Good Lord! Don't move up to NL50-SH until you have like 100 stacks!

    • SalamiandCheese
      SalamiandCheese
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      I've built up a nice bankroll, about $1050 since June. I've been doing well on NL25-SH, up $200 in a week and a half or so, so I figured "hey, let's give NL50 a try!"

      Well, I ran into AA three times in my first session of 48min and 128 hands, and was down $125. I figured out one thing at least: people at NL50 actually bet their hands... son of a bitch, who knew!
  • 13 replies
    • darkonebg
      darkonebg
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 17.01.2008 Posts: 9,508
      Aaah, its just variance.Two stacks and a half isnt a big big deal :D .NL50 gave me a wellcome second visit too, as you can see on november 28 :D
    • SalamiandCheese
      SalamiandCheese
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      Good Lord!!! On the 28th it's about a -12/bb downswing over 5.4k hands or 13 stacks. That can happen. How many stacks to start at NL50 and at what point should you move down from there? For me I'm thinking maybe 40-50 so I'm half-way there. Right now I only play about 2-3k hands a week.
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      omg 28th , and I tought I was running bad
    • darkonebg
      darkonebg
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 17.01.2008 Posts: 9,508
      I was thinking about 20 stacks to move up, as I was beating NL50 not so long ago. But y, such swings can happen, and I love to play deepstacked, so I'm building 30 stacks right now.
      @alejandrosh - such things happen.It took me 7 days to recover, and now Im even ahead :P
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Stop loss is something you've never heard of I take it ? :D
    • SalamiandCheese
      SalamiandCheese
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      Well according to my calculations, I'm now down $360 playing NL50-SH playing under 1k hands after 4-5 tries at it. Good starting hands don't seem to be any good. Just sitting around calling hoping for a suck out seems to be the better strategy. "Good" starting hands don't seem to get any action unless someone has sucked out. I haven't been lucky enough to suck out on someone else and win a stack or two even though I've modified my strategy to get more suck out hands in there and didn't play stuff like AJo from early position. Things were going ok this time except for the dude calling my pot sized bets when I had a straight on the turn and hit his full house on the river - villian had 58s, and when I had KK and had someone calling me on the flop and hit their set of 8's on the turn. Down another $115 for the session today.

      Looking back at all the sessions, I think I could have avoided some of the damage by just folding to any action against my overpairs or TPTK. But I think I've had it for a while with NL-SH and I'm just going to stick with the fixed limit where everything is going well and also play some tourneys where garbage play doesn't seem to get rewarded as much.
    • SalamiandCheese
      SalamiandCheese
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      Ok I feel better now. Used some points to get a $50 tourney token and won $182. :D
    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      Yeasterday I wrote poste about varriance ;)

      Something about variance and expected results

      With 120BB Stdev for NL SH, the -13 stacks are 1 stack outside the 95% confidence interval, but still within 99.97% confidence interval (that is that is -21BI to +31BI)

      And do not worry... yeasterady I did -$70 on FL 0.5/1... in 650 hands... also very nice performance

      Regards

      TTT
    • SalamiandCheese
      SalamiandCheese
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      Nice post on variance.

      I think I miscalculated the number of hands. Yesterday I played 650 hands so I think I must have played 1.5-2k hands. I've been deleting the hands from PT3 because I just want to forget that ever happened!

      I think I was making big mistakes in way ahead/way behind situations at NL50-SH. My game at NL20-SH is just fine but how I play in these way ahead/way behind situations at NL50-SH definitely needs some adjusting for when I play there again, which I shouldn't do anytime soon.

      Cheers
    • SalamiandCheese
      SalamiandCheese
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      Alright I can add another $104 to the downswing after playing 758 hands today. What went wrong this time? Well I lost a stack to AA after the CO raiser 4bet me. His stats were raise and 3-bet stats were pretty loose and LAG'ish so I thought QQ should be in the range I could push with - it's either push or fold in that spot I think. The other stack I lost was to a set when I had an overpair, KK. I think I should have folded to the flop call, raise turn line villian played but like I said earlier in this thread, should I fold tptk and overpairs to action? I pretty much went for it again this time just to satisfy my curiosity and saw what I expected to see, a flopped set of 5's.

      I hit a set but only won a $25 stack and the other $30 or so was lost to when I cbet the flop and got action when I didn't have a draw or overcards, or I folded after 2nd barreling the turn only to get raise or something, which I folded to since this is what cost me so many stacks from previous attempts. The spots where I have nothing to 2nd barrel with cost $4-5 bucks so they add up - the spots are pretty much the same as when I get action from a monster only I don't have anything to back up a second barrel.

      Other than that, I win about 45% of hands where I see the flop. Here's a few more stats,

      Vpip: 16.8
      Pfr: 13.1
      3Bet PF: 4.25
      WTSD: 19.3
      AF: 5.8

      I could have saved about $82 on those all-in hands today but I would still be down $25-30 over these 758 hands.

      It just seems to nitty to fold almost every spot I get action when I have an overpair or TPTK. Is this what I should almost always do and hope to pick up the $25-30 loss later on or is there something I'm completely missing in this analysis, i.e. should I think way ahead/way behind and play check call after action on the flop?
    • Balanarm
      Balanarm
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2008 Posts: 17,163
      Originally posted by TTT241
      Yeasterday I wrote poste about varriance ;)

      Something about variance and expected results

      With 120BB Stdev for NL SH, the -13 stacks are 1 stack outside the 95% confidence interval, but still within 99.97% confidence interval (that is that is -21BI to +31BI)

      And do not worry... yeasterady I did -$70 on FL 0.5/1... in 650 hands... also very nice performance

      Regards

      TTT
      This post is wrong, read my comments.
    • AdrienD
      AdrienD
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.07.2008 Posts: 22
      Originally posted by SalamiandCheese

      Other than that, I win about 45% of hands where I see the flop. Here's a few more stats,

      Vpip: 16.8
      Pfr: 13.1
      3Bet PF: 4.25
      WTSD: 19.3
      AF: 5.8

      Wow. I'm not playing at your limit but having 16.8/13.1 is really tight for 6max and only winning 45%$WSF and going to showdown only 19.3% with such a tight range seems weird. I'm just wondering but maybe you aren't doing enough bluffcatching and folding the best hand too often as you suspect:

      i.e. should I think way ahead/way behind and play check call after action on the flop?
    • SalamiandCheese
      SalamiandCheese
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      Well I've started playing fixed limit and it's going well so far.

      As for the stats, they are at the lower end of standard tag ranges. Probably had a bit to do with a run of poor starting hands and bad luck post-flop, ie. not getting any action on my monster hands. The w$wsf is pretty good actually. The problem was that my opponents were folding too much - I was winning money without showdown. As soon as I saw action I was almost always up against a monster. When I need a break from FL maybe I'll try NL50 again but playing more of a LAG style.