What do you do to minimize the effect of variance on your game when you running bad?

    • sanebites
      sanebites
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      Joined: 05.03.2015 Posts: 8
      Hello everyone.
      What do you do to minimize the effect of variance on your game when you running bad?
      How many hands do you need to play before realizing that your game turned around and that you’re not longer on the winning track?
      How long does last your tilt? Do you rage quit, stop playing for a month?
      Or do you go down in stakes, play less tables at the same times, try another poker room?
      Do you get tighter?
      Do you try to go back into the zone?
      Tell me what you do and what works for you the most in this period of time.
      Thanks
      Up to now we have:
      - Check your cashier once a month.
      - Have a bankroll of between 50 to 100 buy in ( depending on how many tables you play at once)
      - Balance your game . Here a post about ,balancing your game
  • 12 replies
    • Dadramel
      Dadramel
      Silver
      Joined: 10.08.2014 Posts: 3,001
      Well, I check the bankroll balance once a month, since 30 days may be considered quantifable indicator of winning player i would stop playing if noticed I have a deficit (ofc relatively big volume involved)
    • lkdr9494
      lkdr9494
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2012 Posts: 210
      You have to rationalize that bad beats are part of the game. No place for emotions. If it was bad luck there's nothing you can do, you keep playing, assuming you have a good game and a good bankroll management you'll end up winning long term. If you can't lose a hand without losing your cool this game isn't for you. Of course if you get 3 bad beats in a row you can consider it's not your day, but if we are realist that's not how luck works.

      My advice: focus on improving your game and having a good bankroll management. You can't control luck. If you tilt too much that's a leak. Work on that for a month. If you solve this and are still losing you have to work on your game. You are making mistakes and you don't know it. Do you mind if I ask what type and stakes are you currently playing and how long have you been playing?
    • sanebites
      sanebites
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      Joined: 05.03.2015 Posts: 8
      Hi Berezovaya. Not looking at your balance is an excellent thing to do for so many reasons. This will take off you the fear that you can experience when your bankroll keeps going down and you keep focus on it. It s like being on a diet. If you weight yourself every day you will loose faith and not fat :) . That is because on day you may have loose 500 gr. but the day after you might put on 800 gr. But if you weight yourself every month you will notice that you are loosing weight and you will have a big smile on your face.
      Dusty Schmidt in his book - Treat your poker like a business - wrote a chapter called : Don't look at the cashier, where he adds :
      " This advice applies so long as you’re following what I said previously of keeping 100 buy-ins in your bankroll. If you’re not to that threshold yet, you may have to check the cashier to make sure you’re not in any serious bankroll trouble"
      100 buy in looks quit a lot. This mean if you are playing NL5 you need to start with a bankroll of $500. Saying that, this guy plays 20 tables at the time so yes 100 buy in looks good. I play between 1 to 4 tables at the time so my starting bankroll is closer to 40 buy in.
    • sanebites
      sanebites
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      Joined: 05.03.2015 Posts: 8
      Thanks for your reply Lkdr9494. Variance happens at any stakes, games : cash MMT SandG etc.
      Variance is what make poker so good . Without it the game would not be challenging, players would not go on tilt making more and more mistakes etc. Variance affect everyone what ever your knowledge. Variance drives world class players mad. The majority of players know that variance exist but what do they do about it. Personally, if you do nothing it's like saying it was bad luck or he got lucky. I see variance as a wave, and I'm convince that you can surf it, giving you a huge edge and especially against the geeks how can ONLY focus on numbers percentages...
      So, what do you do to make this happen ? You said, work on your game. Tell me more.
    • lkdr9494
      lkdr9494
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2012 Posts: 210
      Originally posted by sanebites
      Thanks for your reply. Variance happens at any stakes, games : cash MMT SandG etc.
      Variance is what make poker so good . Without it the game would not be challenging, players would not go on tilt making more and more mistakes etc. Variance affect everyone what ever your knowledge. Variance drives world class players mad. The majority of players know that variance exist but what do they do about it. Personally, if you do nothing it's like saying it was bad luck or he got lucky. I see variance as a wave, and I'm convince that you can surf it, giving you a huge edge and especially against the geeks how can ONLY focus on numbers percentages...
      So, what do you do to make this happen ? You said, work on your game. Tell me more.
      If you don't share the variant and stakes you are playing I can't help you much further about working in your game.
      All games have different strategies, but when I say work in your game I mean find your leaks and fix them.
      Tilting is a leak. A leak you have to work on, you have to control your emotions. Yes it sucks when villain gets that only out that would get him the win in the river. In my book that's the definition of bad luck. You played your A-game and got sucked out. It happens. It's inevitable. What you can avoid is the tilt that comes afterward with all the mistakes.
      If it was bad luck why would you change the way you are playing? Variance is luck. It's not a wave. It's random. Humans have difficulties dealing with random stuff, we don't like it when things don't have a reason, so we invent one that sounds reasonable enough.

