Actual odds vs pot-odds.

    • typohh
      typohh
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.09.2008 Posts: 1,188
      If you are in a situation where you beat some procetange of villains range of hands, but there are practically no draws how good odds do you need to call? Before I answe that question I want to explain why there is little reason to 2bet in this situation. If the board is uncoordinated, then there is little to fear that villain will draw out if you do not raise, however if you do raise he will call you most of the time when he has you beat, and he will fold most of the time when you have the best hand. So effectively you either end up valuebetting villains hand, or bluffing with the best hand, neither of which is usefull, quite the opposite.

      Most discussions revolve around potodds, if you get the odds you can call, if not you should fold unless you get implied odds. However, many mistakenly think that also applies to made hands versus villains range, in truth it only applies to draws or river decisions. The reason is this, say villain bets full pot ($1000), now if villain has a weaker hand 35% of the time you can definately call him. The final pot is $3000, after you spent $1000 calling, and you end up winning $1050 on average (35% out of $3000), so your net gain is $50. In this situation you only need the best hand 33.3% of the time break even. However the problem arrises when there are further streets to be played. If this bet happened on the turn, and you KNOW you have the best hand 35% of the time, and villain has bet pot, now river comes blank and villain again bet pots, and again you get the odds since nothing has changed. Now you ended up calling $1000 pot bet on the turn and $3000 pot bet on the river, in order to win a pot worth $9000 in total. So you spent $4000, to win 35% of $9000 which is only $3150, for a net loss of $850.

      The more streets are ahead, and the more agressive your opponent is, the closer to 50% of the time you need to have the best hand in order to justify calling. On the river you only need to concearn with the immidate odds, but especially preflop & flop, despite getting potodds against villain range, it isnt enough to justify a call.

      Just keep in mind this concept does not apply to situations where you have implied odds, such as draws.
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