Feedback on variability and stats

    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      EDIT:

      Please have a look on my new stats later in the thread - 1/2 SH.
      3rd March 09

      TTT


      Hi!

      I am quite new to FL. Would you mind have a look on my income chart and stats and let me know it there is something odd?

      About 3k hands on FL FR 0.5/1

      Thanks

      TTT

      Chart



      Stats

  • 28 replies
    • Yoghi
      Yoghi
      Black
      Joined: 10.09.2007 Posts: 14,387
      It looks like you don't raise enough preflop, limp too much and don't defend your BB enough.

      Do you follow the charts?
    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      If you mean that 7 terrible tables, that I still do not know from top of my head ;) ), I am trying to...

      Still I believe that I am loosing on flop and post flop play

      Thanks for feedback, I will double check with tables and my with my stats.

      BTW about the variability - does it seems reasonable?

      Regards

      TTT
    • One12ver
      One12ver
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.05.2008 Posts: 249
      Not looking to bad, goood start to FL. With a little improvment you 'll be a consistant winner every month. Good luck and see you at the tables.
    • kukkiwonBG
      kukkiwonBG
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 4,494
      Yes I see what is wrong...
      You have only 3k hands there!
      There is absolutely no idea of looking of such a small sample size, especially when you know you need to improve your pre-flop play.

      Try to understand the charts and improve your game and you will be fine for sure :)

      Best regards,
      kukkiwonBG
    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      I know that we should be talking about 15k+ hands to see actual results. But my question here was if there is any obvious pattern that might be wrong...

      Someting like losing 3+ BI in 100 hands in NL if stdev for 100 hands is about 100 Big Blinds and anything that is above 3BI is not natural variablity but systemic issues - I would like to set up tools that are use for process control but I need to understand it more ;) .

      I do not have knowledge to recodnize these issues in FL.

      Regards

      TTT
    • kukkiwonBG
      kukkiwonBG
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 4,494
      If a standard deviation is to lose 3 BI in 100 hands there is no law that says you can not lose 100 BI in 100 hands, even if you play absolutely perfectly.
      The SD gives you only probabilities for some results and in 3k hands there is not much to be seen.

      Never the less I understand what you wanted to accomplish with this. :)

      I wish you next year to start playing limits that you never dream about and to be happy with you successes.

      Kukki
    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      kukkiwonBG!

      You are not right on this.

      Poker can be considered as (and it is) stochastic process. By that it can be controled through the statistical process control tools.

      Assume, that you are solid TAG player on NL. That gives you over big period of time expected outcome 10BB per 100 hands with stdev 100BB per 100 hands.

      Assuming that the distribution is normal (ther is no reason why it should not be) the expected result after 100 hands is as follows, X is starting

      You will finish X-90BB to X+110BB with probability 70%
      You will finish X-190BB to X+210BB with probability 95.4%
      You will finish X-290BB to X+310BB with probability 99.97%

      Please see Normal Distribution on wikipages.
      [img]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/Standard_deviation_diagram.svg[/img]
      The +-3stdev is considered as natural process regulation boundaries and in poker it could be used as stoploss indicator (e.g. for tilt).

      You may be right, that it migh be possible loose more that 3BI in 100 hands, but the probability that this will happen is less than 0.15%!

      When you moved outside the 3stdev it is must stop your game and analyze what is wrong. Because you have just moved outside the natural boundaries and the loss is by 99.85% caused by something else than natural variability in poker.

      For farther understanding I would recommend Statistical Process Control pages.

      Regards

      TTT
    • kukkiwonBG
      kukkiwonBG
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 4,494
      Futher understanding...

      ....wow...

      ...Thank for the help...


      Good luck with your FL project.

      Best regards,
      kukkiwonBG
    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      I played today a little with excel and put together something about variability... have a look at

      Something about variance and expected results

      TTT
    • ciRith
      ciRith
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      Nice post TTT241,

      could you do the same for FL as well? (Asuming 1BigBet (=2 BigBlinds)/100.)

      I don't know much about NL but 10BB/100 seem to be to much for me.
    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      Definetely I would do it.. unfortunately I did not find any information what might be normal standard deviation for FL...

      If you can extract something for me from your software...

      I did not find in either in Elephant or PokerTracke. In PokerOffice there is standard deviation per hour.

      TTT
    • kukkiwonBG
      kukkiwonBG
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 4,494
      15 BB/100 for FR and 17 BB/100 for SH

      Best regards,
      kukkiwonBG

      Edit: This is Big Bets :P
      Edit 2: This is average and from many huge sample sizes. (I don't know the limits of play) I don't play limit at all so I don't have my stats. :evil:
    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      Thanks, could we stick to 2Big Bets income per 100 hands or 1.5 will be more realistic?

      Can you give me the link to this data? I am very curious about it ;)

      TTT
    • ciRith
      ciRith
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      I tried to find this in PT2 but could find it. kukkiwonBG can you tell me where to find it?

      1BB/100 should be realisic. If you choose a higher winrate you may scare a lot people if they have swings which can't be normal by your calculation. :)
      Sure some will have 1,5-2BB/100 but I don't think that there are a lot of them.
    • opal99
      opal99
      Black
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,270
      Originally posted by ciRith
      I tried to find this in PT2 but could find it. kukkiwonBG can you tell me where to find it?
      I dont have PT2 anymore but it was in overview or in sessions in "more details" (or similar) ... I know I'm not very helpful, but it's 3am ;) Hope you can find it now.

      SD in SH is between 16-19 depending how aggressive/passive you're (17.1 was mine on 1/2 6 months ago) and much lower in FR: i remember something like 11 on 0.5/1. It depends very much on limit you play, because the more aggressive game the more swingy is outcome...

      Originally posted by ciRith
      Sure some will have 1,5-2BB/100 but I don't think that there are a lot of them.
      I WILL have sometimes :D I promise...
    • ciRith
      ciRith
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      Originally posted by opal99
      Originally posted by ciRith
      I tried to find this in PT2 but could find it. kukkiwonBG can you tell me where to find it?
      I dont have PT2 anymore but it was in overview or in sessions in "more details" (or similar) ... I know I'm not very helpful, but it's 3am ;) Hope you can find it now.

      SD in SH is between 16-19 depending how aggressive/passive you're (17.1 was mine on 1/2 6 months ago) and much lower in FR: i remember something like 11 on 0.5/1
      Ah found it. :D

      15,7BB/100 over 220k hands. :)
    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      Ok, hopefully I will put it together this evening or during this weekend latest.

      TTT
    • ciRith
      ciRith
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      Originally posted by TTT241
      Ok, hopefully I will put it together this evening or during this weekend latest.

      TTT
      Take your time. If you have fun doing this then you might do 3 different charts with 1, 1,5 and 2BB/100. This way everyone can look at the variance he think he should have. *g*
    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      I try to work on my game. Try to follow charts more precisly, use gold chart for steal/restal blinds and stop jerking after the flop (hopefully) :evil: , focus more on isolation raises and generally use more oponents stats .

      I did not played as many hands, but anyway would you ming have a look on my new stats?

      I think I might be to tight and probably should limp more hands that could be strong in multiway pots form EP/MP.

      TTT





    • 1
    • 2