Non Poker Bonus Question

    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
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      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 581
      I am (was) offered a free $10 Sports bet , (money back if bet loses)

      My question is (having already decided to place a coin flip type bet: Sydney Swans vs Geelong last week) believing a 50/50 bet was my best +EV decision. (knowing sweetfa about sports)

      Should I instead have gone for a longshot?

      Or a dead cert for a $1 for $10 bet odds

      Regards Michael
  • 7 replies
    • NothingIsForSho
      NothingIsForSho
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      Joined: 01.06.2014 Posts: 378
      just be sure to check for any odds restrictions on the free bet. then if you have no clue any bet is good.
    • NothingIsForSho
      NothingIsForSho
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      Joined: 01.06.2014 Posts: 378
      oh i see what you mean now. ev wise if you always get your money back when you lose it shouldn't make a difference.
    • 8runo
      8runo
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      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 652
      If you're not wanting to place the bet and just wanting the free cash - then you can lay the bet off elsewhere to lock in your profit.

      I presume this is pokerstars? (they seem to be having loads of these offers lately) - personally I'm just letting the bet go (and its giving me some kind of interest in events I wouldn't otherwise have any interest in - for example, tonights UEFA Supercup between Barcelona and Seville). With enough of these bets, your EV will probably start to balance out (every time you lay off a bet, you will be giving some of your equity away).

      As above - make sure you always read and fully understand the smallprint - there are usually a number of hoops to jump through, or restrictions, and if you get it wrong, then you don't get the promotional money!
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
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      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 581
      Brilliant answer 8runo
      :-)

      I invest free $10 on Sydney Swans
      I Layoff $5 on Geelong
      Total investment $5
      If Sydney wins I profit $5, If Geelong wins I profit $5

      ..Actually it was PKR.. (and the odds were 1:1.8 each way, 20% shy of even money) You are obviously smarter than you look.

      I learn't something valuable about gambling today
      :-)

      Also: thankx NothinIsforSho, I don't feel so bad about my decision now :-)
    • 8runo
      8runo
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      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 652
      I wouldn't place both bets on PKR - I've just checked the PKR T&C and they have this clause:

      10. PKR reserves the right to withhold any bonus payment if it believes that the promotion has been abused and/or where the terms of the offer are not fulfilled, or any irregular betting patterns are found.
      They may interpret betting on both sides as "abusing the promotion"

      But, if you put your $10 bet on Sydney Swans with PKR - If they win you get $18 back, if they lose, you get $10
      If you bet elsewhere on Geelong, assuming still 1.8, then you need to bet about $4.50 to lock in the same profit. (If Swans win then you get $8 profit on PKR, but lose $4.50 elsewhere - net $3.50 profit. If Geelong win you break even on PKR and win $3.60 elsewhere)

      I don't know much about Aussie Rules (??) - I presume a draw is not possible?
    • GoOnCal1
      GoOnCal1
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      Joined: 22.01.2015 Posts: 581
      Originally posted by 8runo
      I don't know much about Aussie Rules (??) - I presume a draw is not possible?
      Draw is possible (and was quite likely this particular game)
    • 8runo
      8runo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2015 Posts: 652
      Obviously you need to cover all possible outcomes to lock in a profit.

      Your $10 free bet is shrinking in size rapidly though (if converted to guaranteed cash) - are you not tempted to just take your chances and let it ride?