Maths Question

    • WildBeans
      WildBeans
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      Hi,
      I was wondering if someone could work an EV question out for me step by step so I can see exactly how it's done (I have some idea but I think I'm missing a couple of elements)...

      Say I raise with TT and I get reraised, I then call.
      The flop comes out 3 5 7 or something like that. Then I check and the villain goes all in, or I bet and the villain goes all in.

      If I make the assumption that he 3 bets JJ+ AKo AKs, and that he'll go all in on this flop with all of those, then what is my EVcall?
      The way I'm thinking about this is that he has 24 hands that are already beating me, and 16 hands that I'm beating. I don't really know where to go from here. Maybe if we start with 1500 stack each and then say my first bet was 60, he reraises me to 180. I call, then bet on the flop 360 and he goes all in. for his remaining 1220.
      Then I could imagine the calculation going along the lines of :
      2/5 times I have better hand, but I will still only win 70% of the time. 3/5 times he has better hand and I lose around 90% of the time.

      But I'm uncertain how exactly to express that.

      How am I doing?
  • 7 replies
    • grummeler
      grummeler
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 2,237
      download
      pokerstove
      install pokerstove
      this is a wonderfull programm !
      you can type in you hand (T T)
      and the flop and thwe handrange your opponent has.

      then you get an exact equity number.

      then you just have to compare this to the pot odds :)

      this is really a wonderfull helping programm
    • WildBeans
      WildBeans
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      I actually do have pokerstove and use it all the time :) . that's why I opened this thread. Just because I want to see how it gets those equity values.
    • cindy1985
      cindy1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2007 Posts: 358
      Say you're calculating your EV from the flop

      - 1st step:give him a range = {JJ+, AK}
      - 2nd step: use pokerstove to get your equity

      Board: 3c 5d 7h
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 34.682% 33.88% 00.80% 80493 1911.00 { TT }
      Hand 1: 65.318% 64.51% 00.80% 153285 1911.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

      - 3rd step: summarize the situation
      Pot size on the flop: pot = 180*2+blinds(say 15)+360(your bet)*2= 1095
      You have to call: bet = 1220-360 = 860

      -4th step = compute the EV of your options:
      EVfold = 0
      EVcall = equity*(pot+bet) - (1-equity)*bet
      = 0.34 * (1095+860) - 0.66*860 = 97.1


      Here you go.

      Cheers
    • cindy1985
      cindy1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2007 Posts: 358
      ok, I guess you don't want to use pokerstove.

      So lets break down the combinations:

      - against JJ+, you have two outs, so you have ~10% equity on the flop. This is 24 combinations in his range
      - against AK, he has 6 outs against you, ~25% equity on the flop. This is 16 combinations of his range.

      So your equity on the flop is as follow: equity = 24/40*0.1+16/40*0.75 = 0.35

      You finish like in my previous post inserting this value instead of the pokerstove values.

      Advnatage of making these calculation yourself: you can weight his range. Say you know he is keen to fold AK if he miss, except in like 10% of the time. Then your equity becomes:

      equity = 24/(24+0.1*16)*0.1+0.1*16/(24+0.1*16)*0.75=0.14

      Well at least I calculate it this way :)

      Cheers
    • WildBeans
      WildBeans
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      Great thanks a million that's a very helpful reply.

      Just to query your last calculation where you think he would have folded in about 90% of the cases where he has AK. It's a very interesting way of looking at it.. is that a common calculation? And how would you get that kind of a read on someone? (some kind of example..?)
    • cindy1985
      cindy1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2007 Posts: 358
      No it is not a common calculation. Common calculations are the ones done using pokerstove. Bu when I want to fully analyze a hand, I do it this way. In some cases it becomes way more complicated (say there are FDs on the board and there was no 3bet PF, then his range is real wide at that point).

      Concerning the 10%, as a rule of thumb, vs unknown, I include 5-10% of surprising play (like reraising you allin with AK). If you know your opponents, you might have noticed he likes to be agressive on low flops, then you can increase this percentage... and if he is the nit type of guy, you can reduce it.
    • grummeler
      grummeler
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 2,237
      and you should allways include a 10% chance that he is bluffing.
      thats a good rule :)
      noone bluffs less then 10% its a dan harrington rule and dan is allways right !