You cannot solve this hand...

    • Happa2
      Happa2
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.08.2010 Posts: 3,638
      Hi I am a SNG satellite player mainly because I like the simplicity that come with them and also because I didn't have any trouble solving an SNG hand.

      However, this hand and generally every hand that deals with Future Game Simulation in one way or another is giving me a headache because I don't know what's right or wrong.

      Let me give you an example:

      Blind Level:
      50/100 Blinds 20 Ante

      Stack Sizes:
      Button Chips: 1550
      Small Blind Chips: 605
      Big Blinds Chips: 845

      Payout Structure:
      1st: 50%
      2nd: 50%

      The top 2 players win an equal amount of money.

      Reads:
      SB and BB are just solid regs that are probably capable of making tough laydowns on the bubble (which we are at).
      They may stick closer to ICM nash callingranges than FGS callingranges.
      Maybe that is a way how to exploit them?

      The Question:
      The question to the Spot is as follow: What Range can the BU push profitably?


      According to a rough ICM nash calculation by the holdemressources web calculator BU can push 19,1% (JJ+,Ax+,KTs+,KJo+) profitably.

      However since we deal with really small stacks in the situation I thought an ICM nash calculation isn't the way to go because of the limitedness of the model and also experience tells me that this hand will have a great effect on future hands.

      So that's why I tried a Future Game Simulation.

      The Results of the Future Game Simulation:

      Depth 4: BU Push 2,9% (KK+,AKs,A5s-A4s,AKo)
      Depth 5: BU Push 17% (88+,A2s+,A8o+,A5o-A4o,K9s+,KQo,QTs+)
      Depth 6: BU Push 6,5% (JJ+,ATs+,A5s-A3s,AQo+,KQs
      Depth 7: BU Push 0,5% (AA)

      In a different thread I got the advice that I should take the last 3 results that have a bearable calculation time and calculate the average.
      This would lead to an 8% Range which I would personally create like this:
      TT+,ATs+,A5s-A4s,ATo+,KQs

      TT-QQ, KQs are not that clear of a shove because Ax suited perform slightly better when the callingrange is 0,5% (AA) because of blockereffects I guess. However when we deal with looser callingranges TT-QQ gain a lot of value so that's why I picked them over hands like A5o or A9s.

      It is clear that the above "result" can only really be taken as an estimation and not really as a solution.
      How would you go about solving this spot?
      An approximation of a solution would also really help me.

      Also keep in mind that the FGS is also a limited model that doesn't take everything into account (player tendencies, Blind level increases).

      :f_thumbsup:
  • 3 replies
    • NothingIsForSho
      NothingIsForSho
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2014 Posts: 382
      what about the sb range? arent sb and bb supposed to try to kill each other ?
    • Happa2
      Happa2
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.08.2010 Posts: 3,638
      Originally posted by NothingIsForSho
      what about the sb range? arent sb and bb supposed to try to kill each other ?
      If I fold SB is probably pushing around 70% and BB calling about 50%. So yes they will try to kill each other. Thats why being tight on the button makes a lot of sense actually. That's why I came up with this 8% range too.
    • NothingIsForSho
      NothingIsForSho
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2014 Posts: 382
      ya it looks like you have it pretty much worked out yourself. shouldn't be anything wrong with icm or that other model. never even heard of fgs. if it were me id just be super tight and only shove the super nuts.