second post fully, hopefully I'll have a few free hours next week, and then I'll tell what my thinking was if you are interested.
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,802
      Sup peeps. I also started playing against 'Cephy', planning to play a long match vs it. Nothing is set in stone yet, but at least 3-4k hands or so. I might just keep going until I get bored. I find it very educational. We are up to 700 hands at the moment. If you're interested, videos of the sessions are available here.

      Right now I estimate that it is beating me for roughly 0.5-0.7BB/100 (in EV).

      Here's how I came up with this figure. It's kind of silly, but I can't do any better.

      I think I've played okay so far, I made perhaps 6-8 minor mistakes per 100, and 4-6 big blunders total over these 700 hands.
      A big blunder is a decision that no optimal strategy would ever make (probably). In other words, 1) Cepheus would never make that play, and 2) it seems bad based on traditional human analysis. These mistakes cost me 0.2-0.3B/100 on average - obviously these are rough estimates.

      A minor mistake is something that Cepheus wouldn't do, but human analysis doesn't suggest that my action is clearly inferior to Cepheus' strategy, meaning that it could conceivably be part of a different optimal strategy. We (I) just don't know! Let's say these cost me 0.3-0.4BB/100.

      Sometimes it feels like it is absolutely crushing me. Initially I thought it's edge could be around 3-4BB/100. But when I take some decision that I'm unsure about, and compare it to Cepheus' strategy, it is typically revealed that what I did was actually okay, or at most a small mistake. It's kind of hard to guess it's edge based on good old human intuition.

      Cepheus is very frustrating to play against, that's for sure.