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[NL2-NL10] Nl100 77

    • 2DHades
      Joined: 25.01.2008 Posts: 515
      Seat 1: CO ( $183.35 USD )
      Seat 2: BTN ( $121.95 USD )
      Seat 3: Hero ( $17.50 USD )
      Seat 4: BB ( $97.50 USD )
      Seat 6: UTG2 ( $87.80 USD ) 33/17 over 12 hands(donk)
      Seat 7: UTG3 ( $20.00 USD ) 18/0 over 11 hands(donk)
      Seat 8: MP1 ( $20.90 USD ) 9/6 over 254hands(seems like another SSS-er)
      Seat 9: MP2 ( $22.60 USD )
      Seat 10: MP3 ( $30.70 USD )
      Hero posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
      BB posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
      UTG3 posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
      ** Dealing down cards **
      Dealt to Hero [ 7h 7s ]
      UTG2 calls [$1.00 USD]
      UTG3 checks
      MP1 folds
      MP2 calls [$1.00 USD]
      MP3 folds
      CO folds
      BTN folds
      Hero raises [$17.00 USD]
      Is the push the best action here?
  • 6 replies
    • wuusaa
      Joined: 15.05.2007 Posts: 455
      yes it is i think

      but the Stats are crap.
      20 Hands mean nothing
    • 2DHades
      Joined: 25.01.2008 Posts: 515
      Originally posted by wuusaa
      yes it is i think

      but the Stats are crap.
      20 Hands mean nothing
      Yes, but it is enough to realise that the guys are donks.
    • wuusaa
      Joined: 15.05.2007 Posts: 455
      from xarry2's coaching thread!

      Adv SSS Coaching - 09/10

      Hi, took some time to make this review... had no internet
      I also just have defective HHs from last weekend due to the partypoker update. So I think I have to talk about something instead of reviewing hands from the session.

      How many hands do you set as "minimum" to reraise on stats?

      Rule of thumb1: the closer your decision gets the more hands you need
      Rule of thumb 2: the more infrequent the action underlying the considered stat is the more hands you need

      ad 1: Why should we play marginal hands where we aren't sure if the stats determining our action and EV are true at all?
      ad 2: e.g. restealing against an ATS of 25 over 500 Hands can still be wrong (or risky) if we actually just have 10 out of 40 steal situations for our opponent within these 500 Hands.
      This means stats like the VPIP or PFR become accurate pretty fast. ATS and fold BB to steal less faster. But 3bet% or c/r Turn% take many, many total hands to be halfway accurate. Thus you should always take into account which sample size stands behind the stat you want to use. (usually your tracker program can show you this, i.e. ATS 25% (10 out of 40 cases).

      from 0 to 30 Hands:
      you should almost never base your decision on the stats you get. it could mean anything. together with a read you've picked up during these few hands you can judge your opponent though. if you've seen him limp/calling K4o or making a reraise with A3 you could say that he's either way too loose or in the 2nd case way to aggressive. but nevertheless if you have 32/25 stats from your aggressive opponent you can't assume his average PFR is 25. You can just assume that he's pretty agressive and put him on rather loose raising/reraising ranges if you play against him.
      Another possibility is to assume that your unknown opponent plays in average like the typical opponent on the limit you play. That's again very unprecise but better than having no reads at all. That's why I always try to find out some typical ranges/stat values for my current limit.

      from 30 to 100 Hands:
      you can now slowly use basic values like VPIP or PFR but again be aware of marginal situations where only precise stats guarantee profit. Again additional reads or typical values can help you.
      In addition I often try to peg my "half-known" opponents as typical opponent types I learned to know in the past through experience. Try too take a look at the stats and remember which actions/plays are more likely for this type than others. Especially when the values are extreme (either very passive like 9/5 or 38/4 or 46/33 even less hands say more since its less probable that they are due to coincidence.

      from 100 to 500 Hands:
      VPIP and PFR are now usually halfway accurate and you have like +/-5% variance. however I start making plays with like 5% edge. again my decisions are strengthened by reads and notes.

      from 500 to 1000 Hands:
      VPIP and PFR now usually only have like +/-1-2% variance and I make closer reraises or calls against reraises. Usually ATS/foldBBtosteal also get halfway accurate now. But as I said before its always important to consider the actual samplesize you have for your stat. c/r Flop or aggression factor are even unsecure but can be used as a help in many semi-close situations.

      1000+ Hands:
      most basic values are now pretty realistic, nevertheless we have some variance. Plays where like only 1% or less edge determines the outcome shouldn't be made though. thats just risking to much.
      For doing that I really like to have like 5k+ hands. That's why I recommend to every shortstackstrategy player to use a datamining software or regularly download mined hands for the limits you play. Especially for SSS stats are of vital importance and we basically can never have enough, unless our computer or software dislikes them...
    • 2DHades
      Joined: 25.01.2008 Posts: 515
      Thanks for that material!
      I just put the 'stats' in addition to my statement that said they was playing really donkish.
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Even w/o any stats that's an insta push for me. There's no point in raising OOP and with decreased stack as well as it isn't as profitable to call for set value(small stack, small profit), so it's the best to take the pot down right away preflop.

      Besides, tight players will fold here and loose players will call you with a worse/coinflip hands. Only simetimes you will find someone calling you with misplayed AA/KK.
    • IngolPoker
      Joined: 05.09.2006 Posts: 10,484
      please convert the hand