[NL2-NL10] NL25, A9, freeplay

    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $5,00
      BB:
      $17,70
      CO:
      $39,10
      BU:
      $29,35

      0,1/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.62 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A:diamond: , 9:diamond:
      3 folds, CO calls $0,25, BU calls $0,25, Hero calls $0,15, BB checks.

      Flop: ($1,00) 4:heart: , 8:diamond: , 5:diamond: (4 players)
      Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets $1,00, BU calls $1,00, Hero calls $1,00, BB folds.

      Turn: ($4,00) 2:club: (3 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $2,50, 2 folds, CO gets uncalled bet back..

      Final Pot: $4,00

      I wonder whether I have monster on the flop or not, can I count my A outs as clean? I wasn't sure, so I decided for a smooth call with 3:1 odds and re-evaluate turn.
  • 7 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hello Burek and goodmorning :)


      I wonder whether I have monster on the flop or not, can I count my A outs as clean?
      To be very realistic, at all times I do not count an Ace as an out anymore with more than 2 players in a freeplay, if you look at my A2s hand, you see why. Sometimes people have A5,A4,A8 or even trips where your Toppair doesn't really looks good.

      On the flop it is an easy check/call due 3:1.

      On the turn you get an additional 3 outs for the wheeldraw which gives you a total outs of 12 at most.

      6.5:2.5
      2.6:1 = 13 outs needed.

      Given the circumstances, one can say it's a good fold but nonetheless you have to win the pot 24% so like 25% of the time.
      If you call here you lose 3x2.5$ because you check/fold if you havent hit anything, and you shove on the river if you hit with $1.5 left and the virtual pot on the river would be (2x2.5+4)=9, adding the 1.5x2 up makes it 12

      So it gives you a Net Profit of 12-7.5=4.5 if Villain will call your remaining $1.5 on the River otherwise your net profit will be 1.5 which is good as well.

      I will call and evaluate once again but it is up to you if you want to spend your remaining 18bb in the end on this. looking at CO's AF, well that gives me more reasons to play this pot.

      - Gerv
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey Gerv, good morning to you too! :)

      Thanks for this extensive and most useful post! I didn't have time to do so much thinking while playing that hand, so I tend to fold against a big bet when there's only one card left to be dealt, but you are 100% right, with all of those outs I should've called turn as well since the pot was already so big.

      That's just valuable experience to use in next similar situation and make some $$$. :)

      OK, I wrote the upper stuff 45 min ago then I started to calculate myself and just waking up it took time... :D

      I must disagree with you on something, with odds 6,5:2,5 I would need 27,8% equity, but with 12 outs I only get 26,1%, so without the implied odds this would be unprofitable call. The calculation would be 6,5$(and not 9$) - 3x2,5$= -1$, because when I win I only win the pot already on the table, I cannot count my 2,5$ as a profit when I win the pot. However, if we consider his AF and the small amount of money I have left then I would win 1,5$ more from him which would give me 0,5$(-1 + 1,5) longterm profit.

      I was breaking my head for a long time for this, because it just didn't make sense to me... ...I hope you can review my calculations and tell me if I'm wrong...
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      hello Burek,

      12 outs = 2,9:1 = 3.9^-1 = 25.6% according to equilator you even got less equity...

      http://www.PokerStrategy.com
      Operation canceled... 2.292.776 games processed in 1 seconds.

      Board: 8d 5d 4h 2c
      Dead:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 22,716 % 22,716 % 0,000 % 77,284 % Ad9d
      Player 2: 77,284 % 77,284 % 0,000 % 22,716 % 5s5c

      However I want to stress is that in the worst-case scenario(Trips vs your wheel/flushdraw) that you know 6+2=8 cards out of the 52.

      You have 12 outs which means that your total equity from the Turn to the River is (12/44)x100 = 27.2%, there is 52 card deck but knowning 8 already you have 44 left.

      You lose three times $2.5 and you win 1 time ($4+$5) if he folds on your $1.5 shove whenever you hit. so that makes net-profit of $9-$7.5 = $1.5+

      The thing is that the $2.5 invested is not yours anymore so that goes to the pot Total so that includes your investment on the Turn.

      All-in-All, with getting additional outs on the Turn makes this a good play to just check/call this on the Turn, with 9 outs I would just fold on the Turn.

      Does this enlighten it a bit?
      - Gerv
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Originally posted by Gerv
      You lose three times $2.5 and you win 1 time ($4+$5) if he folds on your $1.5 shove whenever you hit. so that makes net-profit of $9-$7.5 = $1.5+

      The thing is that the $2.5 invested is not yours anymore so that goes to the pot Total so that includes your investment on the Turn.
      So, let's put equity aside and round it off to 25%(I win 1 out of 4 times)...

      As you said, when I invest 2,5$ it's not mine anymore and goes to total pot, right? And if I win the total pot 1 out of 4 times then I have to invest 4 x 2,5$ in order to win 1 time the whole 9$ total pot. So the equation should go: 9$ - 4 x 2,5$ = -1$.

      And also as you wrote in your first post...

      Originally posted by Gerv
      6.5:2.5
      2.6:1 = 13 outs needed.
      This signifies that taken only 12 outs without the implied odds this call cannot be profitable.

      Sorry to bother so much, but I really want to make it clear to me... :rolleyes:

      P.S.: Agree that with 9 outs we wouldn't have anything to talk about here. :)
    • allizdoR
      allizdoR
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2007 Posts: 4,568
      Flop: I am not sure, if calling is the best way.

      Some straights or sets are possible. But a big different to gervs Hand is, that you have 2 OVercards, which can give you up to 6 additional Outs. And we can also count a BDStraight draw and can have sometimes the best Hand or just a very few FE to make a raise profitable.

      Turn:
      I calculate like this:
      Pot is 4+2.5 = 6.5
      to call 2.5
      thats makes 6.5 to 2.5 is equal to 2.6:1 or 1/(2.6+1) which is equal to 27%
      I think you have 9 Flush Outs, 2 for you OC and 2 for your Straight. Thats should be 13 Outs.
      So I call and bring in my few bugs when I hit a big Hand on the River.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      hello burek2000,

      Well concerning my statement I have given before this one, I can agree now that your profit will be like -$0.5

      BUT we didnt count several factors yet. As you said in your 2nd post, your net profit will be $1 when Villain will call your $1.5 on the River. That said, isn't a little bit strange if he folds on your river bet?

      Also your equity is not exact 25% but 27.8% which covers some money thus reducing your loss of -$0.5 to BE

      Well and to add it up at last, an Ace could also be 1 out as CO can bluff frequently (AF).

      Gerv
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Thanks Gerv,

      now everything makes sense to me. :)

      Sorry to bother you with this one so much. :rolleyes: