diary of an armchair quaterback

    • bkbart
      bkbart
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      Joined: 01.04.2007 Posts: 327
      I would like to take this opportunity to announce that I have a problem. I am a sports fanatic. I love to play and gamble (yes gamble) on any and all sports. I will mostly bet on basketball, football hockey and baseball in that order. I will take a stab at mixed martial arts, boxing, euro football and other random sports from time to time aswell.

      I am by no means a pro at sports wagers and do it mostly for entertainment. I dont bet too large but hopefully later on I will. I am going to try and build my roll similar to a poker roll with BR management and spending some time studying. I know it is very hard to have an edge on Vegas but I watch tonnes of sports and enjoy reading articles and injury reports and so on.

      So I will keep a running tab of my record, my br +/- and I will give thoughts about the reasoning behind my picks the night before. If any of you see something I am missing or a hot pick for me you can give me a heads up.
  • 30 replies
    • bkbart
      bkbart
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      Joined: 01.04.2007 Posts: 327
      The lines are not out yet but I am looking at a few


      NBA

      Portland@NJ - Take portland -5 or -6

      NJ is not good at home although better recently, they also just lost big to boston. Portland also just had a bad game against a surging philly team. Portland is a young up and coming team that will shake off this loss and look to have a nice bounce back game. The nets on the other hand have no chemistry and beyond Devin Harris no heart, tommorow will be just another game for them and they will let another one slip bye at home.


      NCAA Mens Basketball

      UConn @ St.Johns- I will pick St. Johns +10 or so


      so the big east is crazy this year with 10-12 solid teams. UConn is ranked #4 but St.Johns plays hard. St. Johns gave Notre Dame 1 or there 4 losses this year but then had a big let down vs. Pitt in there last game. I can give them a break there since Pitt is #1. UConn has been impressive to say the least will only one loss to georgetown. Yet UConn has had some close games against the better teams for ex.

      1/06 @ WVU W 61-55
      12/20 vs. GON W 88-83 OT
      12/04 @ BUF W 68-64
      11/21 vs. LU W 89-81


      St. Johns has a few bigs

      D.J. Kennedy G-F 6-6 210
      Anthony Mason Jr. F 6-7 210
      Sean Evans F 6-8 250
      Dele Coker F-C 6-10 260
      Phil Wait C 7-1 260
      Tomas Jasiulionis C 6-11 260

      hopefully these guys will be able to slow down the dominating bigs of UConn


      NHL Hockey

      Bruins@Islanders- taking bruins -1.5

      not much to say here I take the bruins to win by 2. The best in the east vs. one of the worst. Odds should be close to even.


      Coyotes@Canucks- nuks -1.5

      Roberto Luongo is coming back after injury. He is the backbone of the canucks and the best goalie in the league. I look for the canucks to get their captian a W in his return.



      So there my first picks all pending the lines of course.

      Portland minus a few points
      St. Johns plus 8 or more points
      Bruins to win by two
      Canucks to win by two
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
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      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      nice that you are not betting on NFL this weekend, maybe the closest game of the year this AFC championship.

      Good luck on those bets, I haven't seen basketball for a while but I guess NJ is not the same team without Jason Kidd.
    • bkbart
      bkbart
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      Joined: 01.04.2007 Posts: 327
      Originally posted by alejandrosh
      nice that you are not betting on NFL this weekend, maybe the closest game of the year this AFC championship.

      Good luck on those bets, I haven't seen basketball for a while but I guess NJ is not the same team without Jason Kidd.
      I was saving NFL for later but I am thinking along the same line as you. Right now it is Ravens +6 for me!!


      Also it looks like Blake suffered a separated shoulder in tonights game and Rudy Fernandez is out with a sore foot so no Point Gaurd. I will bail on the blazers most likely.
    • bkbart
      bkbart
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      Joined: 01.04.2007 Posts: 327
      NCAA MENS BASKETBALL

      Purdue@NWestern- taking Purdue -4.5

      Not much to say here Purdue is just a much better team. Lets look at some common opponents

      Wisco: Purdue beat them by 13, NWestern lost by 29

      Penn State: Purdue lost by 3, NWestern lost by 4 OK not so great but still.

