This hand sums up one of the biggest dilemmas for every tourney poker player(Actual hand that I played):

Level 9 of a 10000 chips tourney blinds are 200-400, average stack around 14K my stack is 26K+ I'm currently 7th, still there are over 50 players left out of 120.

I'm on the button, get 88 everyone folds up to me, I raise x2.5 BB's, SB (stack of 36K+) calls BB folds.

Flop comes 2 4 7 no suited card - > SB raises 450, I figured he has something, but my pocket 8's should be good enough, I raise to 2,500, I prefer take this pot right now and not face a decision after a scary card comes on the turn. SB thinks for a minute and shoves

I analyze the situation: if he shoves at this point when the pot is only about 4000 chips it means that he wants to take this pot right now and doesn't want me to buy my outs on the turn or river, if he has a monster hand he would want me to stick around, so I ruled out 77, 44, 22, I also ruled out 2 pairs at this stage because with none of the 2 4 7 combinations he would have called my pre-flop raise.

So I figured he has a 7 with a high kicker, which give my hand a huge statistical advantage - I should be approximately 70%+ favorite. - I called

Turned out my analysis was perfect - he had A7o.

As it happens I was "punished" for my "well played" analysis and the turn came an A and I was out of the tourney.

Now here comes the dilemma : At the point of the big decision I still got around 23000 chips left and should I have not call the all in I stood a fair chance of running deep in the tourney since I consider myself a better player than most of the other players and I have enough chips to succeed.

The counter argument will be that mathematical speaking I made the right decision and in the long run I would be rewarded for my good plays.

Well, there are so many components that are involved in the "long run" argument that nothing is promising me that I'll get to the same opportunity again.

To be honest I think that if you have those opportunities you should make sure you make the most of it, trust your skills, and not risk your chances just because the math say so.

I think that "the long run" argument in poker is very tricky for us as human beings, - if you follow it you'll probably find yourself losing your confidence which is your most valuable asset in the tournament.

What do you think?