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Guess courtiebee's hand and get rewarded!

  • Poll
    • Was she bluffing?

      • 8
        No, never!
      • 5
        For sure!
      Total: 13 Votes
    • KTU
      Joined: 24.01.2007 Posts: 6,488
      Guess courtiebee's hand and get rewarded!

      Hey guys,

      What is courtiebee (Who is that?) holding here? If you think you know, then have a go at our little promotion. Maybe Courtney will give you some hints during her stream on the 27th :) Just guess her hand in this thread!

      To be won
      • correct hand & correct suits: Status +2 Upgrade (for one month)
      • correct hand: Satus Upgrade (for one month)

      + Diamond Status for the best analysis of this situation

      Results will be published Tuesday the 28th June

      The hand - She bet the flop, checked the turn and fires the river again

      MP1: t90782 M = 28.82
      MP2: t39228 M = 12.45
      CO: t31487 M = 10.00
      BTN: t43284 M = 13.74
      SB: t85109 M = 27.02
      BB: t44082 M = 13.99
      courtiebee (UTG): t29349 M = 9.32
      UTG+1: t20782 M = 6.60
      UTG+2: t21044 M = 6.68

      Pre Flop: (t3150) Hero is UTG with :censored:
      courtiebee raises to t2558, 3 folds, MP2 calls t2558, 4 folds

      Flop: (t8266) T:spade: J:heart: 7:heart: (2 players)
      courtiebee bets t4133, MP2 calls t4133

      Turn: (t16532) T:club: (2 players)
      courtiebee checks, MP2 checks

      River: (t16532) 6:diamond: (2 players)
      courtiebee bets t8266, MP2 calls t8266

  • 20 replies
    • rompas
      Joined: 12.02.2014 Posts: 3,229
      who will go ahead and make the first guess? :f_wink:
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 22,027
      :Kh: :Kd:
    • rompas
      Joined: 12.02.2014 Posts: 3,229
      nobody wants to win? :f_ugly:
    • siuranger
      Joined: 10.08.2007 Posts: 7
      ATs of hearts
    • henkhenkenst
      Joined: 09.07.2015 Posts: 5
    • Alexdis73
      Joined: 22.06.2016 Posts: 1
    • AxwellM8
      Joined: 27.06.2016 Posts: 1
      Ah Kh
    • metalmonkey80
      Joined: 15.08.2013 Posts: 2,218
    • igniter
      Joined: 27.06.2016 Posts: 1
      When courtie raises UTG this late in the tournament she reps something like:
      {44+, A8s+, ATo+, QTs+, QJo+, K9s+, KJo+} along with some suited connectors every now and then.

      She could lead the flop with pretty much any two hearts, a set for protection on a fairly wet board, a J or 2 pair, or a T with backdoor spades and potential other draws and of course overpairs. Our range now is:
      {77, TT++, KQs, KJ/QJ/JT, Axs (hearts or spades) }. T7s or T8s and other smaller SC-type hands are unlikely here because of the UTG open.

      After villain calls the half pot bet, courtie opts to check the turn. Villain can be calling with a heart draw, a T, or a J here. Thus, when courtie checks the turn, she has either improved dramatically or is attempting to pot control versus the occasional T in villain's range. However, if she had an overpair here like KK/AA, two pair, or top pair with a strong kicker, she would definitely bet to force a flush/straight draw to pay and/or get value off of a J. She knows that villain does not have many Ts in this position and therefore the check is either a strong hand or with intention of check-calling a bet w/ a draw, or just giving up on an Ax/missed backdoors and small draws to a big bet. She probably bets most of her higher J hands as well, although she may pot control this as she only really beats draws with KJ/QJ now.
      {77, TT, JJ, KQ hearts, maybe KJ/QJ, Ax (hearts and A of spades)}

      The turn changes essentially nothing for courtie, so after villain checks behind the turn, she knows he missed a lot of his draws. He would most likely bet a T on the turn so she knows he probably is not holding a Tx hand. She would assume that he bets a J for value so I do not think she puts villain on a strong J. She might put him on a pair like 88/99. He could also have slowplayed a monster but that is a but less likely. Thus, when she bets, she is either better a monster for value against a smaller hand, or trying to push villain off a mid pair type hand with a busted draw. She probably checks smaller jacks or pairs.

