is 4bet calling AK +EV?

    • mattyvx
      Joined: 15.04.2015 Posts: 493
      lets propose we face a 3bet from an opponant with a reasonable contructed range (decent reg) and we know his 5bet jamming range is QQ+,AK for 100bb's

      As standard I am 4betting and stacking off here with Ace king but it is really plus EV+?

      I open to 3bb
      villian 3bets to 9bb
      hero 4bets to 22bb
      villian jams 100bb
      1.5bb's in the pot from the blinds
      So -> Risk/Risk+Reward = 91 / (91+[3+9+22+91+1.5]) = 41% equity required

      IP BTNvSB
      = 93/(93+[2+7+18+93+1]) = 43% equity required

      Actual equity with AKo = 38.8% and 41.91 with AKs

      We also consider at stars for example rake cap for my limit is $2 so we loose 4% of the pot in rake

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    61.18%  40.50%  20.68% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
      MP3    38.82%  18.15%  20.68% { AKo }

      OOP even excluding rake we don't have enough equity to call with AKo and AKs is marginal?
      IP both a folds in isolation

      So some questions from a vacuum point of view

      - Given that i very very rarely see people shoving with KQ or A5 or something is it really +EV to call it off? also taking into account rake?

      - Should villian be jamming some bluff hands & what would they be or should he use a min 5bet strategy?

      - is my sizing OK for 4betting OOP 22bb's -> 9?

      The from a theory point of view
      if we are calling it off to avoid being exploitable (folding too much to 4bets) then the impact of 4bet folding it means we need to have a smaller 4betting range, thus in turn means we need to call more hands to 3bets. So perhaps calling it off is slightly minus but it's less minus than calling suited connectors OOP for example?
  • 4 replies
    • mattyvx
      Joined: 15.04.2015 Posts: 493
      any thoughts?
    • muel294
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,205
      I have always thought this myself but have just taken it for granted that we should 4b/call with AK b/c by the time we have placed a 4b the amount of equity or hand has vs villain's range is sufficient given the amount of equity required to call.

      However, as you have shown here this is not the case unless as you say they 5b shove wider than QQ+/AKo+
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,850
      well there's EV when he calls your 4bet too. this is an interesting topic to think about for sure though, in many circumstances it's not as simple as has AK i 4bet :f_biggrin:
    • double2
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      I'm not sure I follow you pot odds calcs. If hero 4bets to 22bbs and faces a shove is it not 78/200= 39% equity required?

      And the fact that you have a marginal, close to BE, decision facing a shove does not remotely imply that we should start considering calling 3bets with AK.

      Other thing, assuming a CO vs BU situation, BU 3bets ~9% vs CO. If he only shoves QQ+/AK (and never calls 4bets) then he is folding to 4bets ~70%, which is massively exploitable.