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Running nowhere fast: Poker and Fitness

    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      Wow - what a great day all around!!

      Week 2 Day 6 Update

      Goal 1 - Hand Volume - More play than expected managed on the day. 543 hands played in 156 minutes (401 table minutes). On the week that is now 2,210 hands played in 666 minutes (1,514 table minutes). 310 hands required form the final day in order to hit the weekly target. I would be amazed if I didn't achieve it!

      Goal 2 - Profitability - My best day yet! €4.51 profit on the day. €6.32 profit so far on the week, and losses on the month down to 13.86 (Poker table number only, and as always, EV profit only). My poker bankroll is up to £19.02, which is £2.48 ahead of the target for the week. Barring devastating losses on Day 7, this goal will be achieved on the week.

      Goal 3 - Study - Perhaps the one downside to day 6, I completed no study at all on Day 6. Overall, if I did no more study at all this week, then I'm happy with the study I've done this week. I'm hoping today to do a little bit of preparatory work on some basics to notecaddy. I've never used notecaddy before, so am getting into it as a complete novice. I've started trying, manually, to categorise my opponents to aid in table selection, directly within the poker software, however figure that this must be better, more accurate and more efficient, if I can do it within notecaddy - at the moment, I'm not trying to do much beyond identify the solid (nitty) regulars and the spewy (loose and aggressive) recreational players. These colour coded tags in ipoker though are not especially visible and not visible in the lobbies. In addition, the "buddies" system, which is shown in the software and documented on the website, appears to be disabled and unusable - can anyone confirm please? If it is disabled, I wish they've remove the documentation for it, and indeed all reference to the feature in the software, to stop people wasting their time trying to get it to work! The equivalent functionality, at a glance, looks more powerful and visible in notecaddy.

      Goal 4 - Weight - Wow I didn't expect that! My Day 6 weigh in was 74.5kg - which is 0.5kg below my "ideal weight" and by some margin my lowest weigh in of the year. I'm somewhat sceptical of 1 weight like that which appears a bit of an outlier, so not going to change my behaviour on the back of that. However if it is repeated in the next weigh in, then I will start eating back a proportion of my exercise calories. In this case, the objectives change - no longer about weight loss, and becomes about body change (more muscle, less fat). Though I feel I will always have to watch my calorie intake!

      Goal 5 - Body Fat (KG) - Again, at the Day 6 weigh in, the body fat measure appears a bit of an outlier, and I will seek confirmation at the next weigh in. But the measure for the day was a new low of 14.4KG (19.3%).

      Goal 6 - Exercise - Day 6 was a scheduled rest day. Day 7 will also be a rest day. The rest days are in preparation for a monumental effort on Week 3 Day 1 where I will have my 1 hour time trial and my goal will be to break through the 40KM barrier.

      Goal 7 - Blog updates (KG) - Completed on schedule, and nice and early again :)
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      Week 2 was a lot better than week 1. Overall my weight/fitness programme is a resounding success .... my poker is improving, and will hopefully start to show as much progress as the rest of my goals.....

      Week 2 Update

      Goal 1 - Hand Volume My goal for the week was 14 hours play and 2,500 hands. I achieved my hand goal by playing 2,535 hands in 753 minutes. Unfortunatley, 753 minutes (12 hours 33 minutes) is 1 hour and 27 minutes short of the 14 hour goal. I wasn't too focused on this aspect of the goal, and only just realised I missed it. The shortage in actual time, was made up for partially by multitabling a little more than I expected (1,737 minutes - so an average of 2.3 tables at a time)

      Goal 2 - Profitability My goal for the week was to increase my bankroll to at least £16.54 (€22.85/$25.66). This was achieved comfortably, and my bankroll now stands at £19.18 (€26.49/$29.75). My on table EV recorded a profit in HM2 of €6.55 (£4.74/$7.36) which translates into a profit of 12.9 bb/100.

      Goal 3 - Study I don't measure my study time formally, however am confident I achieved more than 7 hours study on the week, I completed studies of videos 2 and 3 of W34z3ls walkthrough. I also worked on my HUD and started investigations into Notecaddy (without any tangible progress to show).

      Goal 4 - Weight I finished the week at 75kg. I view my ideal weight as 75 kg. Perfection!

      Goal 5 - Body Fat My weight may be "perfection" but there is still a lot of progress to be made as far as "body composition" goes. And progress I continue to make. Of the 7 measures during the week, 3 of them were below 15.0KG, which was my target. The lowest was 14.4KG.

      Goal 6 - Exercise I smashed my 1 hour time trial in week 2, setting a new record of 39.33KM at resistance 10. I'm now getting very close to 40KM which is the point at which I will move up to resistance level 11.

      Goal 7 - Blog updates Updated daily, before midday all week.