      My best guess here is that she fires on Axs (hearts)/KQs (hearts) or 77/TT (with TT being way less likely obvs). Since someone already said KQ^, let's go with 77 (spade, heart?) (Also, I just do not think she checks turn that often with something like KQ of hearts, so many outs, so I feel she is usually much stronger or weaker here).
    • HeyWatchitt
      Joined: 09.04.2016 Posts: 1
      Opening range preflop:
      77+, AQo+,JTs+,T9s,98s...maybe J9s and also A5s if she was Doug Polk

      after the flop:

      I do think she bets trips, the board is not that scary yet.

      Value: Any J, Two pair or Overpair: 77 JJ TT QQ KK AA JTs QJs KJs AJs (J9s) 98s

      Semibluff: any Overcards/OESD/FD/combo : KQs AKo AKs AQs AQo 99 88 Th9h

      Check: T9s TQs KTs ATs

      77 JJ TT QQ KK AA JTs QJs KJs AJs (J9s) KQs AKo AKs AQs AQo 99 88 Th9h

      After the turn:

      what Value/Semibluff hands just became nuts or middle of the pack

      Monster: JJ 77 JT are now a full house TT are absolute nuts, still have the strait with 98s
      Medium hands: top pairs, could be beat by any T now, and a middle pair can call the flop bet for 3:1 when still that deep

      QJs KJs AJs (J9s)

      I think she bets the combo draws again QhKh QhAh KhAh
      the rest Im not sure about ( would love feedback on what is good/bad play here I am really confused)

      JJ 77 JT TT 98s Th9h for trapping
      KQs AKo AKs AQo 99 88 QQ KK AA QJs KJs AJs (J9s)

      MP3 checked behind so maybe he didnt hit his trips

      she can bet

      for value: JJ 77 JT TT 98s Th9h, maybe QQ KK AA AJs

      bluffs: KQs AKo AKs AQo 99 88

      medium hands: QJs KJs

      I think she is not bluffing here, really scary spot for AJ here, basically a bluffcatcher. Fold. (#foldpre /r/pokercirclejerk)

      I bet there are many mistakes in this, please feel free to point out the most obvious ones. My guess for her hand is

    • Nurlanbai
      Joined: 01.02.2015 Posts: 1
    • ElDiablo648
      Joined: 23.12.2013 Posts: 1
      KT easy
    • niekadanelaimiu
      Joined: 06.10.2010 Posts: 8
      Kh Kc
    • pluto7
      Joined: 24.10.2012 Posts: 80
      Sad, that we don't know anything about villain. She could have AK,AQ,AJ,AT,JJ,TT,77,99,88,KQ,AA,KK and QQ.
      As played I don't think she has AK,AQ,88,99,KQ on this board. As said to often called on this board texture on the river for a bluff. Maybe AJ, but blocked by villain and less likely, but possible. Also possible AhTh.
      Maybe 77, JJ or TT. But would she stop betting on such a turn card on that board texture? Maybe, we don't know, because we don't know anything about this villain. AA,KK and QQ possible.
      I say KhKc.
    • M1rCea
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 974
      Going for the old AA with no flushdraw blockers, soo let's say AdAc.

      As for reasoning, flop pretty straightforward value bet, although we can check sometimes because flop hits MP range pretty well, he has JJ, TT easily preflop.
      turn hits villain's range better than ours so we have to check quite a bit of our range on this turn. Doing this with AA makes sense because we block AJ that may call us down so less likely he has that, we don't block his bluffs, like KQs, FD's so it's more likely he has those, and AA doesn't need much protection on this board so a checkback wouldn't be that harmful for our hand.

      River: easy value bet, we're only behind slowplayed FH/Quads which should be pretty rare.

      there u go with some strat talk
      peace out
    • JustinDejong
      Joined: 08.11.2006 Posts: 713
      i ll go with 66
    • pianist8716
      Joined: 12.01.2014 Posts: 199
      :Ah: :Th:
    • CRStals
      Joined: 28.06.2016 Posts: 1
      I think it's A7h.
    • KTU
      Joined: 24.01.2007 Posts: 6,488
      And the winner is ...

      She had :Qc: :Qs: and therefore the winners is:
      Congratulations you had the precise read and that is rewarded with Silver status!

      The diamond status for the best analysis was very hard as everyone did a great job. Thank you so much guys!
      The winner here is M1rCea. Congratulations and have fun with our Diamond status!

      I think one of the main points of checking the turn and betting the river again is that it is the only way to get payoff from pairs like 88,99 and is unlikely to get a three street payoff from hands like KJs as we are openraising from UTG and will be perceived quite strong. So I think it is a good decision to go for two valuebets and make it as easy as possible for our opponent to call us down. I think her line has the same EV against KJ, AJ as betting the flop but pairs are more likely to bluffcatch the river.
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