- 10.02.2015, 15:01
- This post has been edited 8 time(s), it was last edited by kurrkabin: 10.02.2015 18:09.
Originally posted by MagXedinHi everyone!
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $20(BB) Replayer
Dealt to Hero J K
fold, fold, Hero raises to $40, fold, BB calls $20
FLOP ($100) A 7 J
BB checks, Hero bets $50, BB calls $50
TURN ($200) A 7 J Q
BB checks, Hero bets $100, BB raises to $442 (AI), Hero calls $342
RIVER ($1,084) A 7 J Q 8
im never folding turn right?
should i bet in the first place?
I find this hand very interesting, so I decided to boost a further discussion and put a bit on insights:
Here's the original thread:
So, let's start with breaking down the numbers. I used CREV(card runners EV) to help me do some of it:
Basically, our opponent's call range, looks something like this:
The spots hands with the little colors in them, indicate weight. Basically, that means 30% of the time he flats with that hand. The other times, he decides to fold or 3bet.
In our example, we give villain to flat 30% of his A2o-A4o, A2s-A4s and also flat 25% of his 22-33 pocket pairs and 45% of his weak suited kings, suited queens and lowish suited Jx. That is, because, I expect the average villain to play most of these hands differently preflop, but flat every now and then.
The equity we have vs that range is...87%! That is just huge. It's enormous.
However, that doesn't really mean, he is going to fold to our cbet all the time. After playing with ranges a bit, I think villain will call with every FD(not raise, as we have the second nut FD), every mid pair and every third pair. He is going to raise with top pair or better. That means all his Ax hands(which are just a few) and his 2 pair hands-which are just a few combos of J7.
For simplicity, I assume that we never fold vs a check-raise and are ready to get all the chips in. Our equity is about 50-51%. Here's a visualization:
Not that great anymore, is it? Given that he c/raises with that range, we know he is going to c/r us about 5,5% of the time.
He's folding about 56% of the time and call with the other part of his range...which we crush!
Here's villain's equity when he decides to check/call and his check/calling hands:
On the turn, they are really just a few things consider.
-if we bet-what worse is calling? We might even make Jx fold and it's much more likely to get value from it on the river if we check behind here.
-if we bet and get check/raised...we hate life! The chances he's doing this with a worse hand are close to zero(readless) and we are not great shape-yet we need to call due to how many outs we have. Any heart is good, we also have gutter to give us a straight, we can make some 2 better 2 pairs, trips... But all in all, we are behind.
-For those reasons, I find no incentive to actually bet the turn. We bloat the size of the pot, make almost everything worse fold and iso ourselves vs better hands only when we need no protection give how many good river cards can help us.
Given the fact we decided to cbet the flop
Now I have a few questions:
-What's our plan on future streets if we cbet?
-Can we get 3 streets of value with our hand?
-Are we happy stacking off here?
-What is the best way to extract value?
-Is villain ever going to bluff raise on this board?
My initial logic if we decide to cbet on the flop or not goes as follow:
-We can't extract 3 streets of value with our hand. Yes villain is going to c/r better hands almost always, but villain c/c range is never calling a 3barrel. Or at least, very rarely. If villain is on a FD(which will happen only 4,7% of the times, since we have 2 blockers), we are getting all the money in almost always when it hits. So we don't miss value when the FD completes.
-If villain's on a FD that missed, we are going to get villain to semi-bluff lead with it on the turn/possibly river some % of the time even and hence that makes it up somehow for the value we lose if we c/b. Once again-villain having FD is very unlikely and it covers only 4.7% of his whole flatting range preflop.
So that leads us to another question-How to get most money of the majority of his c/c range(which is mid pairs and third pairs) and take the least variance/best line against his value range, which are flipping against?
-If Villain's mid pairs -a.k.a Jx are calling 2 streets, but not 3 streets unless they improve, we then don't lose value if we bet turn/river as opposed to flop/turn.
-Villain's 3rd pairs -7x are folding to a turn barrel very often, but otherwise would prolly still call for a turn bet since our line looks weak on the flop.
-We reduce the variance by taking a c/b line vs villain's 2 pairs and Ax hands since we can control the pot better and also outdraw him. After all, we are flipping vs that range if we stack off on the flop, which actually could be a minus EV move, considering the ICM tax we pay, since this is a 6-max SnG.
-Villain is hardly ever going to c/r with a worse draw or a bluff on the flop. However, we might decide to bluff turn/river and this way we get more value from his bluffs as opposed to cbetting the flop.
So all in all, I like c/b on the flop better as opposed to cbetting for the reasons above. If we decide to cbet, I strongly suggest c/b on this turn since it's so hard to get value.
I would be very happy if there are some insights on the topic and possibly some arguments towards or against my analysis.