      Week 3 Goals

      Goal 1 - Hand Volume I will increase my hand volume goal this week. I will aim for 2 hours play a day again, but this time averaging 3 tables at a time. Crunching some simple maths again, thats 6 table hours per day, 42 table hours per week. Last week I managed 2,535 hands in 1,737 table minutes - that's a rate of 87.6 hands per hour, which gives me a target of 3,678 hands in the week. My goal for the week is 3,678 hands, a minimum of 14 hours play and a minimum of 42 table hours play.

      Goal 2 - Profitability My goal for the week is again going to be 10 bb/100 over my volume goal. 10 bb/100 over 3,678 hands would be a profit of €7.36 (£5.33/$8.26). My goal for the week is therefore an ending bankroll of £24.51

      Goal 3 - Study This week I would like to complete studies of the next 2 videos in W34z3ls walkthrough. It would be nice to recap the videos I've already studied, to do some database work and session recaps, and to make progress on Notecaddy. I will no longer set a formal time goal, as I don't measure this and so am guessing as to whether I achieve it or not. My formal goal for the week is to complete studies of Episodes 4 and 5 of W34z3ls walkthrough.

      Goal 4 - Weight I will no longer bother tracking exact calorie consumption when my weight the previous week is at (or below) my view of my ideal weight, however I will continue to strive to eat reasonably and healthily! My goal this week is to maintain my weight as close to 75kg as I can ithout going over.

      Goal 5 - Body Fat My current low body fat reading is 14.4KG. My goal over the next week is to have at least one reading below 14.4KG

      Goal 6 - Exercise Again, my target is to set a new record distance in my 1 hour time trial. My stretch goal is to get through the 40KM barrier (and therefore increase resistance the following week from 10 to 11). The time trial takes place on Monday, the rest of the week should involve at least 4 days training in preparation for my next time trial next Monday. My goal is to beat 39.33KM in my 1 hour time trial

      Goal 7 - Blog updates No need to push the boundaries here - My goal is to update my blog before midday (UK time) every day, all week

      If anyone has any guidance/suggestions/ideas for me, I'm very happy to listen :)
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      Its been a GREAT start to the week :)

      Week 3 Day 1 Update

      Goal 1 - Hand Volume - Good start to the week - 596 hands played in 115 minutes (376 Table Minutes)

      Goal 2 - Profitability - Fantastic start to the week. More profit in Day 1 than I made in the whole of week 2! Profit shows as exactly €7.00. THat comes in at 59 bb/100! Another similar day will see me having wiped out all of my Week 1 losses and be back to zero!

      Goal 3 - Study Ok - so Day 1 was not perfect. I haven't started my study for the week yet. Nothing completed at all on Day 1.

      Goal 4 - Weight Creeping up slightly. Not going to overrect and too soon, but definitely need to keep my eye on it! Last weigh in was 75.1KG

      Goal 5 - Body Fat Last measure was 15.2KG (low was 14.4KG). Hoping to see some progress soon - I'm still doing, mostly the right things. Muscle is 27.4KG (high was 28.2KG). THe figure I use mostly for tracking progress (and which seems best to illustrate progress, amongst all of the flux) is the difference between Muscle and Body Fat. Today it was 12.2 KG. THe maximum was 13.2 KG. I have now had 23 consecutive days where the difference has been greater than 11kg. When I started measuring (January 2015) the difference was 10.3KG and fell as low as 9.2KG. I went 21 days before I had my first difference measure over 11KG. That for me illustrates very clear progress over the last 5 months or so, and provides great encouragement to keep doing what I view as the right things. It will, hopefully, get easier now as I move away from trying to lose (a small) amount of weight, and having a calorie deficit, to trying to maintain my weight and no calorie deficit. :)

      Goal 6 - Exercise - BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!!!!!! My goal AND my stretch goal achieved. I wont pretend it was easy, as you'll probably guess from the fact I beat my 40KM goal by just 0.05KM, but I did it! 40.05 KM cycled in 1 hour for an extimated calorie burn of 879 calories at resistance level 10. Next week resistance goes up to level 11, and I set a base new time trial benchmark - this will be deliberately leisurely - my only objective will be to finish the hour! (which I cannot see any way I dont do!)

      Goal 7 - Blog Updates No problem!

      NEW Supplemental goal I've decided to give the pokerstrategy promo Win extra prizes for getting lucky this month a bash. I don't know how many people enter these promos, but hopefully [for me] its sufficiently few to give me a good chance of a prize. I hope to achieve all 4 Lucky Missions. It will be an interesting distraction, gives a chance at bankroll boosting (or bankroll smashing :( ) and, the hope of helping me maintain my Gold pokerstrategy status (being forced to move down from NL5 to NL2 this month has taken its toll on the PS points I'm earning - I might still be able to hit gold, but it won't be straightforward)
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      I've become a bit too relaxed on some of my goals - I need to refocus and re-energise my efforts! Having said that the pokerstrategy twister challenge has been an interesting diversion.

