# How do you distinguish between downswing and variance?

• Bronze
Joined: 23.07.2008
Is it based on length of time, number of BB lost or number of hands played for example?
• 9 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 11.04.2008
a downswing is variance...
...going the wrong way

take a look at this post:
Variance in Fixed Limit Holdem
• Bronze
Joined: 07.03.2008
I belive that it hurts your game if you look for these downswings. I hurts your game even more if you find one, and focus on it.

This forum is filled with people who won't progress because they are playing scared because of a "downswing", and only focus on the hands they loose.

I'm all in for confidence and progression.
Screw variance, screw swings, shrug it of and win!
• Silver
Joined: 15.03.2008
Variance -
In poker, which contains an element of randomness, the variance refers to a player's deviation from his expected winnings. For example, a flush draw on the flop should win 36% of the time, but averaged over a small number of hands it might turn out to win only 25% of the time, or the flush might be missed five times in a row.

Downswing -
Downswings are natural occurrences that belong to a game of chance, just like their counterpart the upswing, where one makes extended gains. Any game with an element of chance has a certain amount of variance since the behavior of the cards is randomized for short periods of time and will deviate from the normal distribution. In the long term, however, the behavior will settle down even if a downswing can last for more than ten thousand hands. Secondary factors can also enter play, like tilt or the influence of frustration on play.

this is from pokerstrategy glossary
• Bronze
Joined: 17.07.2008
I would say that variance produces downswings and upswings.
• Bronze
Joined: 01.02.2009
a downswing is a period of variance going wrong
• Bronze
Joined: 16.07.2008
I think this graph, it's from an hour ago , illustrates variance fairly nicely.

I'm just moving along, gyrating around what might be considered my true winrate for a few days then all hell breaks loose - I lose winnings from 4 days of solid grinding in just under an hour. But, these things can happen on the upside, i.e. an upswing!
• Bronze
Joined: 23.11.2008
I think it is a question we must ask eistein.
Seriously, I am not even there, but if to many calculations come into this game, a coin will never have a heads or tails.