98% on the flop 0% by the river...

  • 25 replies
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      2% = 1 in 50
      not 0 in 50.
    • xsarelo
      xsarelo
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2014 Posts: 8
      Correct. Yes.

      Oh wait... it must be me, it just happened again!! 98 v 2 guess who won!! 2 freaking outs runner runner, FFS.

    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      AJ one doesn't show HH, were you all in preflop? If so that's not 98/2
    • xsarelo
      xsarelo
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2014 Posts: 8
      No, it was not all in. I raised pre flop, he called me. It was indeed 98 v 2 on the flop, just like the first case above. It is happening to me badly. Just saying it is unreal to get 2 hands like these. 2 outers runner runner.
      Thanks for the comments.
    • SeagalSteven
      SeagalSteven
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 504
      Here I had 99,87% equity on the flop, but villain got there with runner-runner royal, his only change to win this hand :f_drink:

      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $22.90 (91.6 bb)
      Hero (BB): $43 (172 bb)
      UTG: $12.49 (50 bb)
      MP: $18.45 (73.8 bb)
      CO: $53.09 (212.4 bb)
      BTN: $56.85 (227.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 T A 5
      4 folds, SB raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.25

      Flop: ($1) T T 5 (2 players)
      SB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1

      Turn: ($4) Q (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB raises to $8.50, Hero calls $5.50

      River: ($21) J (2 players)
      SB bets $12.40 and is all-in, Hero calls $12.40

      Results: $45.80 pot ($1.95 rake)
      Final Board: T T 5 Q J
      SB showed 9 J A K and won $43.85 ($20.95 net)
      Hero showed 6 T A 5 and lost (-$22.90 net)
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,802
      Originally posted by xsarelo
      Just saying it is unreal to get 2 hands like these.
      It's not unreal at all. It just happened to you. It is very real. Reality is like this. Your model of reality in your head is wrong.
    • WhiteWalker
      WhiteWalker
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2015 Posts: 464
      Running like a muthaducka, it'll pickup
    • lietome15
      lietome15
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2011 Posts: 1
      I saw the same thing a bunch of times on PKR and sometimes on iPoker rooms like Titan and Betfair. It feels like you are playing bingo and you can't do anything about that random number generator. I don't recognize the poker room from these pictures so can you tell me where it happened ? ?(
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      Originally posted by redskwerl
      Originally posted by xsarelo
      Just saying it is unreal to get 2 hands like these.
      It's not unreal at all. It just happened to you. It is very real. Reality is like this. Your model of reality in your head is wrong.
      the motherfucking truth right here
    • wasy8
      wasy8
      Black
      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 1,507
      it always amazes me how poker players expect to be immune to the simplest forms of variance.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,904
      Originally posted by lietome15
      I don't recognize the poker room from these pictures so can you tell me where it happened ? ?(
      It happens to someone at least once a day.

      If you find it is upsetting you, take a break, and read a book such as "The Mental Game of Poker" by Jared Tendler.

      No, the book won't help you AVOID situations like this, but it will help you handle them, and more importantly, it will help prevent you making even worse mistakes like NOT getting it in when you have a 98:2 edge.

      Best of luck,
      VS
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,904
      Originally posted by wasy8
      it always amazes me how poker players expect to be immune to the simplest forms of variance.
      Hi, wasy8,
      I'm amazed you're amazed since (at least as far as I know) each and every poker player has felt like this at some point.

      Peace,
      VS
    • xsarelo
      xsarelo
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2014 Posts: 8
      Hi all, thanks for the comments.
      For those who have the ability to handle these situations, congratulations, I can't. I broke a wooden spoon out of anger. I mean, come on, hours reading, watching videos... you feel like a waste of time.
      I can understand a 70 v 30 like the ones constantly getting called my AK vs AJ.
      But this kind of badbeat, fuck it, and it happened two nights in a row.
      To the guy asking where this happened, it was 888. The screenshot comes from my tracking software.
      But the most badbeats I had them at Betfair (iPoker) left for good.
    • xsarelo
      xsarelo
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2014 Posts: 8
      Sadly... thing is... I'm not good enough, I just CAN'T win no matter what my cards are.
      You guys think this is gonna change or I'm cursed or what??
      I understand about variance, but come on, really?? Huge fav and still can't win.
      Still in profit, but I should be winning way more.
      Thougths??



    • rompas
      rompas
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.02.2014 Posts: 2,368
      Hi,

      my thought, this happens to everyone for example i just saw a hand from wsop, 2 guys allin preflop aa versus kk,,, flop a x x,, turn k river k,,,, thats kind of sick but do happens, when we play online all the time this happens more often since we play way much more hands then in live poker, and even after i played online poker for around 15 years now it sometimes really kills me to run bad but i try to focus on my play not the result,, meaning did i make some mistake?

      if you are still winning as you said i do think you are a good player so keep the good play and slowly and steady you will win more and more,, poker is not a sprint race where you will be rich fast, its a rollercoaster maraton with up and downs and not everyone can handle it mentaly, its up to you to show you can.

      gl at the tables and keep fighting
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,508
      How rigged it would be if that 2% equity wouldn't ever hit?
    • LemOn36
      LemOn36
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 1,351
      $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
      PokerStars5 Players
      UTG Hero ($26.30) 105bb
      CO Temnaes ($25) 100bb
      BTN AngulenDK ($32.82) 131bb
      SB appleapple95 ($26.12) 104bb
      BB maxgt008 ($32.20) 129bb
      Pre-Flop: (0.35, 5 players) Hero is UTG J:club: 3:heart:

      Hero folds, Temnaes raises to $0.75, AngulenDK raises to $2.25, 2 folds, Temnaes raises to $5, AngulenDK calls $2.75

      Flop: K:heart: 10:heart: Q:spade: ($10.35, 2 players)
      Temnaes goes all-in $20, AngulenDK calls $20
      Turn: Q:heart: ($50.35, 2), 1 all-in

      River: J:heart: ($50.35, 2), 1 all-in
      Final Pot: $50.35
      Temnaes shows four of a kind, Queens
      Q:club: Q:diamond:
      AngulenDK shows a Royal Flush
      A:heart: 4:heart:
      AngulenDK wins $48.35 (net +$23.35)
      Temnaes lost $25
    • xsarelo
      xsarelo
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2014 Posts: 8
      Hi rompas Kyyberi and the rest,

      Thanks for the feedback!!
      Yes, Kyyberi, you are right, but it so painful when it happens against you. I'm yet to win a 2% vs 98%.

      Rompas, I agree on the part about concentrating on my play and avoid making mistakes. It is really hard when you get these badbeats, specially if you use your time to study the game and improve.

      Thanks for the comments about the sprint and marathon race, I think you are spot on.

      Yes, I think I'm playing well, I understand it is only micro stakes, but hey, I don't want to put serious money at risk. I used to play MTT but quit, couldn't show a profit.
      Now I play only SNG. According to my graph, apparently i'm doing well, it is only 123 SNG so far, but looking good (specially when I think of the times I get beaten by ridiculous draws).
      75% ITM
      26% ROI
      I plan to take it to 1000 SNG and see how I'm doing, that would be a much accurate example.

      As usual, any comments from more experienced players are very welcome!!

    • Styr
      Styr
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2009 Posts: 408
      I once busted some poor guy who had quad aces with a straight flush. :)
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