[NL2-NL10] nl 10 read on a monster preflop?!

    • covername
      Joined: 21.11.2008 Posts: 5
      I post the stats I had at the time of the play, because they do differ from the ones Elephant is showing me after some more time played.

      Hero ($3,66)

      UTG1 ($9,80)
      VP$IP 7 %
      Raise 7%
      Hands: 30

      MP1 ($19,25)
      13 hands; 2 raises; 11 folds

      0,05/0,1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.65 by http://www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q :club: , Q :diamond: (Comment)
      UTG1 calls $0,10, UTG2 folds, MP1 calls $0,10, 2 folds, Hero calls $0,10, BU folds, SB calls $0,05, BB checks.

      Comment: I found it quite strange to have two relatively tight players, who never called once, limp from a bad position. Since I was suspecting a monster hand and already had a bigger stack at risk, I decided to limp.

      Flop: ($0,50) A :diamond: , 2 :club: , 6 :spade: (5 players) (Comment)
      SB bets $0,10, BB folds, UTG1 raises to $0,30, 2 folds, SB calls $0,20.

      Comment: When the Ace hit the flop, I was sure that I had to fold even though there was no preflop raise.

      Turn: ($1,10) T :club:( 2 players) (Comment)
      SB bets $0,80, UTG1 calls $0,80.

      River: ($2,70) J :spade:( 2 players) (Comment)
      SB raises $0,01 (All-In), UTG1 calls $0,01.

      Final Pot: $2,72

      My questions:

      a) Given above information, what would you do preflop: call or raise? In case of a raise: How much? I think folding isn’t an option since my stack is big enough for implied odds on a set and I could still invest into the pot if I sensed weakness after the flop.

      b) What information would you require to make above play preflop? (More hands, lower vp$ip, a note on slow playing KK or AA)

      c) In case you would’ve raised (Standard $0,60). How would you react to an all-in reraise from UTG1?
  • 7 replies
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      First of all, 13 and 30 hands is nothing to make any reliable read from it.

      A) Given the upper infos I just stick to the basic strategy as the villains are unkown to me and even against 7% PFR we are ahead with QQ. So, I would reraise preflop to 6BBs, 0.60$.

      B) I would never make above play preflop. If UTG had VPIP of 4% or less over 5k hands then I would make a fold, in any other case I play as in point A). But I've never seen anyone with so low VPIP that would make me fold QQ in my poker career.

      C) Again, villain is unknown with 30 hands in your stats, therefore you go broke with QQ even with increased stack.
    • covername
      Joined: 21.11.2008 Posts: 5
      Thanks for your advice, You convinced me that raising preflop is the right play especially given the low statistical evidence. Additionally, I would get valuable information from the reaction to the raise, which would make the postflop play more profitable I guess.

      I'm still not sure about the bet size and calling an all-in though. Since I'm curious about a call, I think a call-reraise would prove my thougt.

      Why I was so unsure is not only because of the low PFR but PFR and VP$IP being exactly the same, meaning the villains would not call any hands but raise. This seemed very strange to me again I acknowledge the lack of statistical evidence.
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Usually you treat limp/raisers as if there was a raise behind you and you should push all-in depending on your raise: remaining stack ratio, but QQ is good enough to go all-in with any ratio if you raised and got reraised. So, the best thing you can do is go all-in and make a note on the villain if he is limp/raising monsters, so you can fold next time, but when you play against unkown you definitely want to put your money in the pot when holding QQ.

      About betsize, just stick to the basics, 4BB + 1BB per limper.

      And if his PFR and VPIP are the same, it only means that in the first 30 hands he didn't limp any of the hands he played, only raised 2 of them. However, with only 30 hands, you cannot tell whether this is deviation from his play or not, so just bet your pocket queens. You must know, there aren't many hands that are better than yours. ;)
    • Fongie
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Dude, you limped with QUEENS! Prepare to stand trial for your crimes :P
      No but really, please just raise if it says raise in your chart. Queens are definately good enough for me to be all in even with a double stack. And watch out for stats... they can be dangerous if you rely on them with too small sample sizes.
    • IngolPoker
      Joined: 05.09.2006 Posts: 10,463
      You suspect a strong hand because they LIMP??? Makes no sense ^^ EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEASY raise!! MUST raise

      btw, you have 30 and 13 hands from your opponents, absolutely no samplesize!
      And even if the stats were real, it would be an EEEEAAASSSYYYY raise :D
    • covername
      Joined: 21.11.2008 Posts: 5
      Alright I got it ;) Will raise preflop next time, for sure.
      Still not sure about an all-in call though. But probably it is not as eeeeeeasy for me to accept your advice because this particular play worked out (UTG1 was holding AA). Probably I need a good night of sleep before the fact sinks in.

      Thanks for the advice to all!
    • Jaime001254
      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 366
      i almost never fold queens, its just way ahead most ranges, (sure, a 78s+ maniac can have AA but thats poker)