[NL2-NL10] Nl100 QQ

    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      saw flop

      MP3 ($40.35)
      CO ($26.70)
      Button ($100)
      SB ($91.35)
      BB ($12.25)
      UTG ($102.80)
      UTG+1 ($186.15)
      MP1 ($98.35)
      Hero (MP2) ($20)

      Mp3 Stats:



      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, Q
      3 folds, Hero raises $3.50, MP3 raises $11, 4 folds Hero?


      Breakeven equity needed 41% but against a 2% 3bet range (AKs+,QQ+) I only have 31% so Easy Muck or shouldn't I ever fold QQ+ ??
  • 11 replies
    • mikelstwe
      mikelstwe
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.08.2008 Posts: 156
      This player looks fairly loose-passive, so I think his range here is Aks+/QQ+. I think a difficult but nevertheless profitable fold.

      In direction were you leaning towards?
    • Padde
      Padde
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.05.2006 Posts: 1,060
      i will never fold QQ from MP3 i think
      because i dont think those players reraise the best 2%.

      they probably like to coldcall Aces & Kings in these spots more.

      So, i could not fold here ^^
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      I know that I'm not good enough to fold QQ PF for 20BB's. If I was good enough though then I might advise you to muck your QQ here since villain seems a total nit when it comes to raising PF.
    • DeKuip
      DeKuip
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 10,966
      Looking at the amount of hands you'd think he's a regular, looking at his stacksize you'd think he's a fish...
      Anyway, his 3bet range seems pretty consistent over all the positions so I guess it's an easy fold here.

      May I ask why raising 3.5bb btw? :)

      And do you also have stats on him coldcalling raises?
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Given the stats, I'd say it's a muck, you calculated the equity yourself and 11k hands should be big enough sample. :)
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by DeKuip
      Looking at the amount of hands you'd think he's a regular, looking at his stacksize you'd think he's a fish...
      Anyway, his 3bet range seems pretty consistent over all the positions so I guess it's an easy fold here.

      May I ask why raising 3.5bb btw? :)

      And do you also have stats on him coldcalling raises?
      3.5bb = Pot = saving 0.5bb for the same effect and its easy on iPokah

      coldcal raises = CallOpen and my read is that he Calls more than he 3bets

      I mucked this one as I see 2% as AKs+,KK+ as the most likely range. including QQ doesn't make sense as you block that holding and even then.. I am not likely to win the hand QQvsQQ because I know that I got fourflushed :D

      This guy is a fish no doubt about it and the read I saw that he instantly reraised me while mostly he took time to call your raises etc.

      - Gerv
    • IngolPoker
      IngolPoker
      Black
      Joined: 05.09.2006 Posts: 10,467
      dont you ever dare asking again if you should fold QQ to a reraise! ^^

      ship it
    • DeKuip
      DeKuip
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 10,966
      Originally posted by IngolPoker
      dont you ever dare asking again if you should fold QQ to a reraise! ^^

      ship it
      Why ignore stats?
      Or you think he coldcalls AA/KK and 3bets worse hands?
    • IngolPoker
      IngolPoker
      Black
      Joined: 05.09.2006 Posts: 10,467
      The value "3bet" is totally unreliable, because BSS players have to 3bet totally different ranges against SSSers than against BSSers

      The others stats dont look THAT tight actually.

      An other aspect is balancing, although its commonly overrated ;)
      But if you fold QQ to a 3bet, you only continue AA&KK against a 3bet, an observing opponent will 3bet any2 against you until you readapt....so dont even start folding ^^

      After all, its a MP2 raise, not a UTG1 raise from us! We raise 99+, AQ+ here, so our opponent has more than 50% Equity with JJ+, AK+. And against this range we have enough EQ with QQ.....


      3 lines of argumentation, all pointing in the same direction ;)
    • DeKuip
      DeKuip
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 10,966
      Originally posted by IngolPoker
      The value "3bet" is totally unreliable, because BSS players have to 3bet totally different ranges against SSSers than against BSSers
      I'd think that they 3bet tighter against SSSers than against BSSers, or am I missing something here?

      Originally posted by IngolPoker
      The others stats dont look THAT tight actually.
      Agreed, but that's what also worries me about his 3bet stats, since they are 2% consistently over 11k hands.

      Originally posted by IngolPoker
      An other aspect is balancing, although its commonly overrated ;)
      But if you fold QQ to a 3bet, you only continue AA&KK against a 3bet, an observing opponent will 3bet any2 against you until you readapt....so dont even start folding ^^
      Nobody knows what hand you're folding and you only fold QQ in this specific situation. If other players start 3betting me looser now, I wouldn't really mind.

      Originally posted by IngolPoker
      After all, its a MP2 raise, not a UTG1 raise from us! We raise 99+, AQ+ here, so our opponent has more than 50% Equity with JJ+, AK+. And against this range we have enough EQ with QQ.....
      I'm not sure if our opponent thinks so much, but I agree with you here :)

      I know I'm quite stubborn, but please let me know if I'm saying anything completely wrong here.
    • IngolPoker
      IngolPoker
      Black
      Joined: 05.09.2006 Posts: 10,467
      @1: Against BSSers they can often call and just see a flop in position, against SSSers they should just 3bet it... So maybe he just calls hands like TT, JJ, AQ against BSS players, but 3bets them against SSSers (not saying this would be optimal ^^)
      @3: You are right, nobody knows what you will fold. But they might recognise that you always show KK or AA if you go broke against them ;)
      @4: If we do not assume that our opponents are thinking and adapting, advanced SSS basically wouldnt exist :P


      I think the major difference between our opinions is that i try to develop a WHOLE strategy that works, while your focus is just at this one hand.

      Its perfectly fine for NL100 and similar to just play every hand, and maybe even for NL1000, but i feel so uncomfortable knowing that the opponent COULD exploit me, if he just wanted to.