      Purdue has also beat Davidson and Boston College and went to OT will Illinois and a very good Oklahoma team.

      North Western has beat Florida State and that is the only decent team they have a win against

      UConn@St. Johns- taking St. Johns +12.5

      See my reasoning ^^^

      NHL HOCKEY

      Boston @ NYI: Taking Boston -1.5 (-105)

      Boston doesnt lose against weak teams.

      Nashville @ Montreal: Taking Montreal -1.5 (+145)

      I wasnt going to take this game but the odds are good. Montreals home record is 14-4-4 and they are hot lately. Nashville struggles on the road 8-13-2.

      Phoenix@ Vancouver: Taking Van -1.5 (+145)

      I talked about this one ^^^^
      I am a little surprise it is not +170 but like I said Lulongo is coming back and also Phoenix is terrible on the road at 6-12-3. Vancouver isnt great at home but they are above .500 at 11-9-2.


      So that is it. I will pass on the Trailblazers since two good gaurds are injured.

      Purdue -4.5****This is going to be a winner
      St. Johns +12.5
      Boston -1.5 (-105)
      Montreal -1.5 (+145)
      Van -1.5 (+145)
    • bkbart
      bkbart
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      Joined: 01.04.2007 Posts: 327
      couple heart breakers today went 1-4 (-$15)

      Purdue won but not by enough
      st johns got by barely
      Bruins got scored on with 50 seconds left the other team had their golie pulled. Bruins won but only by 1
      Canadiens won by 1 in regulation again not enough
      Canucks just got owned




      Looking ahead to tomorrow

      We got nice games in the NBA tommorow

      I like the Pacers -4 or so vs. Raptors

      Granger is hot and Raptors have problems with superstar 3 players

      Pistons -4 at OK thunder the line is out for this right now.

      This seams way outa whack it almost feels like I trap. I think I will lock it in anyways. I know that the thunder just beat the jazz handily but the Jazz played terrible. Detroit is on a three game losing streak an they have not lost 4 in a row for 3 years. Im going detroit to put in a good game to end this ugly skid.

      Cavs -5 at home vs hornets

      Cavs dont lose at home and they often blow teams out. I take it.

      Bucks -2 at Sac

      I know these teams look to be headed in opposite directions but if Redd has a decent night it will be lights out for Sac who only has Kevin Martin to look to for offence.

      Magic at Lakers should be a wicked game. I will take the over if it is anything close to 190.

      NHL is not so good tommorow

      might take Phili on the road -1.5 over Florida for nice odds
      Also Blackhawks at home to beat the rangers if it is -130 or so


      Lets hope tomorrow is better than today
    • bkbart
      bkbart
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      Joined: 01.04.2007 Posts: 327
      Raptors were plus 4.5 so half a point to much for me to bet

      Pistons -4
      Cavs -5 (this went down to -3) so looks like I am against the public, could be a good
      Bucks -2 (this is now even) again against the public

      Lakers vs Magic over under is 214 so I wont touch that

      Flyers @ Panthers this game is basically a pickem Flyers are a slight dog. Panthers are hot right now but they have been off for 4 or 5 days so hopefully they stumble out of the gates. Philly is 2-0-1 in their past three vs. Florida. So Phili +105

      NYR @ Chicago Chi town is -165 so that is too low for me Ill take them -1.5 +175 instead. Keith is injured and that is big for Chicago since he is their leader in ice time and is plus 20 something. But Chicago is dominant at home.
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
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      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      Originally posted by bkbart
      I was saving NFL for later but I am thinking along the same line as you. Right now it is Ravens +6 for me!!
      interesting, pittsburgh is favorite by 5.5, which is higher than I tought it would be, I don't see ravens losing for more than a field goal very often.

      I still wouldn't bet against steelers on january :P , I think it will be a great game tho.
    • straddler71
      straddler71
      Global
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 516
      Originally posted by alejandrosh

      interesting, pittsburgh is favorite by 5.5, which is higher than I tought it would be, I don't see ravens losing for more than a field goal very often.

