[NL2-NL10] NL25 QQ - when to fold

    • johnbeattie85
      johnbeattie85
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $31.00
      BB:
      $22.45
      Hero:
      $4.90
      MP2:
      $11.40
      MP3:
      $26.80
      CO:
      $18.20
      BU:
      $14.25

      0.1/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.65 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q:club: , Q:heart:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $1.00, 2 folds, CO calls $1.00, 2 folds, BB raises to $3.25, Hero raises to $4.90 (All-In), CO folds, BB calls $1.65.

      Flop: ($10.90) J:heart: , A:spade: , K:heart:
      Turn: ($10.90) K:diamond:
      River: ($10.90) 5:heart: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $10.90

      Overview: Would folding have been the right move here? Looking at BB's stats, he's probably raising with JJ+, AK at the very best. Possibly even QQ+.

      Assuming CO folds, I need about 39% equity to push here. I have 47% vs AK, JJ+ and 21% vs QQ+. If CO calls things improve slightly given his loose stats. So what to do?
  • 6 replies
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Looking at his PFR he prolly 3-bets KK+, so I would fold here. However, if you think you can put him on JJ+/AK+ then you have an easy push.
    • johnbeattie85
      johnbeattie85
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      Well I was thinking he might be a bit looser from the BB. But I don't know if its correct to assume that in this case.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      His PFR is 2% which is already tighter than JJ+/AK, but since your sample size is not huge there can be variance in stats for few %, but even if he does raise JJ+/AK his 3-bet(reraise) range will in most cases be tighter than PFR. And this kind of tight players, who raise only premium hands reraise only KK+... ...but that's only what I could tell you from his stats over 458 hands, so it would be nice to have some other reads too to be more sure. You could also push like you did and make a note on what he had, if you see KK+ it will probably mean I'm right, but otherwise you know you can push against him in same situation.
    • johnbeattie85
      johnbeattie85
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      Yeah, I think you were definatly right here. Thanks for the reply and advice.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      hello johnbeattie85,

      I will never fold QQ here on NL25 even though you use stats. I see some guys raising like 10% in EP while they raise only 2% of their hands in late position so his 2 PFR is too general.

      Also Co is representing dead money and if he calls, you get better equity.

      I will push,
      Gerv
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      I also see some guys playing AA/KK only on NL25...

      I think we can consider PFR of 2% quite tight and as I said before, 3-bet range is usually going to be tighter...

      Another thing, how can player raise 10% from EP and 2% from all the other positions and have average of 2%? In that case he would have 3,5-4,5 PFR.