      I don't know if I misunderstood what you said and what I'm trying to make clear is you don't work in your luck you work in your game.
    • sanebites
      sanebites
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      Joined: 05.03.2015 Posts: 8
      Originally posted by lkdr9494
      Originally posted by sanebites
      Thanks for your reply. Variance happens at any stakes, games : cash MMT SandG etc.
      Variance is what make poker so good . Without it the game would not be challenging, players would not go on tilt making more and more mistakes etc. Variance affect everyone what ever your knowledge. Variance drives world class players mad. The majority of players know that variance exist but what do they do about it. Personally, if you do nothing it's like saying it was bad luck or he got lucky. I see variance as a wave, and I'm convince that you can surf it, giving you a huge edge and especially against the geeks how can ONLY focus on numbers percentages...
      So, what do you do to make this happen ? You said, work on your game. Tell me more.
      If you don't share the variant and stakes you are playing I can't help you much further about working in your game.
      All games have different strategies, but when I say work in your game I mean find your leaks and fix them.
      Tilting is a leak. A leak you have to work on, you have to control your emotions. Yes it sucks when villain gets that only out that would get him the win in the river. In my book that's the definition of bad luck. You played your A-game and got sucked out. It happens. It's inevitable. What you can avoid is the tilt that comes afterward with all the mistakes.
      If it was bad luck why would you change the way you are playing? Variance is luck. It's not a wave. It's random. Humans have difficulties dealing with random stuff, we don't like it when things don't have a reason, so we invent one that sounds reasonable enough.

      I don't know if I misunderstood what you said and what I'm trying to make clear is you don't work in your luck you work in your game.

      Thanks again for your reply. I m ok with what you say about tilting. However I really don t know where did you get and insist on the fact that I've got a such big issue with it. Unless you stop reading me at " How long does last your tilt? Do you rage quit, stop playing for a month? " this was an example of the kind of answer I'm looking for like " Or do you go down in stakes, play less tables at the same times, try another poker room?"
      Berezovaya did make exactly the kind of post I need.
      There is enough stuff on the internet, forums and books about strategy in any stakes and variant of the game.
      But one thing I totally disagree with you it s when you say : If it was bad luck why would you change the way you are playing ? Good players are impredictable. If you don't change your game you are predictable so beatable. A good way to be impredictable it's to fallow the flow of variance because yes it is random.
      It is exactly the same thing in fact that saying I'm in the zone. There is two excellent books about it The mental game of poker 1 and 2 by Jared Tendler
    • lkdr9494
      lkdr9494
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2012 Posts: 210
      Originally posted by sanebites
      There is enough stuff on the internet, forums and books about strategy in any stakes and variant of the game.
      But one thing I totally disagree with you it s when you say : If it was bad luck why would you change the way you are playing ? Good players are impredictable. If you don't change your game you are predictable so beatable. A good way to be impredictable it's to fallow the flow of variance because yes it is random.
      It is exactly the same thing in fact that saying I'm in the zone. There is two excellent books about it The mental game of poker 1 and 2 by Jared Tendler
      Your game should be unpredictable. That's why I am saying don't change the way you are playing. I was assuming you were balancing your game when needed.
      I'm not familiar with the term being in the zone. I just think we might be misunderstanding each other. What does follow the flow of variance means?
    • sanebites
      sanebites
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      Joined: 05.03.2015 Posts: 8
      Thank you for your patience. You put your finger on it. Balancing my game is certainly something I need to work on. That is exactly what I was looking for when I created that post. Thanks again
    • sanebites
      sanebites
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      Joined: 05.03.2015 Posts: 8
      Up to now we have:
      - Check your cashier once a month.
      - Have a bankroll of between 50 to 100 buy in ( depending on how many tables you play at once)
      - Balance your game . [Edited by SDK1987] a post about ,balancing your game
    • Post removed

    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 32,920
      Hello sanebites

      I needed to removed a link in you're last post, because it's against Our forum principles to post links of competitors.

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
    • kerith
      kerith
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.07.2015 Posts: 130
      This is my 2cents:
      When I lose money I ask myself: "Did I lose because I was unlucky, or did I lose becaiuse I made wrong decisions" If you are honest with yourself, and are making the right decisions, then actually changing your game can be -EV, either because you tighten up or because you loosen up.

      In a way, we can't actually minimize de effect of variance, because we can't really affect the variance. And if we do change our game based on our luck, we could be actually making a huge mistake, because there's no way to know how lucky you are going to be on a certain hand.

      Now, what we CAN do is improve our game, to help us make better decissions, and even realize that there were decissions where we didn't see ones (where to sit at the table, how to change your opening bet sizes, even how to position your HUD).

      But, at the end of the day, the only thing you can do is make the best decision you can, close your eyes, and raise all-in ;)

      Best regards,
      Kerith