      Week 3 - Day 2 Update

      Supplemental Goal - Pokerstrategy Promo - Getting Lucky - I played 17 x €1 Twister games on netbet and achieved 2 of the 4 pokerstrategy missions. I had 14x€2 games and 3x€4 games, winning 8 of the €2 games and 2 of the €4 games. Winnings of €24 against my outlay of €17 for a net profit of €7. These games are an interesting and, so far, successful distraction.... Its strange how the results fall into sequences as well. I won 6 of my first 7 game. Then I lost 6 of the next 7 games. Finally winning my last 3 games. I intend to keep trying these games to get the last two missions complete (they're tougher than the first two - winning a tournament in the first hand will not be easy ... though its surprising how often, and how weak, an all in first hand will be called by one opponent. And winning the tournament with a Full House or better isn't easy. A full House in Heads Up is a massive hand and the money frequently goes in pre flop - so it's just looking for that lucky break to complete that one....

      Goal 1 - Hand Volume - On target. On Day 2 I played 601 Hands in 122 minutes (376 table minutes). The cumulative total for the week is now 1,197 hands in 237 minutes (752 table minutes).

      Goal 2 - Profitability - A modest profit, but a profit is a profit :) A profit on the day of €0.63. Weekly profit now up to €7.63. However when you add in the Twister profit, my bankroll has surged to £27.02. My target for the week was only to get up to a bankroll of £24.51! Got some breathing space.....

      Graphs do NOT include twister results - it is cash tables only (and for this week, so far, it is NL€2 only)

      Goal 3 - Study Still no study for the week! On Day 2 I used my study time to play Twister games! I suspect I'm likely to do the same on Day 3! Probably not the best long term decision, however I'm enjoying the distraction and, so far, its the best bankroll boosting decision! AT some stage though I MUST return to the best "long term" solution - which is more study!!

      Goal 4 - Weight Definitely creeping up again. The last weigh in was 75.5 KG. Think its imperative that I return to calorie counting/meal tracking on myfitnesspal!

      Goal 5 - Body Fat Last weigh in was 15.3KG (20.3%). I cannot expect to see positive results if I don't do positive things!

      Goal 6 - Exercise I skipped my exercise on Day 2. Can I blame Twister games again? I think that's the first unscheduled skipping of a ride since I started this project :( It will NOT happen again on day 3!!!!

      Goal 7 - Blog Updates Sorted :)
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      Week 3 Day 3

      Supplemental Goal - Pokerstrategy Promo - Getting Lucky - I played 20 x €1 Twisters. My return was €14 for a loss of €6. However I'm happy enough :) The ICM adjustment in HM2 shows results should have been better by €10.76, and therefore a €4.76 profit. And as you may have noted from my cash table posts, I'm quite content to ignore "short term cash flows" and instead concentrate on luck adjusted profitability! I'd much rather a losing day where I played winning poker but got "unlucky" than a winning day where I played losing poker but got "lucky". With hindsight, I wish I'd ignored proper results here in tracking the twisters and instead opted to just report the ICM adjusted results - however for consistency I'm not going to change it now (though I may start to report both). Overall now I've played 37x€1 Twisters for a profit of €1.13 (ICM adjusted profit of €7.03). I've managed 3 of the 4 pokerstrategy missions. I intend to keep playing these, at least until I hit the 4th mission (the tough one - win a tournament in the first hand!!!!!)

      Goal 1 - Hand Volume A good day volume wise. I played 616 hands in 121 minutes (410 table minutes). Totals so far are now 1,813 hands played in 358 minutes (1,162 table minutes) over 3 days.

      Goal 2 - Profitability Success here :) €2.21 profit on the day. Profit for the week now up to €10.07. Losses for the month down to €3.79 ... getting close to getting back to zero! I've also played a little NL5 Zoom on pokerstars - searching for KK for the $250k freeroll. Have won with KK 3 times so far (7 to go), also showing a nice profit of $17.54 from 713 hands. I don't know what it is, but I'm surprised that the Pokerstars games appear softer than the iPoker games! (I think it helps this perception that the software is so much smoother!). The graphs only show my iPoker games.

      Whilst not wanting to sound too much like a broken record .... I don't imagine many are reading this from top to bottom, so I'll repeat, for the iPoker cash games I only have my EV in my reports (by design, by choice) - not my actual wins/losses - I only really get much indication of the overall through my bankroll and the graphs when I publish them here. I'm playing within my comfort zone, so I don't care about short term luck fluctuations - my preference is to monitor results with as much luck/variance stripped out as possible. I want to make the best decisions I can - I really don't care about the short term results. The reason I'm repeating this? There is a clear gap between my reported results (the orange line) and my net winnings (the green line) and my reported bankroll.

      Which reminds me, bankroll as of today is £22.15. Nearly £5 down on yesterday - that surprises me! Hopefully better results on the Twisters today!

