How likely is a straight in this situation?

    • hardlife66
      Joined: 07.10.2014 Posts: 136
      Hi all,
      I'm into the third session of the tounament blinds are $40/$80, I have JJ I'm UTG2 villian is UTG1 villian min rasies I call all others fold, flop is JT8o villian bets $160 I call, turn is 7 villian calls I go all in villian goes all in river is Q I lose to a straight villian has K9o
      Did I misread the false call on the turn?, is K9 a stronger hand than a high pair?, should I have folded my hand after the flop?
  • 4 replies
    • indigotiger
      Joined: 04.08.2011 Posts: 14
      Firstly, I reckon the call to the min raise wasn't the best move pre flop. What if other people called? Then your premium hand would've been less so. If you had raised pre flop, then you'd be the aggressor (in position too) and villain might've played differently.
      According to poker strategy, a raise should be 4x BB + 1BB for every caller, so (in theory) the best move to have made in this position pre flop is a raise to 5BB.

      On the flop an OESD has (I think) around a 16% chance of hitting, or around 5:1. So it's actually pretty unlikely that he'd hit a Q or a 7. To scare him off the draw, it might've been a good idea to bet BIG or even shove on the flop. If he's a halfway decent player, he'd probably give up the OESD...

      On the turn, it may have been best to just check instead of going all in, but hey ho.

      Anyways, it did seem that you got a bit unlucky. But maybe if you'd been a bit more aggressive, it would've scared villain off.

      Just my two cents :f_biggrin:
    • slippyjim
      Joined: 07.10.2011 Posts: 1,011
      I think you misread what OP said
      "I'm UTG2 villian is UTG1 villian min rasies I call"
      so as I understand it UTG1 2X's and hero calls, pre flop seems standard to me
      A raise on the flop is possible but how many 9's do you expect villian to have? A9 & 99 maybe if hes loose, I think a raise is only going to get his bluffs and worse hands to fold e.g. Jx, Tx and underpairs

      IMO more info is needed
      How loose/tight is villian playing? If he is loose you could 3bet pre and hope he reraises then you can shove
      Whats your image loose/tight?
      How many BB's did you shove on the turn?
      How many BB's did you and villian have?
    • DastardlyBox
      Joined: 02.08.2015 Posts: 1
      i dont know
    • nsavov
      Joined: 24.09.2010 Posts: 696
      Originally posted by DastardlyBox
      i dont know
      Thanks for letting us know. :f_thumbsup:

      As for the hand... You could have played it alot better. If you are shallow stack you have easy 3bet/stackoff with JJ preflop. If deep, calling is OK.
      On that flop you have to raise and play for stacks! Imagine this:
      Villain has AA,KK,QQ or hands with a pair+draw like T9 and bets and when you raise the flop he's likely to go all in and you stack him (well, if he doesnt get lucky ofc).
      Now, if you call and the turn is a 9, QQ beat you and AA,KK and all 2pair combos would be scared to commit alot of chips. Same goes with a 7.
      Now, when you call and the turn is a 7 you are either beat but have outs to a boat, or you are still ahead and your opponent either bluffs or overplays something. No point in raising, he's folding all his bluffs and maybe all worst hands and continue only with hands that are ahead of you.
      If you call and dont improve on the river you can find a fold when your opponent bets strong.

      When you are in this position on the turn, asking yourself "how likely it is that my opponent has a straight" is a mistake. Instead you should ask yourself "what part of my opponent's range beats me and how often does he bluff or bet worse here". Also, with strong hands, you dont bet to scare off people away from their draws. You bet, so they have worse odds to play and if they do, they make mistakes. :f_wink:

      Easy game.