[NL2-NL10] Nl10 - AKs, odds and outs.

    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      UTG ($6.40)
      UTG+1 ($1.75)
      Hero (MP2) ($1.85)
      MP3 ($2.45)
      CO ($2)
      Button ($1.85)
      SB ($1.95)
      BB ($7.40)

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, A
      UTG calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.50, 4 folds, BB calls $0.40, UTG calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.55) 4, 10, J (3 players)
      BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($1.55) 9 (3 players)
      BB checks, UTG bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, 1 fold

      River: ($2.75) 2 (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero checks

      Total pot: $2.75 | Rake: $0.25

      Do I get enough outs to call the turn. I guess I don't because I'd be behind any KQ or Q8, which are possible games, so my outs aren't clean. Correct?
  • 10 replies
    • burek2000
      burek2000
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      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      If you had all 10 outs clean you would have 21,7% equity and with your pot odds you would need 21,8% equity, so even if all your outs would be clean you would be barely breakeven.

      And on such a flop I think you have at most 7 outs imo, so I would just fold the turn. Also if you see A or K on the river you can lose your whole stack to a better hand. I don't think it's worth the problems, just wait for a better opportunity and/or until you get some more experiences with odds and outs and equity...

      Sorry Ingol, I know it's NL10, but the title says odds and outs. ^^
    • Nunki
      Nunki
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      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      The turn is pretty marginal. Fold/call makes little difference.

      Cbetting flop can't be too bad here since if you do so you will likely get to see all five cards if you don't just take the pot straight down. You also have less than a psb left.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi Dandycall

      The 2 on the Flop decreases your outs drastically and in a multiway pot, just c/f unless you hit a K K A A or Q Q

      Save your stack for a better opportunity when you know for sure you shove it in with the best odds ;)

      best regards,
      Gerv
    • Nunki
      Nunki
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      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by Gerv
      Hi Dandycall

      The 2 on the Flop decreases your outs drastically and in a multiway pot, just c/f unless you hit a K K A A or Q Q

      Save your stack for a better opportunity when you know for sure you shove it in with the best odds ;)

      best regards,
      Gerv
      I'm sorry Gerv but versus a couple of players who play 20/30% vp$ip not c-betting here is a leak. These players both have fishy stack-sizes and probably fishy opening ranges against which we have something like 33% pot-equity. Factor in a small amount of FE and we're clearly +EV. You just can't allow a free-card here as the pot is just too big to let go. We might even be ahead.

      Neither player will have a FD about 80% of the time and even when they do we definitley don't want to let them have a free shot at such a big pot.

      OP: It is very unlikely that you will ever beat NL10 on FT as the rake is just too much. Playing NL 25 on fewer tables will be much more profitable in the long term.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      No actually cbetting against 2 here is the leak, not the other way :O

      And if youre talking stats and opponents, Id rather c-bet against 2 tight players who called me, because they're more likely to fold (probably called with a pocket pair that didnt hit flop then) unlike 30% vpips who definately hit that flop and call the cbet. In any case, vs 2 with no hand = no cbet! No!
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by Fongie
      No actually cbetting against 2 here is the leak, not the other way :O

      And if youre talking stats and opponents, Id rather c-bet against 2 tight players who called me, because they're more likely to fold (probably called with a pocket pair that didnt hit flop then) unlike 30% vpips who definately hit that flop and call the cbet. In any case, vs 2 with no hand = no cbet! No!
      The simple point is that the hand-ranges of the 20/30% VP$IP players are so wide that they do sometimes fold to a cbet or call you with a worse hand often enough. Even when you do get called by a better hand you are almost priced in with your g/s + overs. Weighing up our pot-equity, fold -equity, stack-size/pot-size its an easy shove.

      Eg. Suppose both villain's play 22-TT,A8-AQ,A2s-A7s,54s+,64s+K7s+,Q8s+,any 19+ not already mentioned. The BB calls cbet w/ FD,OESD,TP+ in which case UTG villains calls w/ the same range and both players check to SD. If the BB folds, UTG looks us up with one-pair+,oesd,fd else fold. With these assumptions and a 5% rake we profit by 4BB's. Why check and have to fold to a decent sized turn bet ?

      Cbetting also adds value to our hands like AA,JJ etc. which we would also play in the same manner here.
    • DeKuip
      DeKuip
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      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 10,966
      Originally posted by Nunki
      Cbetting also adds value to our hands like AA,JJ etc. which we would also play in the same manner here.
      People don't really pay attention to that on NL10.
      Besides that, you're IP against two loose players and I don't think you have that much FE. The only reason for betting the flop would be to chase them out of the pot, which isn't very likely in my opinion.

      So there is nothing against getting a freecard and hopefully complete one of your own draws.

      No need to make it extremely complicated here... You've also invested only 5bb, so far from committed.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi Nunki,

      I appreciate your Hand ranges and intermediate explanation but concerning this hand is <NL25 thus basic SSS, I will give a basic SSS answer. This is to prevent {new} players from being confused by the amount of information given.

      I hope you will respect this reply, looking forward to your constructive posts next time!

      Gerv
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Thanks for the replies, very helpful.

      Originally posted by Nunki


      OP: It is very unlikely that you will ever beat NL10 on FT as the rake is just too much. Playing NL 25 on fewer tables will be much more profitable in the long term.
      Yeah, actually it's taking a while for me to beat Nl10 on Fulltilt. But I think it's far from impossible and I expect to make it before 30k hands if I don't run up against a bad downswing.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
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      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by DeKuip

      So there is nothing against getting a freecard and hopefully complete one of your own draws.

      Having to fold in the face of a decent turn bet? Seeing our equity plummet on many turns? Allowing ourselve only one way of winning the hand?



      Originally posted by DeKuip

      No need to make it extremely complicated here... You've also invested only 5bb, so far from committed.
      Less than a psb behind with a good eight outs (if needed) => we're pretty much committed.

      DeKuip: The 4BB profit subject to the assumptions I gave earlier in this thread is correct+-5%. It is not plucked out of the air.


      OP:


      Originally posted by Nunki
      Originally posted by hammiemon85

      Should i maybe try moving up to nl25 as the rake is double at nl10 and could be eating into my profits in a big way?

      Not could but is. PS should really be advising against playing with 10% rake in ANY game. I imagine that the deal they have with FT disallows them from doing this.

      There have been many posts about NL10 and the rake at FT but the message has never really gotten across. DO NOT PLAY IN THESE GAMES IF YOU LIKE MONEY. The amount extra that it costs to play SSS in 10% rake games as opposed to 5% is of the order of 2.5PTBB/100. ie. The win-rate of a good player. It is even more than 2.5 ptbb/100 if you play BSS.

      Why does nobody ever listen?