      Goal 3 - Study Still not started on the week. A poor effort! I think I "blame" my choice to focus on the Twisters/Pokerstrategy promo (and to an extent the Pokerstars freeroll. My expectation? More of the same today!

      Goal 4 - Weight A slight decrease - last weigh in was 75.3KG. Basically I'm at my "ideal weight" - but I need to be careful and keep my eye on the ball.....

      Goal 5 - Body Fat Latest measure down to 15KG (19.9% Body Fat)

      Goal 6 - Exercise Found it tough and quit after 18 minutes of my planned 1 hour session!! I planned a tougher session - setting heart rate to 150 BPM (about 85% of calculated maximum) and a slow cadence of about 80 RPM however clearly wasn't up to it!! I think the issue was more strength in the legs than cardio. I've decided, with the pressure off on next Mondays time trial (nothing to beat - just a target setting session) that I will rest/recover for the remainder of the week. I don't know if my body is fatigued (probably not, but its a good excuse for a few days off!) but in the last month I've done 19 hours on the exercise bike, for a distance of 669 KM and an estimated calorie burn of 13,587 calories. It makes me feel tired just reading that!

      Goal 7 - Blog Updates Happy Days!
    • vonki
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 6,091
      Hard worker :) too much for me to read but i'm subbing for the graphs :f_biggrin:
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      Thanks Vonki :) No graphs today though I'm afraid, because.....


      Day 4 was a complete unmitigated disaster!!!! The weekly goals are now suspended and I'm not sure what my approach will be, but its now a fight for survival. I rate the probability of going busto before the end of the week at substantially greater than 50%!!!

      It started with the Twister games. I played 17. I won 2 for a return on my €17 of €4!!!!!! (I won't hide from the flip side of that - I LOST 15!!!!! I LOST €13!!!!) With such a tight bankroll, that's a huge hit. I didn't play great, and I made mistakes, but it was nowhere near as bad as the results. My ICM adjustment suggests that instead of losing €13, I should have lost €3.30. Still a loss, but a manageable one.

      Overall, I've played 54 x €1 Twisters for a loss of €12 :( But ICM adjusted, it could have been a profit of €3.60.

      I've consistently stated that I'm not bothered by variance, and short term swings, so long as I'm doing the right things. And I stand by that comment ..... mostly. I'm still not bothered by the individual suckouts, but the cumulative effect on my bankroll has been devastating (and the very reason we need to practice solid BRM - what I'm experiencing, I know is nothing exceptional) - unfortunately, I'm playing at the lowest level already, so cannot move down! Actually that's not quite true - I did start playing the freeroll SnGs (for $0.05 per game) - but that's not for me!! (I won 2 out of 6 - boosting my bankroll by $0.06).

      Anyway, after the Twisters, I started playing my NL€2 cash tables - and quickly lost €2.83 (in 126 hands). Tilt? Nah, I don't suffer from tilt ..... or do I? I played it safe and walked away from the tables for the night, and accepting that meant I was abandoning my volume targets for the week. The profitability targets seemed long gone .... and from there I quickly decided to abandon all of my goals for the week and see where I ended up...

      So where am I? Bankroll currently stands at £12.08.

      And what am I doing now? No structure. No formal goals. I'm just going to play and see what happens. Roll the dice a bit.... (If I were "responsible" then I would use the remaining bankroll to 1 table NL€2 in conjunction with restarting the W34z3l walkthrough series and trying to learn and develop my game .... I'm not ready for "responsible" at the moment though......)

      The strange thing is that I am also playing a little on Pokerstars (NL5 Zoom) and finding it reasonably comfortable ... I've gone from basically nothing (using some loyalty points) to over £130, and climbing reasonably consistently ... not related to this though - I keep my bankrolls separate. So why do I persevere with iPoker? I've come to Pokerstrategy to try and develop and improve - iPoker is where I get the PS points to get access to the training material - that's where I see my long term improvements coming from .....
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      I'm still in "Meltdown" mode (which doesn't mean the specific day was a meltdown...)


      Actually not a bad day, in the circumstances! Most important point of the day was possibly the dawning of a "realisation", but more of that further down the post! Volume was appalling on Netbet, but that's acceptable to me in the circumstances!

      So Netbet results: I didn't play any cash games. I played 8 Twister, winning 5 for €2 (though the figure that interests me more, the ICM adjusted results showed, basically, break even - that's ok, at the moment, Break Even is good!).

      BUT, the "realisation" - I think that the "$ICD Diff" in HM2 is wrong/inaccurate. I think (assume) it always calculates with a €2.79 (€0.93 x 3) prize pool, rather than the actual prize pool. I haven't got my head around the implication of that yet, but given I appear to be running "massively unluckily", then the assumption is that it overestimates the luck impact (and instead of being unlucky, I've been bad!).

      Why do I think HM2 is wrong? Simply because the first twister result made no sense to me. I can (and maybe will) try and work it out properly myself for comparison - but for the moment, its simply guesswork....

