NL100 Flopped straight facing shove on river scarecard

    • PickoCro
      PickoCro
      Platinum
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 83
      PokerStars - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 181.99 BB (VPIP: 23.19, PFR: 18.55, 3Bet Preflop: 7.32, Hands: 1,062)
      SB: 105.5 BB (VPIP: 32.43, PFR: 27.03, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
      BB: 135.45 BB (VPIP: 22.08, PFR: 17.46, 3Bet Preflop: 7.61, Hands: 2,038)
      UTG: 208.59 BB (VPIP: 22.64, PFR: 17.63, 3Bet Preflop: 7.27, Hands: 897)
      Hero (MP): 139.19 BB
      CO: 204.27 BB (VPIP: 24.65, PFR: 19.92, 3Bet Preflop: 11.58, Hands: 521)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:club: A:spade:

      fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, CO raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 5.5 BB

      Flop: (17.5 BB, 2 players) K:diamond: J:club: T:heart:
      Hero checks, CO checks

      Turn: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 6:heart:
      Hero bets 10.5 BB, CO calls 10.5 BB

      River: (38.5 BB, 2 players) 3:heart:
      Hero bets 23.5 BB, CO raises to 185.77 BB and is all-in

      There is not much to say about preflop and flop.

      Turn i think i should have gone for a bigger sizing, because he has a lot of hands that pot control flop and call turn + maybe river.

      So what do you do otr? I don t have that many reads on the guy, so it s pretty though for me to tell what I should do. On the one hand i think it s a pretty easy spot for him to bluff with AA, AK and AJ with the ace of hearts (also my small sizing otr may entice him to bluff with those kind of hands), but on the other hand he may be one of those guys that just wouldn t bluff in that spot.
      Readless i think it should be a fold, but i m getting almost 2:1 so i only need to be good around 30% of the time.

      Any thoughts?

      Edit: Posted in wrong forum section, so please delete.
  • 1 reply
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,086
      EDIT: If this thread is moved, I wont be able to read any reply (bronze).

      Readless you should play GTO at NL100. Getting 2:1 it should be 2:1 against that he is bluffing.

      Important: It is NOT the pot odds you should go by, it is his investment in a bluff. Since this is a raise, your calling frequency should be smaller than the pot odds tell you for an ordinary call of a possible bluff bet as opposed to a bluff raise.

      You should fold about your bottom 66% of bluff catchers (because he is investing 100 (approx your remaining stack) + 23.5 (your bet) to win 62 in the middle and needs to succeed 66% of the time to BE). Just count how many flushes you have in your range. You have 15 nut straights. If you have 7.5+ non-nut flushes, it is a fold. If you have less than 7.5 flushes, then you should sometimes call with the nut straight, and sometimes not.

      I think I got this right, but I'm tired and might miss something.