      I still wouldn't bet against steelers on january :P , I think it will be a great game tho.[/quote]Think +5.5 is just too much and Im going to have to side with the ravens. The game looks to be a close one too. I don't think there will be any long field goals or long pass plays. Looks low scoring. As we approach closer to game time I think the spread number will drop a bit. Also its going to be cold, windy and maybe snowing and who can say what the actual conditions will be for game time. It could be really bad.
    • bkbart
      bkbart
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      Joined: 01.04.2007 Posts: 327
      record is 4-6 (-$10)

      won the cavs, bucks and flyers

      lost blackhawks and pistons

      I just watched wake forest in NCAA mens and I think I will be betting on them the rest of the season. They look unstopable.


      Anyways onto the picks for today


      NBA



      NO Hornets -2.5 @ Detroit- take NO

      Detroit has lost four in a row, last night a 10 point loss to the leagues worst OKC Thunder. Things will not get easier today vs NO Hornets.
      Hornets have had a tough time vs Detroit historically and are on a little bit of a downswing lately but Detroit is just ugly right now.

      Phili -2 @ Knicks - take PHI

      Phili has 5 or 6 wins in a row some of them against good teams. Knicks can play good from time to time but usually turn in a lackluster performance. Phili has also won 8 of the last 10 vs knicks.

      Bucks-3 @ LA Clip- Go Bucks

      Clippers suck. Bucks have been good to me. Enough said


      NHL


      Montreal -1.5 (+210) @ Ottawa

      Ottawa is weak and shitty. Montreal is hot and +210 is great value.

      Panthers @ Lightning (pickem)

      Panthers are hot lightning are anything but. Panthers are good in shootout Lightning are not. Tampa best player Lecavalier is distracted by trade rumors.

      NFL

      Phili Eagles@ Arizona Cards

      I am going to wait till tonight to lock this in but I will take the Cardinals plus the 3.5 points.


      Baltimore@Pitt

      This may be a stunner I am going Baltimore flat out for +210 odds. I cant believe Baltimore is a 2-1 dog. There defence is amazing and Ray Lewis is playing like a 20 year old. I think Big Ben will get knocked on his ass early and often. As long as Flacko can hold on to the ball Baltimore defence will get the job done.
    • cannell555
      cannell555
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      Joined: 06.03.2008 Posts: 2,410
      Hi bkbart,

      Are you a +EV sports bettor? I don't understand some of the wording you are using, I guess they are american betting terms.

      I am a pro gambler ;) So thought i'd give you a few tips. Obviously you hve your own way of doing things, but I don't think its the best way tbh.

      I think you tip far to many selections (there is weeks I only place 4-5 bets). Simply because every bet has to be +EV, to be in maximum profit.

      For instance, don't make a bet just because you think it will win. Only EVER bet when you think the bookies have the pricing wrong.

      For the quantity of picks you make, you will need a 1000 stake BRM rule, atleast. Whereas if you go for overpriced bets only (as I do), you can use a 100 stakes BRM (just about).

      Just to compare, I read sports articles for about 4-5 hours a day, solid. 7 days a week, and the most bets I place in a week is at maximum 10ish. If theres a big tournament of somesort in the near future, I can spend alot longer reading, and digging for info.

      Even if I think the selection will loose, I back it if its overpriced. Just remember every selection should be a +EV decision, and be over priced.

      Regards,
      Stiev
    • bkbart
      bkbart
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2007 Posts: 327
      hey cannell.

      Thanks for your interest. I am NOT +ive as a sports better. I am in no way a pro and I do not want to spend upwards of 4 hours aday reading. I do however follow the leagues, and have been for 15 years, that I bet on.

      I know I bet way too many games but it is more of an entertainment thing.

      That being said I am willing to get better and would like as much input as possible. Your comments have been considered and I would be willing to decrease my volume to a certain extent.

      One question for you. How do you determine if the bookies have the pricing wrong? and what do you mean by an overpriced bet? I have allready learned not to bet with the team you think/want to win and I only bet when I think the line is off. I am not sure how anyone would ever KNOW that a line is off.