      So what happened in that first game? I went all in first hand (chasing my pokerstrategy mission!), and was called by one opponent. I had 74.7% equity and my hand held up. Second hand, playing on the image I hoped I'd portrayed from the first hand, I went all in again, and got a call from the sole remaining opponent. I had 68.1% equity and won the hand and the tournament :) A profit of €1.01 was made (I don't know where the €0.01 comes from!) However HM2 said that my "$ICM Diff" was -€1.06, implying that I should have made a loss on the tournament of €0.05. Ok, I know that I was lucky to win both hands (It will only happen 50.8% of the time), but I cannot believe it had negative ICM expectation! Only theory I can come up with is that HM2 was working off an assumption of a net profit of €1.79 (€2.79 winnings minus €1 entry) and the adjusted ICM expectation would have been a €0.73 profit (€1.79 net winnings minus €1.06 "$ICM Diff").

      Poker I played on other sites yesterday (not relevant to this challenge, other than to try and illustrate a little my overall mindset):

      Pokerstars, NL5 ZOOM (Chasing entries to the $250,000 KK freeroll tournament): $4.26 profit from 701 hands (this week $23.88 from 1,563 hands)
      Prima, NL2 Anonymous (Playing for 1 raked hand a day Summer Gadget Giveaway): $0.59 profit from 32 hands (this week $3.66 from 241 hands)

      Why am I finding iPoker so much harder than the other sites?
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      Realisation 2 - Just typing it out made me think ... maybe HM2 is right - after all the reality of the twister games is that I have to triple my chip count in order to less than double my buy in .... within the €2 prize games, you will need a hell of an edge over your opponents in order to make a profit.....

      I hope that is right, because I want to confirm my "bad luck" as opposed to "bad play"!! It means that I can largely just keep doing the same things, the right things and results will sort themselves out (the alternative is that I'm so far from doing the right things, I might as well give up now!)
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      I have decided that I will stay in "Meltdown mode" (No specific goals, no set discipline - just do what I want and see what happens) until either I am bust or my bankroll is back to £20.

      Meltdown Day 3

      Ok, what do you want first the good news, or the bad news? Well it doesn't matter what you want, because I'm giving you the good news first!

      The good news is that my bankroll has increased slightly. Its now £15.73. Yesterday I played 13x€1 Twister, winning 6 (4x€2 and 2x€4) for a net profit of €3.

      The bad news is that, assuming I believe the HM2 figures (and I think on balance, at the moment I probably do), then my "good news" was just luck and not skill! My ICM adjustment was -€6.61 meaning that my €3 could instead have been a €3.61 loss. And as I keep reporting, I view that as more important than my actual profit/loss.

      I'm still chasing the 4th Pokerstrategy mission - which is why I'm persevering with the Twister games - but don't have any real belief that I can achieve it - Its just not looking likely that I can win a tournament in the first hand! I'm just hoping that it might happen out of the blue .... Maybe I'll get dealt AA, the shark on the table can have KK and the fish of the table will get 93s .......
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      Meltdown Day 4

      Incredible ...... Meltdown is officially over (balance back over £20).....In fact I've totally blown the £20 out of the water and my balance stands at a relatively healthy £25.84.

      Non-Meltdown Day 1

      Yesterday I played 50x€1 Twisters, for a profit of €14.14. And to top it all, my ICM difference stat was only -€2.03, so the profit wasn't even accounted for by ICM luck! Of course lady luck can present herself in many different guises, and she arrived yesterday in the number of €6 games I got to play (1 won 5x€6 games and lost at least a couple).

      Its tough to work out, through the variance , whether it is worthwhile or not for me to play Twister poker ... I found an interesting post elsewhere that spoke of the "Mathematics of Twister Poker". This suggested that the standard deviation of twister poker is 4.6 buyins per game. In comparison, hyper turbo heads up SNGs (the nearest comparison to Twisters) have a standard deviation of just 1 buyin per game. So there's a lot of variance to be expected! The article went on to suggest that to work out where you are in the pecking order, you should ignore your profit/loss and simply look at the percentage of games you win. It suggests that if "you're winning more than 35.8% of your games, you should be at least breakeven. More than 37.6%, you should have over 5% edge in the games. More than 39.4% and you should have more than 10% edge in the games." So I checked out my win rate .... and was thrilled to discover, so far (ridiculously small sample accepted) it is a very encouraging 50 wins from 125 games (exactly 40%).

      So now I'm out of "meltdown" mode and back to a more regular situation, I need to set out my goals for the week (perfect that its a Monday!). I'll be back a little later on to do that.....

