BRM for CAP PL games

    • Jim9137
      Jim9137
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2007 Posts: 5,608
      So, as I asked Sim87 in the coaching in monday about BRM for CAP PL games. I have no idea for the math behind general BRM guidelines (except it involves lots of numbers), so I have no idea how to adjust my bankroll for these games.

      For anyone who doesn't know, the CAP games over Full Tilt have a cap of 40BB, which means everyone has effective stacks of 40BB. I find this pretty exciting, personally, since over FTP a lot of the SH PLO players are actually a lot tighter postflop than they are preflop. Therefore, I can easily outplay people out of pots and if I have a tight handrange, I can also capitalize on their errors they make playing too many hands preflop. Which translates to, as we Finns say it, easy money.

      I've been using 30-40 buyins (which is at CAP PL $1200-$1600 @ $40 per pop) as a base rule, is this reasonable? I haven't experienced a large downswing yet, which could be because of the smaller variance, or because I'm on a ridiculous hot streaks.
  • 7 replies
    • Glazenburg
      Glazenburg
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2008 Posts: 100
      My experience is that your style of play determines the variance a lot. If for example you chase your draws instead of raising them for value because you are most likely favorite. Chasing is offcourse not the best way to play PLO, but in the lower limits it still is profitable and reduces variance.

      Especially if your PLO skills aren't really pro, a more tight semi passive style of play might be a good way to learn the game and reduce variance..


      Grrtzz
    • Jim9137
      Jim9137
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2007 Posts: 5,608
      I generally play loose and fast PLO, so a gutshot with an overpair is close to nuts for me. :D I do understand the point about being semi-passive, as I actually play a style that varies between loose-agressive/passive and pure tight-aggressive in the cap games, depending on the table make up.

      The reason really is the fact that a lot of people at microlimits will call you with just about anything in the flop if you instantly toss out a continuation bet, which means that if they hit something, you might have hard time taking the pot away from them. If I notice that people are calling me loosely on the flop, I wait until I actually have a hand (or half of it). I also check a lot in multiwaypots and OOP with chronic checkraisers, before making a play at the turn when I'm more confident that no one has anything, or I actually hit a hand.

      The beauty of CAP PL games from this point of view is that you can't really afford to chase as much, and some players don't realize it. And those who do will just give the pot away, so the question just becomes who knows how to fold, and who doesn't. $17 pot with a $40 cap doesn't leave too many implied odds for straight or flush draws on the river.
    • Glazenburg
      Glazenburg
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2008 Posts: 100
      so the question just becomes who knows how to fold, and who doesn't. $17 pot with a $40 cap doesn't leave too many implied odds for straight or flush draws on the river.


      I think this my main source of income in PLO games right now. I did only read the book from Rolf on PLO until now, but there seems to be some half stack strategy. These guys cap their profits by not playing a full stack and almost always commit themselves in a preflop reraised hand or after having c-bet the flop.

      Because they are commited they overplay AAxx and KKxx very often and you can easily call them with two pair and other not nut hands.

      So I agree with you, people will underestimate how much they commit themselves with a c-bet or call having a 40BB stack and it's can be very profitable to play against these type of players.

      I remember Nazgul mentioning it in his video that short stacking PLO SH isn't the way to go, because your pre-flop edge is very often vaporized by a flop which doesn't connect with your hand.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      If you can supply your standard deviation (PTO->sessions->more detail) , an approximate win-rate and no.of hands played then I could calculate some rough BRM guidelines for you to mull over.

      How aggressive are the cap games PF?
    • Jim9137
      Jim9137
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2007 Posts: 5,608
      Very, or none at all. Depends on the table-makeup. I have seen some people 3bet hands like KT69 ds, but most of the time there is a single raise and lot of people calling that. Or I'm doing all the raising to build up a pot.

      People are either loose passive or loose aggressive up until CAP PL100 level, where I actually happened to even find a rock or two. A lot of gambling, a lot of loose plays (calling PSBs with just a pair of deuces etc) and so on forth, so I usually stick to TAG style.

      For the stats:

      8k hands, my win rate is around 12ptbb/100, and stdev is around 47ptbb/100.

      It's a small sample size, I know. :P
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,145
      • 23.12.2008, 17:20
      • This post has been edited 2 time(s), it was last edited by Kruppe: 23.12.2008 17:21.
      30-40 seems VERY little to me. I'd say70-80 BI is somewhat safe, maybe 100.
      variance is smaller BB-wise in cap, but bigger stacks-wise.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by Jim9137


      8k hands, my win rate is around 12ptbb/100, and stdev is around 47ptbb/100.

      It's a small sample size, I know. :P
      Subject to more assumptions than I care to mention: 95% Confidence interval for your Win_Rate is about 1.5PTBB-23PTBB/100. Your RoR is (amongst other factors) heavily dependent upon your WR .

      EG. 1.5ptBB/100 WR =>RoR for 30BI=44%

      3ptBB/100 WR =>RoR for 30BI=20%

      4.5ptBB/100 WR =>RoR for 30BI=9%