Running under EV as a costant may be some leaks for Hero other then just variance?

    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Dear Forum,

      I was hoping you may help me to clarify on such matter that Im not pretty sure how to read it!

      Im, by now, on over 100K hands (122K) played at Cash Games tables, Im running heavily under EV of about 50% (47.8%)

      I have notice that's a constant on every single room, the data is very very close and similar with and numerically gap between the winning and the EV Adjust that's going to be similar (as said) on all the rooms

      So, because this particular coincidence, I wonder if it may be caused by some leaks that's Im carrying (so, maybe it can explain why the data is the same on all the rooms) or it is just variance and Im at moment on the another side of the blind God

      With my 2bb/100 vs what should be between 4-5bb/100 I wonder if you may help me to understand and if necessary take the right adjustments to my game

      Thanks! :)

      P.S. Below the graph so far in case may helps to the cause :f_biggrin:

  • 4 replies
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      it's standard, try to find some old graphs of BsB and you will see that you are actually pretty good compare to him...
      you cannot control how you run compare to EV so on that side there is nothing you can do.

      your EV is pretty low low so running a a little below ev is affecting you much more and a bit more could put you in the red.

      one thing appears to me is that you seem to fold to much and not bluff enough :) (dat red line :D )

      basically your ev line should be much much higher!
    • tonypmm
      tonypmm
      Silver
      Joined: 11.01.2009 Posts: 3,853
      That's caused by PKR intentionally not writing opponents' cards into the hand history if they lose an all-in (this only applies to ring games - in tourneys, cards are flipped over immediately after an all-in race begins and are recorded in the HH). HM2 assumes that your equity was 100% in such hands, but it calculates your real equity when you lose. So it recognises that you run below EV if you lose a flip, but falsely assumes that you don't run above EV if you win it. There's no way to fix that, so the EV line is useless for PKR ring games.

      The other Pokerstrategy partner rooms do record mucked cards, so running below EV there is indeed a /typical manifestation of variance, but i assume that your sample from those other rooms is smaller. But of course it can't be a result of leaks - even for weakest /freshfish, like for everyone, the difference between the EV lossrate and the real lossrate converges to 0 in the long run almost surely.
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      Originally posted by tonypmm
      the difference between the EV lossrate and the real lossrate converges to 0 in the long run almost surely.

      heeee, no it won't :D

      think about it a bit more before I expand on it :P
    • tonypmm
      tonypmm
      Silver
      Joined: 11.01.2009 Posts: 3,853
      I see what you mean, but I said 'lossrate' (losses divided by the number of hands / games). The difference between the total real and expected winnings (not divided by anything) of course won't converge - it will stay the same on average as it is right now.