      But my results for the previous week(s) for the reporting thread:

      Opening Bankroll: £27.41 (€38.33, $41.78)

      Week 1 Bankroll: £12.90 (€17.58/$19.70)
      Week 2 Bankroll: £19.18 (€26.49,$29.75)
      Week 3 Bankroll: £25.84 (€36.07/($41.09)

      Weekly Profit/Loss: £6.66 (€9.29/$10.59)
      Overall Profit/Loss: -£1.57 (-€2.19/-$2.50)

      Weekly Cash Hands Played: 1,227 hands
      Weekly Twister Games Played: 125 x €1 (2,287 hands)
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      So, I've been putting off returning because I really don't know what goals to set for the week - whether to continue the Twister games, or return to the NL2 games ... and the decision just became harder, because I now have a "free choice" having completed the last lucky mission in the pokerstrategy "Would you rather be lucky than good?" promo/comp.

      Reasons I want to play Twister:
      - They're more dynamic and more exciting
      - I feel I do better HU and 3 handed than I do 6 handed
      - I get the impression that they churn through rake quicker (I think ... and yes its crazy putting "more rake" as a positive - but this is on a pokerstrategy tracked account, and I'm struggling to get the strategypoints for the month to maintain gold - which I need to finish W34z3ls series....)
      - They're the games that gave a great daily upswing to get out of trouble (as well as the games that gave me a terrible daily downswing to put me firmly into trouble!)

      Reasons I want to return to NL2
      - Its the more sensible choice for my poker education - I need to be playing these games if I am to continue W34z3ls excellent walkthrough series
      - The swings seem substantially less and I seem to be able to make a more solid profit in these games (It was NL5 where I lost heavily initially and NL2 where I recovered it)

      More reasons for Twisters, but I'm tending towards NL2 - cos I'm far too conservative a kind of a bod!

      I think the clincher will be some quick calculations on what I need to do to keep Gold on Pokerstrategy ... so here goes.....

      310.4 ponts so far this month.
      31 points expected for yesterday (21 points for 50x€1 Twister plus the 10 bonus points)
      18.4 points so far today (8.4 points for 20x€1 Twister plus the 10 bonus points)
      I'll assume no more points today (conservatism again!) - that puts me on 359.8 towards the 500 needed with 8 days to go.
      I'll assume 8x10 bonus points for the rest of the month which leaves me needing to earn about 60 points, or 7.5 points per day on the tables. Ah not as tight as I feared.....

      7.5 points is about 18x€1 Twister.
      If my maths is right, then 7.5 points per day is about 620 hands per day. That comes in at about 2 hours 17 minutes if I'm 3 tabling ....

      Hmm .... definitely more straightforward with Twisters, but probably just about achievable with NL2.

      I think I'll sleep on it and then tomorrow decide that I'll return to NL2 and my studies :p
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      Ok, its time to commit!
      One change though - I'm no longer going to update daily any more (I don't think anyone was reading my witterings anyway) - instead I will just make one update each Monday.

      Here are my goals for the upcoming week:

      Goal 1 - Volume - I aim to keep on target to retain my Gold status on Pokerstrategy. I shall do this at the NL2 cash tables (from this point forward, I shall no longer play any Twisters, except if I am in meltdown mode - more of which is below). What does on target mean? It means pro rata strategy points totals to get there on 28th June (giving me 2 days buffer for unforseen circumstances....). 500 strategy points per month divided by 28 days means that I need a pace of 17.86 strategy points per day. My reported total yesterday was 359.8 points after 22 days - that's a pace of 16.3 strategy points per day - I need to pick it up a bit!! Although I'm not updating in here daily, I will track it live myself to ensure I hit the right volumes!

      Goal 2 - Profit/Bankroll - My goal for this week is to get back into positive territory - so my goal is simply to get my bankroll above my opening bankroll of £27.41. (Had a bad day yesterday ... on the Twisters .... so have already made that tougher for myself!)

      Goal 3 - Study - I intend to restudy the first 3 videos from W34z3ls walkthrough series and add the 4th video to my repertoire.

      Goal 4 - Weight - I want to finish the week at (or a smidgeon below) my target weight of 75kg. (I've been creeping up a little the last few days - so that's not an easy goal!)

      Goal 5 - Body Fat % - My aim is to finish the week below 20%. A new recoprd low reading would be nice, but is probably unrealistic.

      Goal 6 - Exercise - All change here! I'm going to fight my weakness. Cardio is little problem for me, and I feel able to push myself quite well. On the flip side, I am not strong (and never have been) and struggle with any strength training. SO I do loads of cardio and ignore strength training. If I want to move forwards though, I figure I need to add some strength training to my weekly routine. TO put into context where I'm at, I can barely do one press up. I don't have any equipment, or access to a gym, so it will be purely body weight exercise (which is plenty for me). I'm going to try this routine - - 3 times this week, on alternate days with 1 hour "time trials" on the exercise bike.

      Goal 7 - Blog Updates - Just one update a week from now on, every Monday.