      I have heard of the arbitrage system where you find two different sets of odds and bet both side in order to lock in a profit. Is this similar to what you mean by an overpriced bet? Do you find a book that has a different set of odds and bet there?

      O ya the wording thing, ya I use american odds. +200 would be the same as 2-1. -110 would be like 9-10
    • bkbart
      bkbart
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      Joined: 01.04.2007 Posts: 327
      I ended up betting Arizona against the spread and Baltimore outright in football.

      NBA

      SA spurs -5 @ Charlotte

      Spurs own Charlotte and are coming off a win at chicago. Charlotte is playing better lately but they just made a trade and lost one of its key offensive players.


      Phx suns +8 @ Boston

      I will take the suns +8 against anyone. Boston wins alot of its game by shutting the other team down. They might be able to slow the suns down but you cant stop them.

      Cle +5 @ LA lakers

      Wow what a matchup... The cavs have won the last 5 meeting against the lakers and are coming off a win against a strong NO hornets team and beat down the powerfull celts a week ago. Lakers are desperate with 2 losses in a row and kobe is a killer in prime time, but the cavs have a killer too, Lebron. I think this is a really close game and most likely will come down to the last shot. I could be safe and take cavs+5 but I am going to take the value instead and take the cavs on the moneyline +180 (1.8-1)


      NCAA hoops

      Syracuse -9 @ Pitt

      Surprise Surprise another great big east game.

      Syracuse just killed a good ND team and Pitt just lost to Louisville for their first loss. I like Pitt but not buy 9. Taking the orange to cover

      NHL

      Caps @ Islanders

      Not much to say here just look at the records to figure why I am going Caps -1.5 goals (+105)

      Min @ CHi

      Chicago is 14-2-5 at home. Min is 9-11 on the road. I will take Chicago -1.5 goals (+145)


      I am going against cannells advice here and doing big volume.... but hey it is MLK day and there is just too much on the plate
    • cannell555
      cannell555
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      Joined: 06.03.2008 Posts: 2,410
      Hi,

      I will walk you through how I decide whether to place a bet or not, and the definition of an overpriced bet. For this I will use the Liverpool Vs Everton football game which takes place tonight.

      1: Before doing any revision or reading, I think what odds would be fair imo.

      Example, I think the odds should be Liverpool 4/5, the draw 12/5 and an Everton win 13/5.

      2: I then read up about any injuries that the teams have, and look at how the teams are placed in the league, and how well they are playing at the moment.

      3: I then change the expected odds to what I think is fair. In this case nothing I have read has changed my mind.

      4: I now look at several bookmakers, and find the best prices they are offering. In this case they are Liverpool 8/13, the draw 12/5, and Everton 11/2.

      So imo Everton are hugely over priced here, from what I believe to be correct.

      5: So now I have to think is their value in any of these prices? IMO, Yes. In the long run, Everton will win you monney in this situation. So its a good value bet.

      6: I know place my bet on Everton. Although i'm a huge Liverpool fan, and I think Liverpool will win.

      People ask how I can bet against my own side, but them guys loose £££'s on betting on what they "think/hope" will happen.

      You never actually KNOW a price is wrong or over priced. If you watch any horse racing or sports betting programs, they all say "imo its overpriced" or "I think their is value on this team".

      Just like poker, to be a +EV player, you need to have an edge. It's not often you can have such an edge over a bookmaker, which is why we should only back on over priced outcomes.

      The arbitage system is hard work, for little profit alot of the time. It consists of only double dutching your bets, and its not often you can place bets using this system.

      Sry for such a long post!

