[NL2-NL10] nl 10 resteal slow play

    • covername
      covername
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.11.2008 Posts: 5
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $2,45
      Hero:
      $2,40

      0,05/0,1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.65 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A:spade: , J:spade:
      7 folds, SB raises to $0,40, Hero calls $0,30.

      [/I]

      Flop: ($0,80) 2:club: , 4:diamond: , 7:heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $0,50, Hero calls $0,50.

      Comment: No cards for anyone with a good hand. Stadard push for a shortstack past flop (no read on him being a “standard” short stack though). I called since I was still not convinced he had a hand.[I]

      Turn: ($1,80) 6:heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero raises $1,50 (All-In), SB folds.

      Final Pot: $3,30

      My questions:

      a) Given stats and my hand. Would you’ve reraised preflop. I ran the equilator against a stealing range of 25% hands and was ahead 59% to 41%. What further information would you base your decision on when deciding whether to raise, call or fold?
      b) How would you’ve played flop and turn? Flop call or raise? Bet size on turn? I can't get my head around the call on the flop being profitable. I tried doing a calculation of the situation on the flop that seems to be too optimistic though. Here is my try:

      Assumption:
      90% of the time he would bet the flop no matter what hand, if he's not that type of player I assume to lose this hand against a made hand (standard sss play)
      20% of the time a sss would actually have a hand (A7, overpair or flopped set probably judging from hand range)
      5% he would check the turn with a made hand
      10% he would fire again at the pot without a made hand, in which case I would fold

      90%*((1-35%)*$1,80+5%*(-$0,50-$1,5)) = 0,9*(1,17-0,1) = 0,96

      Paying 0,50 for an expected win of 0,96 is pretty good I guess. But I feel the decision is much closer in reality and I have made a failure in my calculation/assumption.
  • 9 replies
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      hmmm, I normally prefer to resteal pre, or call and push flop as my anti-stealing strategy.

      However, I rather like this line at first glance against a by-the-book SSSer as we can discover on the turn if he has a made hand or not and force him to fold otherwise. I think a small enough % of his range should be made up of Pockets to make this Line Profitable.

      I feel That I have to think this one over though. Its not always going to turn out as easy as this one.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Sorry, but I don't think you can just calculate like you did, since your assumptions are waaaaay too incorrect 99% of the time...

      I push AJ from BB vs 14 PFR over 51 hands, despite the small sample, all day long if the villain open raises late/blinds. So, I would go for a direct push preflop. I don't like calling with SSS and in the long term it will lead you into trouble and will burn your money.
    • covername
      covername
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.11.2008 Posts: 5
      OK, reraise preflop would be the standard play and I try to use that play the next time I face the situation.
      I'd still like to know how you would've played flop and turn.

      @burek2000: Again thanks for the help, no need to be sorry. I agree that my assumptions are very rough. Do you have any advice on which stats to use for a correct calculation? And if the correct calculation is too complicated during in-play situations, are there any indicators that can be used? I know this shouldn't be standard play especially for a beginner but I'm curious if the play was +EV anyway.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      As played, I would have played c/f without a made hand all the way postflop.

      Howevere, if you play more in the spirit of SSS, then you get call out of your mind and there you have two options when facing a steal raise, push/fold...

      So, I presume you already downloaded the equilator...

      The best thing to do is to calculate your equity against his range, which means you put into equilator AJs vs 14% handrange, there you will se that you are ahead of his range...

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 48,356% 43,690% 9,332% 46,978% 55+, A7s+, KTs+, A9o+, KJo+
      Player 2: 51,644% 46,978% 9,332% 43,690% AJs

      And considering his ORL is even higher than PFR, you should have an even bigger edge against him, also, the PFR you see is PFR average of all positions, but villain's PFR in late/blind position will be even looser, specially when it's folded to him. So, even the sample size you have is small you should be ahead of his range most of the time and therefore a push against him would be +EV.

      Of course, you don't have time to make all this calculations while playing and that's more the way to analize your hand, so you can learn what to do next time in similar situation. But for practical use, you can download different charts from the articles or make your own to see what hands are profitable to push and what to fold according to villain's PFR. Also with time and experience you'll know by heart when the push is profitable and when not.
    • matt1234
      matt1234
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 99
      Would have thought this line is more BSS. Floating on flop is dangerous for a SS as you are committed to the hand post-flop. However, he obviously didn't have a hand so your read was correct, well played to that part. I'd r-r PF though, standard is to $1.20 = 0.5 stack, so push directly.

      In relation to you other questions, pushing flop is fine imo, as is your bet on the turn, standard steal. Looks more like an MTT play if I am honest.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      The only reason people see this as acceptable now is because the play actually worked. If SB had called you down with a pocket pair on the turn you'd get a lot more "negative" comments.

      If you want to resteal this, do it preflop. Don't call a proper (minraises CAN BE exceptions on the bb) raise using SSS, it's just a big no-no. Me personally I don't like restealing against SB either, normally you resteal against BU/CO raises.
      Also, remember that the ATS stat, if Im not mistaken, only counts raises first in from BU/CO, and NOT from SB.

      To me it looks like a try-too-advanced-stuff-tilt situation :P because floating the flop like that just won't work often enough.

      Conclusion: Push preflop :)
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Originally posted by Fongie
      Also, remember that the ATS stat, if Im not mistaken, only counts raises first in from BU/CO, and NOT from SB.
      I agree with that, but open-raise-late-position gives you kind of general picture of how often player steals and open raises from SB are as well considered steals. Specially when people see a shorty on the BB they tend to steal, at least from my experiences. Since I started playing NL50 this week, I saw quite few players who had 100% steal from SB when I was BB.
    • matt1234
      matt1234
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 99
      Fongie - Its seen as acceptable because it works a lot of the time :D If you can put your opponent on a hand range and the flop misses their range, IP you can push them off it. It's definitely more a BSS move but it can be effective too in SSS, I assume as he sees you are a SS you have a tighter range, and possibly an overpair. But like I said before, I prefer re-steal pre or on the flop, instead of a float.
    • IngolPoker
      IngolPoker
      Black
      Joined: 05.09.2006 Posts: 10,467
      dont CALL preflop
      push or fold

      here push because he might have a wide range