Advanced statistics.

    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,809
      you are not even wrong
    • shatteredaces
      shatteredaces
      Basic
      Joined: 15.04.2015 Posts: 141
      Originally posted by redskwerl
      you are not even wrong

      I am afraid not, maths does not lie, neither does the breakdown of actual process and the results of findings. By timing luck in your seat you could receive ace ace 1/1 ratio every hand.

      In 1,000,000 decks according to probabilities of 1/221 there will be a possible 4524 aces aligned to your seat, a single deck has 1 possibility of aces aligned to your seat, you have 4524 possibilities of getting a deck aligning aces to your seat, with a single deck you have 1 possibility.
      I am not surprised the game is so action packed.

      4,000,000 possible aces to hit.
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 590


    • sukmanto
      sukmanto
      Basic
      Joined: 19.04.2015 Posts: 1
      :f_drink:
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Gold
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,960
      instead of receiving AA every hand i would rather prefer to win with 72o everytime tbh
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 590
    • shatteredaces
      shatteredaces
      Basic
      Joined: 15.04.2015 Posts: 141
      Originally posted by Tomaloc
      instead of receiving AA every hand i would rather prefer to win with 72o everytime tbh
      I sometimes prefer the lag approach, the whole point and concept which some of the locals are now trying to mock in the hope of dissuading the readers that I have any merit, is that you can not play the decks, the multi deck system allows the game physics to completely change from the game physics of using a single deck.

      It changes in such a way I would define it to be -EV

      There is no if's or but's to be added, all the readers are capable of maths and understanding this. Online poker does not work with the present system in place. The dynamics is making an untrue game, ''donks'' getting lucky by timing taking down huge mtt's, allowing them the funds to go onto the world circuit, and declaring they are said pro's.
      That is why the once days of champions is over, the champions are now becoming outnumbered.


      4,000,000 aces to hit

      4,000,000 kings to hit


      think about it, not just just pass it off , when the facts are more than obviously blatant.

      It is very simple, if I have two decks of cards pre-shuffled, and you have to pick one deck , how many opportunities do you have of aces been in your seat order in the deck sequence?

      The truth is if you pick one of the two decks, no longer is the shuffle of the deck defining what cards you get, your choice defines what cards you get, the same as timing on the internet defines which cards you get, and not an even probability function of a single decks shuffle.
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 590
      Originally posted by shatteredaces
      Originally posted by Tomaloc
      instead of receiving AA every hand i would rather prefer to win with 72o everytime tbh
      I sometimes prefer the lag approach, the whole point and concept which some of the locals are now trying to mock in the hope of dissuading the readers that I have any merit, is that you can not play the decks, the multi deck system allows the game physics to completely change from the game physics of using a single deck.

      It changes in such a way I would define it to be -EV

      There is no if's or but's to be added, all the readers are capable of maths and understanding this. Online poker does not work with the present system in place. The dynamics is making an untrue game, ''donks'' getting lucky by timing taking down huge mtt's, allowing them the funds to go onto the world circuit, and declaring they are said pro's.
      That is why the once days of champions is over, the champions are now becoming outnumbered.


      4,000,000 aces to hit

      4,000,000 kings to hit


      think about it, not just just pass it off , when the facts are more than obviously blatant.

      It is very simple, if I have two decks of cards pre-shuffled, and you have to pick one deck , how many opportunities do you have of aces been in your seat order in the deck sequence?

      The truth is if you pick one of the two decks, no longer is the shuffle of the deck defining what cards you get, your choice defines what cards you get, the same as timing on the internet defines which cards you get, and not an even probability function of a single decks shuffle.
      Cheers Shattered

      If you read my replies you will see I have tried to make sense of your comments, and reply honestly.
      You are welcome to try and illicit support for your ideas here, but it seems you have found none.

      The simpler you try to express your idea the more obvious it is that you are not making any sense nor offering any evidence.