      Regards,
      Stiev
    • bkbart
      bkbart
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      Joined: 01.04.2007 Posts: 327
      Thanks cannell and I like the long post. I do a similar process although not as intensive I am sure. I also only have one online book (betroyal.com). If I ever build up a substantial Bankroll maybe I will look at moving some of it around. I have a friend who has a website that gives you all the lines for a bunch of online books, I must look into this.
    • zloVkvetinaci
      zloVkvetinaci
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      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 155
      hi

      I dont know anything about betting, but I've got a question: do different betting sites,(bookmakers or how are they called:) ) give different odds for the same match?

      my idea is following:
      -a match with binary result, ie 2 teams, one wins
      -bookmaker A gives odds 1:2 and B gives odds 1:3
      -lets say a bet is 4 euro

      can I use also some kind of reverse odds? I mean in A, I bet 8 euro on second team to win 4?

      if yes, then can I:
      bet 8 euro in A on second team, so either I win 4 or loose 8
      bet 4 euro in B on first team, so either I win 12 or loose 4

      so if the first team wins, I loose 8 in A and gain 12 in B, thus +4
      if the second team wins, I win 4 in A and loose 4 in B, +0

      ..is this possible? can I be breakeven or in profit? is there some kind of "rake", ie money for the bookmaker?

      this probably wouldnt work, Im just curious :)
    • cannell555
      cannell555
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      Joined: 06.03.2008 Posts: 2,410
      Its not worth tryin to place bets like this. You can only do it once in a blue moon, and you'd have to bet 1000's to win very little (not to mention the time you'd have to spend). Not on Footy though, as theres always the draw ;)

      No bookmakers don't take any rake. Sites like Betfair do though.
    • bkbart
      bkbart
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      Joined: 01.04.2007 Posts: 327
      0-2 so far today. Both the spurs and caps won but not enough points X(
    • bkbart
      bkbart
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2007 Posts: 327
      ouch 0-5 today... and headed for 0-6 if Lebron and the cavs cant get it going in the second half. Its days like these that make me think that I should make a decision and do the opposite (the castanza theory).

      I dont see anything I like in the NBA tommorow. I am thinking about the following

      NCAA Bball

      Mich @ Penn State -3

      Looking at records and common opponents this looks like a close game. However Penn State does look a little more impressive. Add on the home court advantage and I like Penn State. The money line on this game is not out yet but if it is -130 I will take Penn.

      NHL (lines arent out yet)

      Caps @ Sens

      Ill take the Caps -150 or -1.5 (+130)

      Habs @ Thrashers

      Ill take the Habs -1.5 (+140)
    • straddler71
      straddler71
      Global
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 516

      NHL (lines arent out yet)

      Caps @ Sens

      Ill take the Caps -150 or -1.5 (+130)

      Habs @ Thrashers

      Ill take the Habs -1.5 (+140)
      Hey Bkbart.

      I really don't like playing the -1.5 with the NHL. Don't seem to have much luck with it. Games are so close nowadays with alot of games going to extra time. But they do pay out good and I suppose if you mix a few games together using the -1.5 you could get a good payout.

      Habs are a heavy favourite tonight the -1.5 seems to be the play. But I may just parlay a few money line games to get a better payout. On my book the caps are paying 2/1 with the -1.5. I don't like the caps tonight though. There playing on the road in back to back nights and this is there third game in the last four nights. Maybe a little sprinkle with the sens at plus money tonight. Sens have been playing okay lately looks like a close game.

      My strongest play of the night would be pittsburgh over carolina. Pittsburgh is at home. Carolina is also playing on back to back nights on the road, third time in four nights and fourth time in six nights. I generally look for these position plays late in the year as tiredness and fatigue is settling in on all the teams. Pittsburgh is currently paying 5/8 moneyline, not a good enough price for me. I don't know if you have this on your book but you can pick a team to win in normal time (end of third period) which pays a bit more then the normal moneyline. Currently its paying 1/1 even money and Im going to go with that. The -1.5 has Pittsburgh paying 17/10 good value there. Alot of the time when a team is in a good spot like Pittsburgh is tonight they win by more then a goal. So the -1.5 might be worth a look.

      The last time I made this kind of position play was a few weeks ago. Detroit was playing San Jose and San Jose was in the bad spot. Got a very good price with Detroit. Think the final score of that game was like 5-2. Detroit usually beats them anyway and score is always over, for future reference since they will probably play a few more times before the end of the year. Throw Pittsburgh in as one of your selections tonight, high chance that they will win tonight.

      Good Luck tonight.

      Matt.
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