The odds of making 'Four of a kind' in Hold'Em?

    • clicks
      clicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.08.2008 Posts: 61
      I've only been playing for a some months, and I haven't seen that many. I just started playing Limit at Party Poker yesterday after studying the Fixed Limit Basic/Bronze articles. I've been playing 0.05/0.10. I've played about 3 hours in total and I saw 2 Four of kinds yesterday (in 2 hours) and 4 today (in 1 hour, 2 of them happened literally in the space of 5 hands and within my first 5 hands).

      I'm not quite sure what I'm asking here... Is this normal?


      Edit: Omg, I'm soo stupid. I'm playing low stakes FL! This game is totally new to me and it's quite obvious villans play pocket pairs all the way to the river! I'm used to them folding when I fire aggressive bets in NL :D Just shows how paranoid I am :rolleyes: Oh well, sorry for making a useless thread and not listening to anyone, although no one actually explained it like this to me. I'm pretty sure this is why I'm seeing so many.
  • 20 replies
    • lennert9
      lennert9
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.10.2008 Posts: 278
      good old variance, although 4 in 5 hands is a bit outrageous.

      I don't really know the odds but I believe it's something like 1 in every 3000 hands?
    • Backcushion
      Backcushion
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2007 Posts: 816
      Originally posted by clicks
      I've only been playing for a some months, and I haven't seen that many. I just started playing Limit at Party Poker yesterday after studying the Fixed Limit Basic/Bronze articles. I've been playing 0.05/0.10. I've played about 3 hours in total and I saw 2 Four of kinds yesterday (in 2 hours) and 4 today (in 1 hour, 2 of them happened literally in the space of 5 hands and within my first 5 hands).

      I'm not quite sure what I'm asking here... Is this normal?
      Anything can happens in poker,I for example got 4 four of a kinds one day and 2 of them in 30mins.
    • zhorzh
      zhorzh
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2007 Posts: 65
      If you play every pocket pair to showdown, the chances increase dramatically :D
    • Dragar
      Dragar
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2008 Posts: 2,214
      $0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
      5 players
      Converted at weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG Hero ($10.35)
      CO JotAhWeh ($25.35)
      BTN pool4u ($19.80)
      SB Blackbird90 ($29.55)
      BB allstarp ($43.40)

      Pre-flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is UTG J:spade: J:heart:
      Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, allstarp raises to $0.95, Hero calls $0.65

      Flop: J:diamond: J:club: 4:heart: ($1.95, 2 players)
      allstarp bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20

      Turn: 3:club: ($4.35, 2 players)
      allstarp checks, Hero bets $1, allstarp calls $1

      River: 5:diamond: ($6.35, 2 players)
      allstarp checks, Hero bets $3, allstarp calls $3

      Final Pot: $12.35
      allstarp shows: 9:diamond: 9:club:
      Hero shows: J:spade: J:heart:

      Hero wins $11.35 ( won +$5.20 )
      allstarp lost -$6.15


      :)
    • clicks
      clicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.08.2008 Posts: 61
      No big deal then, I hope I don't see another Four of kind for another 18000 hands unless it is me holding it. If I do see anymore in the next few hours of play I should be right to be suspicious, no?

      4 of them were made with pocket pairs, except this one against my Full House, I suppose it's inevitable when 9 people go to the flop, lol:

      0.05/0.1 Limit Holdem
      9 players
      Converted at weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG pitsteelerr ($1.00)
      UTG+1 Nicoz999 ($2.98)
      MP1 Flowsbh ($2.14)
      MP2 Hero ($2.50)
      MP3 zow1974 ($3.51)
      CO nikitared ($4.16)
      BTN Petrovih999 ($4.44)
      SB rowdyscenes ($0.68)
      BB dsv779 ($2.50)
      [pitsteelerr posted 0.05]
      [Flowsbh posted 0.05]
      [Hero posted 0.05]

      Pre-flop: (4.4 SB, 9 players) Hero is MP2 6:club: 6:spade:
      pitsteelerr checks, Nicoz999 calls, Flowsbh checks, Hero checks, zow1974 calls, nikitared calls, Petrovih999 calls, rowdyscenes calls, dsv779 checks

      Flop: 3:club: 3:diamond: 5:club: (9.0 SB, 9 players)
      rowdyscenes bets, 3 folds, Flowsbh calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, nikitared calls, 1 fold