      A choice of random decks leads to ...random decks



    • shatteredaces
      shatteredaces
      Basic
      Joined: 15.04.2015 Posts: 141
      Originally posted by GoOnCal1
      Originally posted by shatteredaces
      Originally posted by Tomaloc
      instead of receiving AA every hand i would rather prefer to win with 72o everytime tbh
      I sometimes prefer the lag approach, the whole point and concept which some of the locals are now trying to mock in the hope of dissuading the readers that I have any merit, is that you can not play the decks, the multi deck system allows the game physics to completely change from the game physics of using a single deck.

      It changes in such a way I would define it to be -EV

      There is no if's or but's to be added, all the readers are capable of maths and understanding this. Online poker does not work with the present system in place. The dynamics is making an untrue game, ''donks'' getting lucky by timing taking down huge mtt's, allowing them the funds to go onto the world circuit, and declaring they are said pro's.
      That is why the once days of champions is over, the champions are now becoming outnumbered.


      4,000,000 aces to hit

      4,000,000 kings to hit


      think about it, not just just pass it off , when the facts are more than obviously blatant.

      It is very simple, if I have two decks of cards pre-shuffled, and you have to pick one deck , how many opportunities do you have of aces been in your seat order in the deck sequence?

      The truth is if you pick one of the two decks, no longer is the shuffle of the deck defining what cards you get, your choice defines what cards you get, the same as timing on the internet defines which cards you get, and not an even probability function of a single decks shuffle.
      Cheers Shattered

      If you read my replies you will see I have tried to make sense of your comments, and reply honestly.
      You are welcome to try and illicit support for your ideas here, but it seems you have found none.

      The simpler you try to express your idea the more obvious it is that you are not making any sense nor offering any evidence.

      A choice of random decks leads to ...random decks
      But a choice of random decks does not allow the function of probability or does it allow a single decks natural path of shuffle over time.

      Are you suggesting that if a donk by timing of decks gets 10 good hands in a row at the start of a tourney, this does not effect outcome?.

      Are you suggesting that this does not effect probability distribution over a set period of time, per tourney....

      are you saying you would be happy if that by bad timing you received the likes of 93 every go?
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 590
      I am not suggesting anything accept I think you are confused. I have already stated my position.

    • shatteredaces
      shatteredaces
      Basic
      Joined: 15.04.2015 Posts: 141
      Originally posted by GoOnCal1
      I am not suggesting anything accept I think you are confused. I have already stated my position.
      I am certainly not confused, it is very simple to understand.

      If we have 10 decks of cards pre-shuffled, and had 2 tables playing, in which by timing of the hands, they get a new deck every hand, then timing of the decks is picking the hand you receive and not the pre-shuffle
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 590
      Yeah , but still random so you get a random hand
      Is there some other topic you'd like to discuss?

      What's your view on mechanical shuffle machines?
    • shatteredaces
      shatteredaces
      Basic
      Joined: 15.04.2015 Posts: 141
      Originally posted by GoOnCal1
      Yeah , but still random so you get a random hand
      Is there some other topic you'd like to discuss?

      What's your view on mechanical shuffle machines?
      The mechanical shuffle machine is the same as a human doing the shuffle, however there is also nothing wrong with a computerised RNG. It is also nothing to do with the randomness of the hand, it is timing of events,

      example = you decide to have a go at a bigger buyin, spend say $100, but by timing of the decks, all through the game you get bad timing and receive only bad hands. You could be the best player in the world and there is nothing you can do.

      Would you consider that to be a fare consistent game?
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 590
      fare = fair :-)
      The game is fair. Sometimes I get lucky (like the video I post above :-), time does not affect the random distribution of cards. Cards are not "predestined". Pre destiny, luck, and so on should not really be valid terms in a discussion of random probability. Yes you can calculate the odds random allocations will favour outcomes to your advantage, over a short population such as a tournament. But in the long term chaos will rule.

      I also disagree about machine shuffles. I work with machines all my life. Every machine is different. No machine works the same all the time. I say fair in that unless you can spot a pattern, you cannot take advantage. In the casino a dealer can cold deck you anytime he likes if he is dishonest.

      Back to machines. All machines require maintenance. Every machine these days requires a mechanic, greaser, electrician just to keep going, replace wearing parts etc. This is just a statement of normality, not a truth. In manufacturing or other machine process, the product will be required to be within specification. When the process is go out of specification, there is a stop and correction.

