Winrate reduces as you spend time on a limit

    • elhh82
      elhh82
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      i notice that everytime i move up a limit, i go on an upswing.

      Whsn i first started at NL10, i quickly got up to $130 or so but then got stuck for a long time before breaking $150

      Once i moved up to NL25, it took me only maybe a week to hit $500 (BB/100 of over 20) but then.. 3 more weeks before i got to $700.

      And then i moved up to NL50 and am on an upswing again. (hope i don't jinx myself here)

      Anyway, does this mean that at every limit the opponents slowly wise up to my style of play (meaning lots of people are using software), thus adapting and thus making my play less profitable? Or maybe its me getting frustrated after a while at that limit and thus affecting my play and making it less +EV.
  • 6 replies
    • Alafoe
      Alafoe
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.08.2008 Posts: 202
      I would not overvaluate software. But your experience is much more better thatn swing down from first hands...
    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,382
      I think its both. Regulars get stats on you and you feel at ease at the limit and let your guard down.

      Solution:
      - Bear in mind regulars can prob see your stats and use them against him.
      - Don't let your guard down. Ever.
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      Originally posted by elhh82
      i notice that everytime i move up a limit, i go on an upswing.

      Whsn i first started at NL10, i quickly got up to $130 or so but then got stuck for a long time before breaking $150

      Once i moved up to NL25, it took me only maybe a week to hit $500 (BB/100 of over 20) but then.. 3 more weeks before i got to $700.

      And then i moved up to NL50 and am on an upswing again. (hope i don't jinx myself here)

      Anyway, does this mean that at every limit the opponents slowly wise up to my style of play (meaning lots of people are using software), thus adapting and thus making my play less profitable? Or maybe its me getting frustrated after a while at that limit and thus affecting my play and making it less +EV.
      that's not winrates, that's variance.
    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Silver
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      i have noticed the exact same thing.
    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Silver
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      i am doing something about it though. just decide that you are going to lose some money. maybe 2 BI. if that.

      and play extra super conservative when you see a few regulards, this should mess their stats up a little. or call become a calling station.

      plus it makes poker a little more fun and different. yes it is gambling but just consider it a small investment. plus you are not going to lose 100% anyway.
    • Reverand221
      Reverand221
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.02.2008 Posts: 264
      i cannot confirm this. it is variance for sure. and of course your game, many dont realize that they dont play their a game all the time - in fact, you dont play the a game most of the time.