Tournament variance

    • RightMove
      RightMove
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.02.2015 Posts: 5
      Hey guys,

      I have a few questions about variance that I'd like to clear up.

      I play 9man turbo STTs so I'll be asking specifficaly for this kind of tournaments.

      1. Firstly I want to ask how accurate really is Pokerdope tournament variance calc.?

      Since it doesn't have a built in ITM% option and also just assumes that the places distribution is equal for 1,2 and third place... For example:

      I put in 2000 5+0.5$ STTs with 5% ROI

      It gives me: Probability of loss: 6%
      70% confidence interval 2-8%roi=180-900$

      Now, how accurate is this-how big deviations I can expect? And is there maybe any better variance calc for tournaments?

      2. I've read THIS a cuple of times and I have a few questions that I hope you guys can help me out with..

      a) I know it's hard to determine accurate ROI so I'm wondering how can be ROI confidance interval calculated, maybe with some calc?

      Exmp: I have 8% ROI in 3500 STTs

      Acordinng to this guy:
      For example, a 3% eROI player only has about a 7% chance of winning as much as a 7% eROI player, so if you pull off a 7% eROI over 3k STTs, you can be fairly confident that your real eROI is at least 3% (and basically certain that you’re a winner). The 95% confidence interval still spans almost 11% (e.g. from -3% to 8% eROI), so you’re not going to get much useful information at that level of confidence. But, the 75% confidence interval spans about 6% (e.g. from 0% to to 6% eROI). That ain’t great, but it’s something.
      SO there's a good chance I have at lest 3% roi if I understand corectly?
      And with 95% confidance I have -3-8%? And with 75% confidance interval I have 0-6% ROI.

      Now I wanna know how did this guy get this numbers so I can calculate for myslef?

      b) If I have like 8% roi EV adjusted over 1k sample. Is EV adjsuted roi a lot more accurate when determining my true ROI-and how much?

      ----------------------------------------------------------------------

      And lastly do pros actually calculate all this for themselves before turning pro or they just know what to expect from previous years..

      Anyway any info about this would be much appreciated:)
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