How do you distinguish between downswing and variance?

  • 9 replies
    • mkk9901
      Joined: 11.04.2008 Posts: 1,369
      a downswing is variance...
      ...going the wrong way ;)

      take a look at this post:
      Variance in Fixed Limit Holdem
    • Vargan
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 565
      I belive that it hurts your game if you look for these downswings. I hurts your game even more if you find one, and focus on it.

      This forum is filled with people who won't progress because they are playing scared because of a "downswing", and only focus on the hands they loose.

      I'm all in for confidence and progression. :]
      Screw variance, screw swings, shrug it of and win!
    • erptech
      Joined: 15.03.2008 Posts: 659
      Variance -
      In poker, which contains an element of randomness, the variance refers to a player's deviation from his expected winnings. For example, a flush draw on the flop should win 36% of the time, but averaged over a small number of hands it might turn out to win only 25% of the time, or the flush might be missed five times in a row.

      Downswing -
      Downswings are natural occurrences that belong to a game of chance, just like their counterpart the upswing, where one makes extended gains. Any game with an element of chance has a certain amount of variance since the behavior of the cards is randomized for short periods of time and will deviate from the normal distribution. In the long term, however, the behavior will settle down even if a downswing can last for more than ten thousand hands. Secondary factors can also enter play, like tilt or the influence of frustration on play.

      this is from pokerstrategy glossary
    • TheBrood
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,382
      I would say that variance produces downswings and upswings.
    • whateverdude
      Joined: 01.02.2009 Posts: 232
      a downswing is a period of variance going wrong
    • SalamiandCheese
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 569
      I think this graph, it's from an hour ago X( , illustrates variance fairly nicely.

      I'm just moving along, gyrating around what might be considered my true winrate for a few days then all hell breaks loose - I lose winnings from 4 days of solid grinding in just under an hour. But, these things can happen on the upside, i.e. an upswing!
    • Bokkieboy
      Joined: 23.11.2008 Posts: 8
      I think it is a question we must ask eistein.
      Seriously, I am not even there, but if to many calculations come into this game, a coin will never have a heads or tails.

      Good luck on your search,
    • RavForenzo
      Joined: 27.05.2008 Posts: 293
      ever think you're doing something seriously wrong if you have a graph that looks like that? massive ups and downs! lol you must get very frustrated
    • fcumred
      Joined: 16.03.2008 Posts: 55
      I deem variance to be a change to the normal pattern of winning.

      If you consistently return a 30% ROI over a period of 5 months then suddenly you drop down to 10% ROI then there is a clear variance. Likewise suddenly going up to 50% ROI is variance.

      Variance is not necessarily negative.

      A downswing is the reason for a negative variance, its how the change in your ROI came about and is usually temporary.