kukkiwonBG!

You are not right on this.

Poker can be considered as (and it is) stochastic process. By that it can be controled through the statistical process control tools.

Assume, that you are solid TAG player on NL. That gives you over big period of time expected outcome 10BB per 100 hands with stdev 100BB per 100 hands.

Assuming that the distribution is normal (ther is no reason why it should not be) the expected result after 100 hands is as follows, X is starting

You will finish X-90BB to X+110BB with probability 70%

You will finish X-190BB to X+210BB with probability 95.4%

You will finish X-290BB to X+310BB with probability 99.97%

Please see

Normal Distribution on wikipages.

[img]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/Standard_deviation_diagram.svg[/img]

The +-3stdev is considered as natural process regulation boundaries and in poker it could be used as stoploss indicator (e.g. for tilt).

You may be right, that it migh be possible loose more that 3BI in 100 hands, but the probability that this will happen is less than 0.15%!

When you moved outside the 3stdev it is

*must* stop your game and analyze what is wrong. Because you have just moved outside the

*natural* boundaries and the loss is by 99.85% caused by something else than natural variability in poker.

For farther understanding I would recommend

Statistical Process Control pages.

Regards

TTT