      Meltdown Mode - If my balance falls below £15 at all, then I will switch into "all or nothing" meltdown mode - which probably means playing the twisters. I will not exit meltdown mode until such time as my balance is back above £20 (or down to £0!!).
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      Originally posted by 8runo
      A little ahead of myself given where I am now, but I also set BRM limits, and this gives me a clear goal for where I need to be to move away from the NL€2 tables to the Fast NL€5 tables. Specifically I need to get to £36.68 to move back up. £22.68 to go! I appreciate that the BRM levels I've defined are uber aggressive, but as stated before, I view the amounts involved as relatively low and the damage of busting completely as not having serious consequences. My bankroll is easily replaceable if necessary.
      My balance has surged to £38.50, on the back of some success at NL2 - which takes me to my trigger point to move up to Fast NL5. I'm not sure I have the "courage" (or rather "belief") because I was pulverised last time I was there ...... do I move up or don't I? That's my quandary!

      Here are my month to date results - split out by NL2 and Fast NL5 .... I wasn't going to put my basic stats in there, but I will, because it maybe shows some evolution in my game (NL5 was first, NL2 was after studying a little on Pokerstrategy) ... maybe now I have the tools to do a little better..... (incidentally, unrelated to what I report in this blog, but also this month I have played 4,374 hands on Pokerstars at Zoom NL5 at a profitability rate of 15.41 EV bb/100 - but as I've said before - Pokerstars strikes me as substantially easier than iPoker) ... I think I'm talking myself into giving Fast NL5 a go again....

    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      Week 4 Results

      Overall, by far my best week yet. I'm still making a LOT of mistakes, and still leaving a LOT of money on the tables ... which is really encouraging as I know there's a lot of improvement to come......

      Goal 1 - Volume - Once I committed to moving up to NL5, then the volume target was a doddle. I have hit my target, and maintained my Gold status on Pokerstrategy. I understand that I am sacrificing some rakeback to get the volume in on a Pokerstrategy tracked operator, however, for the moment, I view the potential rewards from access to the Pokerstrategy resources as greater than the rewards from increased rakeback.

      Goal 2 - Profitability - My balance at the end of the week is up to £51.20. Absolutely smashed the goal of getting back to my opening bankroll of £27.41 and am now firmly in the black! Having said that, a lot of that bankroll balance increase is from "running good", as you'll be able to see from the weekly graph below. Still got a lot of work to do before NL5 becomes more profitable for me then NL2!

      Goal 3 - Study - An exceedingly bad week. I didn't get close to doing what I wanted to do and MUST do better! I recapped video 1 from W34z4ls walkthrough series, but that was it. A poor effort!

      Goal 4 - Weight - I missed my target of finishing the week at 75KG, but I am happy overall. I did get closer and finished at 75.3KG. As long as no upward trend is being set, and I'm there or there abouts, then I'm not concerned. I feel I'm eating well at the moment and my nutrition is pretty good.

      Goal 5 - Body Fat% - Treading water a little at the moment - finished the week at 15.5KG body fat (20.6%). Mainly, I think the lack of progress is from the lack of effort in goal 6!

      Goal 6 - Exercise - Started off well with good intentions, but didn't push through the week with those intentions! The most important aspect for the moment was that video. I attempted it once, and managed half of it (and couldn't complete all of the reps for the half that I did do) - BUT for days afterwards was sore and aching. How can 10 minutes "effort" make me ache so much? This is a positive as well because maybe it means that I am pushing myself with that more than I appreciate. I need to persevere with it - build myself up and hopefully be able to do more of the reps and more time as time goes by.... On the Exercise bike side - I completed 2 and a bit time trials - the first 2 time trials were satisfactory, but I was disappointed that I didn't complete the third (maybe because of the "fatigue" from my 10 minutes "effort" a few days before?!!!). Overall I've done very little the last 4 days!

      Goal 7 - Blog Updates - Weekly update delivered :)
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      Week 5 Goals

      Goal 1 - Volume I'm aiming for a thousand hands a day of Fast NL5 this week - so 7,000 hands in total.

      Goal 2 - Profitability I hope to win back my losses at NL5, so it will be a good week if I can make €22.98. (Which over the target volume is €0.33/100 or 6.6bb/100

      Goal 3 - Study Must do better than last week! Keeping the same goal - so recap videos 2-3 and complete video 4 of w34z3ls walkthrough!

      Goal 4 - Weight Looking to keep the nutrition and exercise good which will hopefully result in finishing the week at 75KG.

      Goal 5 - Body Fat(%) Looking to finish the week below 20%.

      Goal 6 - Exercise As a minimum, I'm expecting to complete 3x1 hour time trials (Mon, Wed, Fri) and 2x10 minute fitbit training videos (Tue, Thu). If I achieve this, its a very good step up from last week!

      Goal 7 - Blog Update Just one update required again - next Monday. Will probably update on Wednesday as well from a month end review perspective
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      June Recap

      Overall I'm pretty satisfied with what I managed in June - especially the recovery after a poor start. I feel substantially better equipped to succeed at the tables now than what I did a month ago. I am cautiously optimistic for July.

