Another math question (-:

    • Klabautermann
      Klabautermann
      Global
      Joined: 16.02.2013 Posts: 1,760
      Hello, today in our Skype group we had a discussion about this hand:
      https://www.weaktight.com/h/5516cd19a52511241f8b531a

      Is the jam +EV vs. Villains range with pure air ? (From a GTO point)
      Villains range: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o+,K2o+,Q3o+,J7o+,T7o+,97o+,87o
      Villain will hit a flush in 3,7% ok lets say 4%.

      How can I calculate if the River jam is + or -EV?

      Villain Stack(SB): 1535
      Hero Stack(BB): 1465
  • 16 replies
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
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      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 581
    • svonja
      svonja
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      Joined: 27.05.2010 Posts: 212
      too much calculation for me, i was bad in math hahahhaha
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
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      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 581
      http://www.splitsuit.com/should-i-play-gto-poker
      (Gotta love the Sweeny) :heart: :heart: :heart:

      Do you mean, what is the odds villain will fold to a shove on the river, believing you have a flush over the split pot strait board, when you have air?
      Given in this example he calls it doesn't look good. (busto).
      (pot divided by shove) - rake = villain must fold better than 80%
    • maciusN
      maciusN
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      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 427
      Isnt the foldequity needed the amount of flushes in villains range? according to my calcs he has not that many flushes in his range. at best like 8% or smth. so when villain folds at least 8% of the time this should be a profitable jam, right? . not taking rake into account. and by jaming we prevent villain from jaming himself and bringing us in a really ugly spot.
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
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      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      ugh this is a really disgusting jam unless you have a read that villain is a whale... What do you mean from a GTO point? Doesn't that imply that the EV will be 0EV for both players?

      To calculate if the river jam is + or - EV...

      %heFolds * pot|heFolds + %heCalls * ((finalPot * equity) - investment)

      If you just want to know what your required FE should be in order to at least break even with your jam, then:

      investment / (pot + investment). in this case...
      1345 / (240 + 1345) = 0.8485

      So you need ~85% FE in order to break even on the jam. If you think he folds more than this then shoving ATC becomes profitable.

      We don't care how often people generally hit flushes, the fact is that we are on the river, there was a FD on the flop, and villain is now on the river with some range. We only care about what % of his range has the flush, not how often ppl hit flushes from holding 2 suited cards (is that what you meant in your OP?)

      You should take that preflop opening range now and shave off hands that don't play that particular way on each street. Once you get to the river, split his range into 2 based on (1) combos that call a jam, and (2) combos that fold. To get the % combos that call, (combosCall / totalCombos). Then your FE = 1 - %calls. Then use this information in the above EV calculation to figure out if your jam is +EV or not.
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
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      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 581
      The Rake of course is large when the villian calls and you split the pot :-(

      I hope the OP doesn't mind if I post this similar situation where I dodge being felted, and the villain shoves with zero # fold equity

      888poker Hand History
      $0.10/$0.20 Blinds No Limit Holdem -
      Foggia 9 Max (Real Money)
      Seat 1 is the button
      Total number of players : 9

      Seat 1: Villain ( $25.15 )
      Seat 2: ( $20 )
      Seat 3: ( $20 )
      Seat 4: ( $24.25 )
      Seat 5: ( $23.37 )
      Seat 6: ( $26.66 )
      Seat 7: GoOnCal1 ( $11.39 )
      Seat 9: ( $16.04 )
      Seat 10: ( $24.49 )
      SB posts [$0.10]
      BB posts [$0.20]

      ** Dealing down cards **

      Dealt to GoOnCal1 :Jc: :Js:
      folds
      folds
      folds
      GoOnCal1 raises [$0.40]
      folds
      folds
      Villain calls [$0.40]
      folds
      folds

      ** Dealing flop ** :As: :Th: :Td:
      GoOnCal1 checks
      Villain checks
      **
      Dealing turn **
      :Tc:
      GoOnCal1 bets [$0.40]
      Villain calls [$0.40]
      ** Dealing river **
      :Ts:
      GoOnCal1 checks
      Villain bets [$24.35]
      GoOnCal1 calls [$10.59]
      ** Summary **
      Villain shows :Kd: :Kh:
      GoOnCal1 shows :Js: :Jc:
      Board :As: :Tc: :Td: :Th: :Ts:
      Villain collected [ $10.96 ]
      GoOnCal1 collected [ $10.97 ]

      House Wins 4.4BB !!!

      Edit 04/05/2015
      Hero fold river loses 0.80 vs Hero calls river loses 0.43, Villain ditto. The call is correct.
      Scenario2
      Villain cks river, Hero cks.. split pot both players win 0.05each. (+1/2BB) Villain should ck.
      Scenario 3
      Hero folds? Villian wins $1.71
      Great Example for NASH equilibrium


      (# 99.9% if mis-click, timeout, disconnect considered)
    • maciusN
      maciusN
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 427
      The Rake of course is large when the villan calls and you split the pot :-(
      the rake is the same when u check, villain jams and you call. you wouldnt fold right?
    • maciusN
      maciusN
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 427
      ugh this is a really disgusting jam unless you have a read that villain is a whale...
      thats not true imo. can u please explain your thought process which made you think this is a "really disgusting jam"?
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 581
      Hi maciusN
      :-)
      No I couldn't fold. I felt villain should have checked back, as the extra rake was unnecessary. Brought on one of my cranky old man episodes.
      I would recommend when playing beginners that you shove any board a player cannot beat as sometimes they make the mistake of folding their hand
      ;-)
    • maciusN
      maciusN
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      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 427


      Hers a simillar hand btw. not exactly the same situation but quite simillar.
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
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      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      Originally posted by maciusN
      ugh this is a really disgusting jam unless you have a read that villain is a whale...
      thats not true imo. can u please explain your thought process which made you think this is a "really disgusting jam"?
      because it's an insane overbet and any semi-decent player will fold the straight which happens to be on the board anyway. all flushes beat you so you obviously try to get hero called by a hand wanting to split. i just don't see how anyone can call here without a flush unless you have a read that he is really bad OR you have some crazy levelling dynamic.
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
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      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 581
      One More
      Board is a Royal Flush

      (MarciusN How do you post a video rather than a link?)
    • atron90
      atron90
      Gold
      Joined: 27.09.2011 Posts: 35
      interesting
    • maciusN
      maciusN
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      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 427
      (MarciusN How do you post a video rather than a link?)


      :coolface:
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
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      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 581
      Thanx MarciusN
      I will try that next time
      :-)
    • Ganbat75
      Ganbat75
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      Joined: 19.08.2015 Posts: 5
      Fifty fifty percents? Does players' stacks matter on odds in poker?