      Turn: 6:heart: (6.5 BB, 4 players)
      rowdyscenes bets, Flowsbh calls, Hero raises, nikitared calls, rowdyscenes calls, Flowsbh folds

      River: 3:spade: (13.5 BB, 3 players)
      rowdyscenes bets, Hero raises, nikitared calls, rowdyscenes 3-bets, Hero 4-bets, nikitared folds, rowdyscenes 5-bets

      Final Pot: 23.3 BB
      rowdyscenes shows: 3:heart: 9:spade:
      Hero shows: 6:club: 6:spade:

      rowdyscenes wins 20.8 BB ( won +14.0 BB )
      Hero wins 0.2 BB ( lost --6.8 BB )
    • clicks
      clicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.08.2008 Posts: 61
      Guess what? Yet another Four of a kind! I have only played an additional 1 hour since my last post. Is this room for real? I'm recording my next session.
    • Solomaextra
      Solomaextra
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 7,401
      When you play a lot and have huge hand database then there are plenty of 4oak hands :-)
    • clicks
      clicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.08.2008 Posts: 61
      I can understand it with a huge hand database, but I've only played for 4 hours there. They shouldn't be happening every 90 hands.
    • Abe1919
      Abe1919
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 187
      four of a kind is nothing when you're holding 5aces!!
      http://wtfpokerstars.ytmnd.com/
    • clicks
      clicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.08.2008 Posts: 61
      .
    • Ellfish
      Ellfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.01.2008 Posts: 23
      Yesterday I was playing a tournament and called an all in with my QQ, he had pushed with 66 and I was feeling good. Then the flop came 66x. Couldn't believe it. Not the first time I've had quads flopped against me either.
    • clicks
      clicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.08.2008 Posts: 61
      On Party Poker?

      Seeing 66 allin would be standard to me (I'd never be the one allin with it tho), the 66 on the flop would come as a shock, but what if you saw the same thing 7 times in the next 4 hours of play? Call me paranoid, but 7 FOAKs in only 4 hours of play is a bit suspicious, and the guy who called allin with 105o in the SNG I played tops it off. In the 4 hours of Limit I've player there have always been short stacks who buy-in for like $0.86 who sit there there for ages not playing a hand and then they stumble upon 93o and decide to play, making a miraculous hand, and they all seem to be from Russia, do they know something I don't, lol? No, I'm serious here, something seems wrong.
    • mikeymac12
      mikeymac12
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.11.2008 Posts: 10
      Im not guaranteeing this number, but I believe the odds of getting four of a kind if you flip over 7 cards from a deck is 0.17%.

      Odds of getting quads if you hold something like AQ is 0.1%.
      Odds of getting quads if you hold pocket pairs is 1.1%
    • Ellfish
      Ellfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.01.2008 Posts: 23
      Originally posted by clicks
      On Party Poker?
      Nah it was on Titan, $5 10 man SnG.
    • vladutzuxxx
      vladutzuxxx
      Basic
      Joined: 06.12.2008 Posts: 3
      WTF
    • Maniatrix
      Maniatrix
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.11.2008 Posts: 674
      Quads happen all the time... Saw one sucker who pushed all in against me with 77 preflop in a cash game, I had KK and called, I never fold KK in fear of aces because some people push any pocket. Flop of course comes 77x.
    • radyan111
      radyan111
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 1,151
      Yesterday I went all-in preflop with AA to lose it to 6666 and dropped out of a tournament, such things happen all the time :) . On the other hand I've been winning all-in preflop hands like ATo against two callers - AQs and JJ. You sometimes suck out too :) .
    • adprocas
      adprocas
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.11.2008 Posts: 69
      Yeah, about a week ago I was playing a couple of full tables and saw 3 or 4 four of a kinds. I would have hit one of them, but I folded my pocket 3's to a large pre-flop raise.

      I have also folded A-rag a couple of times to have 3 aces hit the flop. It only seems to happen with aces, though. Either that or I am not paying any attention to the flop if i've got anything but an A in my hand.

      I do remember one time seeing one guy with 3333, but was beat by 9999.

      Crazy stuff!!!

      Another guy had a full house, too. He hit a set of K's or something.

      They were all all-in pre-flop. The guy with the K's ended up getting crushed.

      I was thinking about all of these crazy 'what are the chances' situations. There are a lot of them! So, chances are you will run into a few every once in a while.

      That's why I like poker so much though.
    • clicks
      clicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.08.2008 Posts: 61
      .
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