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Push or fold hand

    • Freaky304
      Joined: 12.04.2008 Posts: 63
      I was making the quiz on sng push or fold by vhallee (in the sng section) and I saw a hand that I first thought was in a tournament so I answered it wrong but now i'm curious about how you guys would act in a MTT situation. I changed the blinds and the stacksizes to look a little more realistic for a mtt (everything times 100).

      Question 7:

      Turbo MTT
      Blinds: t10000/t20000 (Ante: t2500) 6 players left

      Hero: t244000
      UTG+1: t121000
      CO: t145500
      Button: t422500
      SB: t161000
      BB: t256000

      Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with 4 :spade: 4 :diamond:
      Hero Push or Fold?

      The player in the BB is rawie_poker, winning player with 7% ROI over 2000 SnGs.

      In a sng you can (probably) better fold but what in a turbo tournament?

      This is my motivation why I would push:

      1. It's a tournament so your in the money already (6 left out of 600)
      2. It's a Turbo so the blinds get higher really fast and you have 12 blinds left.
      3. If you don't get called you take the additional 1.5 blinds.

      And if you DO get called:

      I don't see anyone risking going all in against 2 players at that moment (or he has AA/KK but that's just bad luck) so you probably have to worry about max one caller all others will let you to fight it out one of you goes out and they get more pay-out.

      The chance of having a higher pair is under: 4,5%
      Against most others you have a slight advantage except for suited connecters that don't include an ace and/or king (you have a slight edge over them). So even if you get called by one of them it's a coinflip (you are slightly favorite).

      And a pocket pair is in this situation never dominated (again except against a higher pocket pair) and most of the times favorite, if you need to push later there's always a chance you have to do it with a lesser hand cause even AKs has a lesser win chance then pocket 4's

      If you lose your 6th and take in a nice price.
      If you win you eliminate or cripple another player, become or get near the chipleader and set yourself in a better situation to win.

      Am I thinking wrong on this one? What would you do and why?
  • 7 replies
    • grummeler
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 2,237
      the pot preflop is 45.000
      so with my stack of 245.000 my M is about 5,5.

      thats a real borderline decission. with a M from 3-4,5 i would love to push those small pairs from any position.
      but with my M right about 5 im not in a hurry that bad.
      so i can chose.

      do i want to play for #1 ? if so, go your way and push all in. you need to dubble, and next hand you are in the blinds losing another pile of chips.
      so moving all in now is an extrem agressiv play desined for finishing #1-2 or #6 :)
      and thats the way I like to play. because the #1 and #2 are beeing payed so well.

      but the normal play might be to just fold.
      with an m of 5,5 you arein the middle of the crowd. you can easily climb up the price ladder 2 steps if you sit back and wait for real hands.
      your position is bad, your hand, when being called, is 50/50 or about dead, so just fold and wait for a better spot.

      if the price money for every rank is very interesting for you -> fold.
      if you are running for the real big money and dont care too much about low prices -> push all in.
    • Freaky304
      Joined: 12.04.2008 Posts: 63
      Ah, that explains why I was doubting if folding was the best solution :P .

      I never play for the money in tournaments, I go for first place the rest I don't really care about (offcourse I need the money for my bankroll but I can get that with SnG's and Cashgames).

      Going for the win has it's upsides and downsides, I noticed my early stages in the tournament are pretty weak and maybe to tight but I need to survive the early stages. When and if I reach the bubble i'm always shortstacked but that is my time to strike, from the moment people start playing tight on the bubble I alwas go aggressive untill my tournament is over most times it works good for me :) .
    • grummeler
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 2,237
      there are many different ways to play those tournaments ;)
      i`m still trying to use a somewhat lose agressive style atthe beginning to fish the fishes :P
    • Freaky304
      Joined: 12.04.2008 Posts: 63
      I tried but wasn't succesfull, my post flop play is not yet good enough so I make mistakes that cost me precious chips.

      But indeed there are a lot of different tactics that makes them so fun all players play differently :)

      luckely there are always donkeys that reraise your pocket aces even after you folded 50 hands :)
    • curnow
      Joined: 10.10.2007 Posts: 1,039
      the hand is shite , just fold it
    • steIIstuI
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 1,587
      it's like 50 50 against AQ AJ AT AK so it's not that bad.. i like pp at that stage. Not sure if i would push.. depends on the table image idk
    • Abe1919
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 187
      Yea i think your table image and ofcourse at the final table you might know abit about the other players. For me i think i might fold because you could fold and even though the blinds would go through you,you'd have enough chips and being a turbo other people would be pushing so you could wait briefly for abetter hand and the chance of other people busting out before you make a move,therefore increasing your return without risking going out yourself. It's a 50/50 decision i think.