New to pro play

    • fishdonkeyluckbox
      fishdonkeyluckbox
      Basic
      Joined: 06.03.2015 Posts: 1
      I started playing about 10 years ago and have just recently shifted to full time professional play in the last three months. I'm playing mostly 2/5 at my local casino. Out of 60 sessions only three have been losing ones and I'm waiting for variance to kick in. Is this is a sign that I'm playing too conservatively or is it simply a purple patch? I'm winning between $150-$1000 each session. Should I be anticipating a big run of losses?
  • 3 replies
    • Lazza61
      Lazza61
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 23.03.2011 Posts: 9,164
      Hey fishdonkeyluckbox,

      With 57 winning sessions out of 60 I wouldn't be thinking about variance or changing the way I play. I would just be laughing and rubbing money on my titties. :f_biggrin: But seriously, you may have found yourself a big fish pool.

      I remember reading somewhere that after Doyle Brunson came back from his cancer survival (not the latest one), he didn't book a losing session for a long time (2 years rings a bell but I'm not certain).

      Keep crushing :gl:

      Laz
    • IvicaIliev77
      IvicaIliev77
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.05.2012 Posts: 3,335
      Live variance is brutal as you play very small sample of hands and it will take forever to even out variance when running bad/getting setup/loosing with stronger hands.
      I played for 1 month and was up more than 500 euros with running bellow EV minimum 7 buy ins on NL200 (1-2 game). On average I played about 24 hands per hour and during that month I grinded about 90 hours if I can recall correctly. You can play for nights, be card dead or even when you have value hand fish gets lucky when he stacks off on flop and by river hits trips or 2nd pair for example or backdoor flush!
      So just couple of advices for you if you plan on continuing to grind live poker:
      - Be prepared for massive BE (brake even) stretches because card distribution will be brutal
      - People live are more of calling stations and therefore bluffing them will not work frequently enough (it will just in fact increase your variance)
      - Playing TAG with spice of LAG style is the best strategy to beat calling stations and bad regs at those live games. However due to low sample of hands you will need to put tons more hours (7x more in fact vs online day I counted that in 1 day online playing ZOOM I grind what I would grind for a full week of live play!) to even hope to run with your expected value

      Live play is fun if you enjoy playing live with other people, socializing, thinking that you have additional edge, playing 1 vs many tables online, being more focused etc
      It is certainly something that I would not advise anybody without super strong roll (as swings can be brutal) and only if you plan to play it super frequently like minimum I would say 120 hours per month which gets you per month about 3k hands sample which is JOKE online and in real life too so after full year you would get like 36k hands which could end up being OKish sample but still a huge laugh where you could run whole year bellow EV easily or be card dead :)

      GL and HF! :)
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Well the thing is live winrates are so high usually, that even a long period of runbad you can still have made money in as opposed to online.