      Overall Cash Games


      €5NL Fast

      €1 Twister
    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      Visible signs of progress

      I think this hand is a sign of the progress I've made over the last month - I don't think I would ever have put it down a month ago.

      Please Please don't tell me that I was wrong to fold it (well, not unless you really believe it ;) )

      I don't have large hand histories on anyone, but have to try and form views on the basis of what I do have.... (without any history at all on anyone I presume its a straightforward fold)
      MP looks loose passive (35/0) [20 hands]
      CO looks a solid ish reg ish type player (22/18 3bet 6%) [484 hands]
      BTN looks a bit of a maniac (43/29 3bet 25%) [14 hands]

      If the CO hadn't been in the hand, I'd probably have had a tougher choice?

      IPoker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (SB): $5.47 (109.4 bb)
      BB: $6.30 (126 bb)
      UTG: $4.89 (97.8 bb)
      MP: $2.81 (56.2 bb)
      CO: $5.20 (104 bb)
      BTN: $4.87 (97.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with J J
      UTG folds, MP calls $0.05, CO raises to $0.22, BTN raises to $0.75, 4 folds

      Results: $0.56 pot
      BTN mucked and won $0.56 ($0.34 net)

    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653

      I've invested in a copy of leakbuster - I figure it will help me know where to concentrate my focus.

      I've run a combined analysis on NL€2 and Fast NL€5 for the improved sample size (still pretty small: 16k hands) since 1st June 2015.

      Its a surprisingly positive result, and has also given me a clear area to focus on (aggression). I'd made a conscious effort to reign back my aggression - I've been trying to play more ABC - bet hard when I have hands and let it go when I don't - I wanted to make my money from my opponents errors, which should be frequent enough at the micros.... however I'll give the leakbuster advice a go and try and improve that aggression - I've recently added 3 stats to my HUD showing how often my opponent folds (in any situation) to a bet on the Flop, Turn and River - I think I need to utilise that more to play my opponents .... Leakbuster also talking about double barrelling more - need to sort out some kind of "fold to double barrel" stat in my HUD.

      Anyway - this is the Leakbuster report card:

      Critical Leaks - 1


      Very Important Leaks - 0
      Important Leaks - 3

        River Call Efficiency
        Big Blind, AKo-ATo / AQs-AKs - Open Raised EP
        4-Bet less than AQ+/TT+

      Somewhat Important Leaks - 9

        Aggression - Big Blind
        Check/Calling with Draws on the turn
        River Aggression % - Early
        3-bet high sc's from blinds vs Cold Called high SC's from blinds
        Squeeze %
        River Call Efficiency - middle
        32o-T9o/32s-T9s - Cold Call - MP
        1 - Top Pair
        50 - Lines - Check Call 3 streets

      For the moment I will ignore most of that - I will just focus on the single critical leak. My first goal is to eliminate it and get to the stage where I have no Critical and no Very Important leaks.

    • 8runo
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 653
      In Summary
      - Another excellent week on the tables
      - Another poor week off the tables (Specifically Poker study and exercise)!!! Purely comes down to willpower and determination .... and at the moment I'm lacking....

      Week 5 Results

      Goal 1 - Volume - Hitting my volume goals seems easy when things appear to be going well (as they are at the moment) ... as soon as things get a bit tougher though, I struggle.... I aimed for 7,000 hands in the week, and quite comfortably managed 8,295.

      Goal 2 - Profitability - Another great week. My balance at the end of the week is up to £74.68.

      Goal 3 - Study - Another poor week. I need to get my motivation back, and I need to get studying again!! I value highly the benefit from the videos I watch on here (as evidenced by my already improved results), but when its going well, I'm much preferring to play than to study, and that isn't the way I should be doing it! I need to nurture the culture of "continuous improvement"!!

      Goal 4 - Weight - My latest weigh in was spot on my goal, at exactly 75KG. I feel my nutrition continues to be excellent and disciplined.

      Goal 5 - Body Fat(%) - I haven't been making any progress here, and don't deserve to be making any progress here, because of my failings in Goal 6! My latest measure was 20.5% body fat (15.4KG) and 36.2% Muscle (27.2KG). This isn't good (but not bad/unhealthy) - however if I want to improve (which I do), then I MUST put the work into it!

      Goal 6 - Exercise - Oh dear. The worst week I've had in ages! I did manage 2x10 minute body weight exercise sessions, which is an excellent step forward for me, however my cardio exercise was virtually non existent - I'm used to doing 5 or so x 1 hour sessions at reasonable intensity per week - over the last week I managed about 2x15 minute sessions. Not sure why I struggled so much (Maybe the heat if I'm looking for excuses? The days I attempted it were pretty warm days here in the UK) - but I just seem to be lacking any energy at all (My nutrition has been good I think)

      Goal 7 - Blog Update All done :)