      If we have a random shuffle machine, (like in maybe some casino) what is the process by which we determine the product is within specification? By this I mean how does the casino verify that the shuffle is in fact random? This would be very difficult in my opinion. If the dealer then muckrakes and reshuffles, looks, checks, counts, then I guesses it is fair.

      What are your general thoughts on Human vs Machine vs a virtual random hand generator that you would approve of ?

      I would have to rate them in reverse chronological order. Maybe we can agree on something?
      :-)
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,809
      you either get dealt random cards and the game is fair or you don't get dealt random cards and the game isn't fair. you can't have it both ways. make up your mind, yo.
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 590
      It can be non random, but if nobody knows that then the game can still be fair ?

      Like say at a home game, one of the kings falls on the floor, if nobody knows, the likelihood that you'll being drawing for the missing king is even for each player
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,809
      true, i talked about this earlier in the thread.
    • shatteredaces
      shatteredaces
      Basic
      Joined: 15.04.2015 Posts: 141
      Originally posted by GoOnCal1






      If we have a random shuffle machine, (like in maybe some casino) what is the process by which we determine the product is within specification? By this I mean how does the casino verify that the shuffle is in fact random? This would be very difficult in my opinion. If the dealer then muckrakes and reshuffles, looks, checks, counts, then I guesses it is fair.

      What are your general thoughts on Human vs Machine vs a virtual random hand generator that you would approve of ?

      I would have to rate them in reverse chronological order. Maybe we can agree on something?
      :-)
      I do rate the RNG, I know it has been testing by citigal several times, random is random if the outcomes are not known. I rate humans in a casino, I could not imagine a wsop dealer cheating. Mechanical machines may get paper jams.

      Please do not misunderstand me, I have no problem with the first part of the process and the RNG like your link showed. It is the there after that. You can ask pokerstars yourself, I do have all this in emails, the decks then are placed into a line waiting to be distributed to which table needs one first.

      So you are no longer relying on the shuffle that has predetermined your unknown variants you will receive.

      You are relying on deck given by timing of what variants you receive.

      I lost on aces tonight about 5 times out of 6, I received by bad timing more of the 18%, this was all in within about an hour of play, my bankroll can not keep taking hits like this, there is to many aces out there to hit , this induces continuous action and the reverse effect is bad cards and no action, down swings by bad timing is not natural poker and the way a single deck runs.

      You can not offset a sequence and frequency rate without consequences.

      Maybe I should redefine it , you do not get your own cards, you get somebodies else's cards from their deck that went back, a single deck gives you your cards according to shuffle, according to a frequency of 1/221 for any given two cards.

      Having a new pre-shuffled deck every hand is different, the sequences stacked in line resembling a scratch card, rows and columns,

      if player 1 had a sequence from a single based distribution 123/321/132/213 for 4 shuffles, this would look very different if we removed shuffle 2 and 3 and replaced them with shuffle 100 and shuffle 4015.


      The internet does this often repeating values, k5/5k/k3/37/k7/

      consider the why's this happens, and the scatchcard of rows and columns, or imagine the game battle ship , x1,y2=k

      consider the consequence of receiving several losing cooler decks in a row, your stack will not survive the hit.
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 590
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,809
      Originally posted by shatteredaces
      the decks then are placed into a line waiting to be distributed to which table needs one first.

      So you are no longer relying on the shuffle that has predetermined your unknown variants you will receive.

      You are relying on deck given by timing of what variants you receive.
      Ok, now I understand where you went wrong.

      There is no predetermined deck, that you are supposed to get. You get a deck from a line of random decks. It doesn't matter how we choose which deck you get. We don't know how each deck is shuffled, because they are shuffled randomly. Whichever deck you get, it is just as random and fair, as if there only existed a single random deck (like, in the universe), and you were getting dealt cards from this one Deck. The fact that there are other decks, also shuffled randomly, is irrelevant. The decks are all the same! It doesn't matter which one you get, they are all randomized in a fair way. You can gain no advantage or disadvantage by getting one deck over another.
      Yes, some decks give you more favorable cards, others give you less favorable cards. This is what a random distribution does, it's completely expected. Again, you are not disadvantaged by this in any way.