need some advice with this EV graph and variation

    • imphat
      imphat
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.11.2008 Posts: 5
      Hello,

      I've started playing just recently and after a couple of weeks running ok on NL10 and NL25 my winnings started showing a lot of variance and i ended up tied on the past 2 weeks.

      Not happy with the results I'm getting I decided to try a program called allinCalc (v0.96b), that runs over PT3 databases and calculates how off of the average luck you are. Here are my stats/graph for the last couple days:


      found 466 headsup allin situations
      won: 206 lost: 225 tied: 35
      average potsize: 3,97$
      average ev: 0,5271
      money won: 868,20$
      money expected (based on allin equity): 972,75$
      money difference: -104,55$
      max money diff: 2009-01-02 03:47:20 at +5,01$
      min money diff: 2009-01-03 20:31:28 at -122,18$





      what I'd like to know is how normal is this. According to allinCalc I should have won 104,55 usd more than I did on headsup allins, right?

      this data was collect on about 17k NL10 hands, so, help me if I'm wrong, but it means that I am 52 buyins (im playing shortstack) below of what I should be right now. Isn't 52 buyins like... a lot?

      I know that 17k hands is far from what is needed to soften variation down, but still, isn't 52 stacks a lot of variation on my case? any thoughts?

      for these 17k hands I'm 56 usd negative btw...
  • 9 replies
    • fun101rockets
      fun101rockets
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2008 Posts: 1,162
      that is alot of variation. Whatever keep playing solid SSS (I think) and you will make a profit eventually
    • imphat
      imphat
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.11.2008 Posts: 5
      ya.. tell me about it..
      anyway, what I'd like to know is if my game right now is really profitable or not.

      The thing is, I'm down 28 buyins right now, which is a lot imo, but according to allinCalc it seems to be a real bad run only...

      Should I remake my game from scratch or just trust that this bad luck phase will run out eventually?
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Try Poker EV and see if the results tally.

      Do you play at FT?
    • imphat
      imphat
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.11.2008 Posts: 5
      pokerEV does not work with PT3.. unfortunately ;/

      I'm playing mostly at PokerStars, should it make any difference?
    • SoyCD
      SoyCD
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 6,356
      Hello imphat,

      Well if you are running that much lower in all-in Equity one thing is sure: You are getting your money in while ahead - but losing none-the-less. You are therefore currently experiencing the negative side of variance (aka pretty much a downswing).

      The thing is that even if you had been winning all the hands according to equity your overall graph would just be break-even.

      Whether you have other leaks in your game- such as playing too loose or too tight - or whether your postflop game is good- can only be found through other means such as hand evaluations or recording of your sessions.

      I would suggest posting more hands and getting more involved in strategy discussions. Generally though- bad phases happen - and you simply have to weather them out.

      Best regards
      SoyCD
    • lennert9
      lennert9
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.10.2008 Posts: 278
      Originally posted by SoyCD


      The thing is that even if you had been winning all the hands according to equity your overall graph would just be break-even.


      actually he would be 24 buy ins up. In his first post he states to be 52 buy ins down(in comparison to his EV), but in total only 56$ down = 28 buy ins.
    • imphat
      imphat
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.11.2008 Posts: 5
      thanks a lot soy... like you said, I did noticed that, even if i was playing with even EV i wouldnt be too much up thats true...


      I've played another 5k hands and got a bit of the money back.. now I'm tied over 22k hands, and allinCalc says I should be 95 USD up with even EV..

      That means I'd be +95 over 22k hands, whats roughly 2.15 big bets / 100 hands.


      So, like you said it yourself, if my game improves to like 4 or 5 BB/100 I'll definitely see profit even on a downswing right?

      I'll try to post some of my hands later for advice, thanks everyone for replying :)
    • Grimzor
      Grimzor
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 421
      Originally posted by imphat
      So, like you said it yourself, if my game improves to like 4 or 5 BB/100 I'll definitely see profit even on a downswing right?
      That is just not true. The higher your winrate the harder non-luck moments you can cope with while staying in profit zone. But downswings are different in length and how hard they hit so you are NEVER guaranteed profit. There might come swings which can kill even highest winners` profits and make them loose money.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by imphat
      pokerEV does not work with PT3.. unfortunately ;/

      I'm playing mostly at PokerStars, should it make any difference?
      You could re-import your HH's into a PokerEV compliant dB.

      I know that when pokerEV got up and running there were some issues with some graphs from certain sites. If you play at Stars though I doubt anything like this could be at issue here.

      Your graph seems to have such a steady downward trend . Is this your whole sample or just since when you started going down in luck ( suffered -ve side of variance)?

      I know absolutely nothing of allincalc but your quote mentions "money won". If it actually refers to "money won after rake" and compares this to All-in_Equity then your steady downward slope would look pretty flat.

      The odd bad beat at NL25 could also skew things a bit. It might be worth measuring your luck in terms of BB's as this will produce a more representative graph.