PLO8 downswing

    • zagarese
      zagarese
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2009 Posts: 39
      Hello

      I am in a huge downswing in PLO8 at .05/.10.

      For 28670 hands until 23 May this year I had a winrate of 23.36 BB/100.

      For 12499 hands since then I have had a winrate of -15.39 BB/100.

      Near that point there was a break in my play and some life variance. I'm trying to figure out if I am squeezing the stick too hard these days or if it's just normal variance. I have definitely felt the need to win and often the expectation I should win.

      I am looking for criticism or analysis of my analysis - am I thinking about this in the right way? Are my sample sizes appropriate? Etc.

      The first thing to note is that its tempting to look at the sets of hands before and after that point.
      I'm not willing to do that (yet) as I'm not willing to presuppose that I was playing well before and badly after although I often feel like that is the case.

      I am looking at my winning and losing hands as sets and what I do or don't do with those hands.
      Once I've figured that out I think I can compare that to before and after if I so choose.


      Holdem manager tells me this:

      When I win a hand I flop like this (hand count on left):

      Total Hands Flop Made Hand Value Flop Draw Value Bet Flop% bb/100
      778 2 Pair+ Weak/No Draw 89.97 55.4 2456.7
      560 Top Pair Weak Kicker or Worse Weak/No Draw 54.66 62.14 1459.75
      318 Top Pair Weak Kicker or Worse Good Draw 77.78 61.01 2938.81
      308 Unknown Weak/No Draw na na 199.77
      302 Top Pair Weak Kicker or Worse FD: 6 | SD: 6 60.96 62.25 1559.87
      231 Overpair Weak/No Draw 83.05 67.53 2274.03
      153 2 Pair+ FD: 6 | SD: 6 90.77 45.1 2129.22
      140 Top Pair Q+ Kicker Weak/No Draw 62.18 59.29 1548.36
      100 2 Pair+ FD: 10 | SD: 10 90.41 71 2596.8
      100 Top Pair Weak Kicker or Worse FD: 7 | SD: 7 60.24 59 1876
      83 2 Pair+ Good Draw 91.04 54.22 3032.89
      81 Overpair Good Draw 96.36 65.43 2245.93
      81 Top Pair Q+ Kicker FD: 6 | SD: 6 65 64.2 1904.69
      71 Top Pair Q+ Kicker Good Draw 91.23 56.34 2235.92
      70 Top Pair Weak Kicker or Worse FD: 9 | SD: 9 76.79 74.29 2945.86
      67 Overpair FD: 6 | SD: 6 79.25 58.21 2207.91
      36 2 Pair+ FD: 7 | SD: 7 100 55.56 2883.89
      24 Overpair FD: 7 | SD: 7 88.89 58.33 2131.25
      24 Top Pair Weak Kicker or Worse FD: 8 | SD: 8 76.19 50 1383.75
      18 Top Pair Q+ Kicker FD: 7 | SD: 7 78.57 72.22 2433.33
      11 Top Pair Weak Kicker or Worse FD: 10 | SD: 10 85.71 81.82 4979.09
      10 Top Pair Q+ Kicker FD: 9 | SD: 9 100 40 1488
      9 Overpair FD: 8 | SD: 8 100 55.56 3854.44
      5 2 Pair+ FD: 9 | SD: 9 75 60 3858
      3 Top Pair Q+ Kicker FD: 10 | SD: 10 100 66.67 703.33
      1 2 Pair+ FD: 8 | SD: 8 100 100 2340

      When I lose I flop like this:

      Win = .F. Flop Made Hand Value Flop Draw Value Bet Flop% bb/100
      2707 Top Pair Weak Kicker or Worse Weak/No Draw 13.36 14.11 -590.79
      886 Top Pair Weak Kicker or Worse FD: 6 | SD: 6 18.86 15.24 -629.1
      657 Overpair Weak/No Draw 27.09 20.09 -1042.62
      463 2 Pair+ Weak/No Draw 81.09 43.63 -1902.59
      449 Top Pair Weak Kicker or Worse Good Draw 36.15 28.95 -1215.84
      390 Top Pair Q+ Kicker Weak/No Draw 20.54 15.38 -887.77
      235 Unknown Weak/No Draw na na -376.04
      230 Top Pair Weak Kicker or Worse FD: 7 | SD: 7 27.1 17.83 -985.91
      164 Top Pair Q+ Kicker FD: 6 | SD: 6 25.89 17.68 -757.32
      140 Overpair FD: 6 | SD: 6 37.08 27.86 -974.79
      87 Overpair Good Draw 64.44 39.08 -2372.3
      77 2 Pair+ FD: 6 | SD: 6 68 55.84 -1808.96
      65 Top Pair Weak Kicker or Worse FD: 9 | SD: 9 46.34 36.92 -1454.92
      62 Top Pair Q+ Kicker Good Draw 65.96 48.39 -2467.42
      40 Top Pair Weak Kicker or Worse FD: 8 | SD: 8 40 32.5 -1361.5
      36 2 Pair+ Good Draw 86.96 72.22 -1933.06
      36 2 Pair+ FD: 10 | SD: 10 86.36 63.89 -2411.94
      27 2 Pair+ FD: 7 | SD: 7 73.68 37.04 -2385.19
      26 Overpair FD: 7 | SD: 7 29.41 15.38 -920.77
      22 Top Pair Q+ Kicker FD: 7 | SD: 7 50 31.82 -992.27
      12 Top Pair Weak Kicker or Worse FD: 10 | SD: 10 60 33.33 -1973.33
      4 Top Pair Q+ Kicker FD: 9 | SD: 9 100 50 -1632.5
      2 2 Pair+ FD: 9 | SD: 9 50 100 -5875
      1 Top Pair Q+ Kicker FD: 10 | SD: 10 0 0 -950
      1 Overpair FD: 9 | SD: 9 0 0 -3220


      Unfortunately I don't see a way to understand PLO8 low draws as part of your equity in these hands.

      But it seems like I'm crushing myself with one pair hands (top pair or overpair).

      Does this seem like a good starting point?

      I'd be inclined to look at these groups before and after the 'swing point' to see if I've started overplaying those top pair hands and did not before?

      Also the same hand groupings in various positions. I'd be concerned my sample sizes would be too small when I look at that.


      Any comments/criticism welcome.

      Thank you.
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