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Variance in 45 man SNG's thoughts?

    • iSoOwnYou
      iSoOwnYou
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2014 Posts: 642
      Hi, from people that have played these over decent samples (5k+?) and are winning players, can you tell me what you think of the variance in 45 man sngs generally. I have just started playing them and want to try to develop my ROI.

      If you are a decent player and have a decent roi in these (what ever that may be) - how likely would you expect to win or lose, over say 100 games?

      I'm playing the smallest right now, 0.25 45 mans, so assume this will help my variance as I will have more of an edge over the field.

      Your thoughts appreciated, i've read that 1k breakeven stretches are to be expected, which i find hard to believe? http://www.deucescracked.com/forums/25-Tournament-Poker/topics/488181-45-man-variance

      the reason i moved to 45mans is because i was getting sick of variance in regular stars mtts, thanks!
  • 15 replies
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Meh, I would say 1k BE stretches should happen and it's nothing out of the ordinary. ROI's are gonna be high, but so will be the variance. At the lower stakes, I assume 5-10k should already show whether you are winning or not, but still-EV and EV ROI could have a big gap between themselves. I've grinded myself 6-max,9-max and 18-players and variance was relatively high. So I expect 45 to bring even more of it at the tables.

      -As for the 100 games example, I think you can 100% go win/lose/BE no matter how good you are. It's no sample at all.
    • iSoOwnYou
      iSoOwnYou
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      Joined: 27.11.2014 Posts: 642
      thanks kurk:f_drink:
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
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      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Cheers, mate :)
    • Crrrrrrr
      Crrrrrrr
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      Joined: 13.05.2012 Posts: 91
      Check this out if you want to see probabilities of downswings.

      http://www.deucescracked.com/blogs/basemetal/92141-45-Seat-Calculated-Downswing-Probability-Graphs

      "These graphs indicate the chances of hitting certain sized swings. The plots show the chance of this sized swing or greater. For example if you play 9 seat SnGs with a 5% roi there is a 54% chance of seeing a 60BI or greater swing in 5000 games. This means in your next 5000 games there is 54% chance you will see a 60, or 65, or 95, or 1000BI swing. Seeing a 65BI swing means you will have had a 60BI one. You can look at it from the other perspective and say that (100 – 54)% = 46% of the time in the next 5000 game block you will not see a swing as big as 60BI’s."
      http://www.deucescracked.com/blogs/basemetal/96441-Links-to-Downswing-Probability-Graphs
    • iSoOwnYou
      iSoOwnYou
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2014 Posts: 642
      thanks crrr i cant really understand them graphs =/ thanks for posting though!
    • Crrrrrrr
      Crrrrrrr
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2012 Posts: 91
      ahah.

      If you take the graph for 45-man SnGs with a ROI of 20% :

      After playing 1000 games, there are ~76% of chance that at some point during those 1000 games, you had a downswing of >= 40BI. 50% of chance that you had a downswing of >=50BI.
    • iSoOwnYou
      iSoOwnYou
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2014 Posts: 642
      ah thanks man i think i get it now.

      does this mean looking at same chart if you play 100 games, there's ~ 10% chance you'll lose >=40bis :f_o:
    • Crrrrrrr
      Crrrrrrr
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      Joined: 13.05.2012 Posts: 91
      yup :f_frown:
    • iSoOwnYou
      iSoOwnYou
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      Joined: 27.11.2014 Posts: 642
      wow thanks, learning is going nicely here! :) :f_drink:
    • iSoOwnYou
      iSoOwnYou
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2014 Posts: 642
      in hardgeus' guide on 2p2 he played 750 and had maximum downswing of 11 buyins i think and he was using this as basis of his bankroll management suggestions, so either he was just running good with variance, or his style was less variance prone - i guess this also comes into it. Two 20% players could both play different styles one is more variance than the other
    • Vainis
      Vainis
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.02.2010 Posts: 75
      I started to play 45's this year and now have a little graph. It is 0,25 0,5 1 and 1,5$ graph. My biggest down was 28BI by playing 1,5 as u know it is turbos so I think I am lucky with only 28BI down :) And my ROI is ~20.



      Like in the begining I am facing STOP point. Not going up, but still not down :)
      I hope it will be helpful for u somehow.
    • iSoOwnYou
      iSoOwnYou
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2014 Posts: 642
      Vainis thanks this is very helpful I've been playing 0.25's and doing well but very small sample 125 games (normal speed) and i'm getting kinda petrified of suddenly hitting a 50bi downswing or something. With your graph and also the 2p2 Hardgeus thread I am going to put those thoughts out of my mind and just play on. I tend to pass up small edges to avoid difficult spots - so hopefully this helps with the variance. Thanks mate.
    • iSoOwnYou
      iSoOwnYou
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2014 Posts: 642
      Also if you want to study together sometime that would be great! as we play similar format, maybe in a bit when i have more experience with 1's under my belt? My last 4 games are 1's in graph rest are 0.25's.

    • Vainis
      Vainis
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.02.2010 Posts: 75
      It would be cool!:) Be free to write me when u'll get a little bigger sample ;) It is always better to work with someone. Just one thing, my english is not in the best shape but I am working with it :D
    • MindVala
      MindVala
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      Joined: 23.01.2015 Posts: 7
      :f_drink: