Defining a losing reg

    • StruxXx
      StruxXx
      Basic
      Joined: 18.12.2015 Posts: 72
      I bet we've all come across on this type of players. His stats are normal, nothing extraordinary. 19/17 with 5-9% of 3bet and 50-70 Ft3Bet. I usually dont pay much attention to them and I play my usual poker against them. But yesterday I've noticed something shocking. One player with decent reg stats had loss of 39$ on NL5 with 1,5k hand history... On the other table there was another with with similar loss in even less hands, and on the other table I saw a guy with 63$ loss in less then 1k hands... All this players had NORMAL, and by normal I mean reg type stats.
      Now my racionalisation of their score was - they are really bad regs that call too often, or bet too often or maybe my hand history was too old? (since I'd stopped playing for couple of months last year).

      Do you put any marks / notes on those type of "regs"? Winning / losing reg?
      How old database should I use to make sure I got an accurate data since we all, as a players change from time to time. Some players tend to progress, some keep staying on the same level of game and some even get worse o.O
  • 4 replies
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 5,327
      That is nothing.. 8 buy-in swing at 1.5k hands is very much possible and has happened to me quite a few times during last 100k hands.
      Someone can have a 10k hand downswing and still be a winning player overall. You must also remember that those 1.5k hands are the only ones you have seen. Maybe he has won some hands that you haven't seen and is on profit in reality.

      That how much villain has been losing/winning lately is nice to know but I wouldn't tag anyone just because of that. To get someones true winrate we need at least 100k hand sample.

      I don't know how old databases you should use. If someone has fold to 3bet of 90% and he suddenly starts defending vs your 3bets, you will notice it and can make a note. I wouldn't worry about this if you haven't played vs some villain regularly for a long time. If I had to take a guess I would say that good players that are working on their game will make noticeable progress in 3 to 6 months. Depending on player and limit you are playing.
    • arthurbentley
      arthurbentley
      Silver
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 234
      I dropped 9 buy-ins in the space of 800 hands during one particular nasty session of coolers, set ups and suck outs. I didn't spew or tilt it off either. It was just variance because I have played over 300k hands of cash game, at 2NL and 4NL, and have a decent win rate. I don't use a HUD either.
    • StruxXx
      StruxXx
      Basic
      Joined: 18.12.2015 Posts: 72
      Originally posted by la55i
      That is nothing.. 8 buy-in swing at 1.5k hands is very much possible and has happened to me quite a few times during last 100k hands.
      Someone can have a 10k hand downswing and still be a winning player overall. You must also remember that those 1.5k hands are the only ones you have seen. Maybe he has won some hands that you haven't seen and is on profit in reality.

      I can definitely agree with that.
      Thanks for reply, I appreciate it
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,086
      Even losing regs take comfort in that there are swings. Lifelong in some cases. So, yes, there are losing regs, and if you have somewhat more substantial stats, then they may actually be bad. Not just permanently unlucky.