The blog of 100.000 Hands (NL 6max)

    • Flitzmeister
      Flitzmeister
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2015 Posts: 38
      Hello everyone! :welcome:

      I'm seeking for help to start a proper analysis of dozens, hundreds or even thousands of poker hands. The idea is to use Pokerranger, Pokersnowie and Piosolver to develop a very strong Gameplan, however I hope to get some useful guidance from the community as I struggle a little bit at the moment. I'm currently focusing on theory only until I'm very confident that I have a reasonable idea how to beat small stakes poker in the US with a good winrate.

      I will just start with the first "hand" and we will see where it gets ("hand" in this case means that I'm analyzing a certain situation on various different boards and try to understand the range that I play and the range of the opponent rather than focusing on just one hand. Be aware that I have never done this before so there might be quite some mistakes within my analysis.

      Once I developed the gameplan I will start to grind and slowly convert this blog from theory into practice! :gl:
      I will watch out to improve the structure of my analysis posts in the future once I get familiar with it and put it in correct order in my head so please don't bully me if it looks a little bit chaotic at the beginning.


      Content Milestones: Grinding Graph:
      NL50-NL200
      Rules for myself:
      • Bullet points only within my analysis posts#
      • Facts&figures at the top of the category
      • Turn and river clustering to be used to identify which cards improve which ranges
      • Use equity calculation with Piosolver rather than Pokerranger
      • Use equity calculation with Piosolver to understand the equity development based on turn and river cards (ctrl + arrow)

      General structure of analysis
      Range-ID: YYYY_MM_DD - XXX
      Situation: XXX - Flop cluster #XXX

      0. PIO config
      1. Preflop
      1.1 Preflop - Ranges
      OOP - Pics
      XXX


      Stats
      • XXX combos opened (XXX%)
      • XXX combos folded (XXX%)
      • XXXcombos 4bet (XXX%)
      • XXX combos called (XXX%)

      IP - Pics
      XXX


      Stats
      • XXX combos - (XXX%)

      1.2 Preflop - Equity
      • MP equity: XXX%
      • UTG equity: XXX%

      2 Flop - Cluster #XXX
      Board:
      XXX
      2.1 Flop - Ranges
      OOP:
      Pics
      XXX


      IP:
      Pics
      XXX


      2.2 Flop - Equity
      • OOP equity: XXX%
      • IP equity:XXX%
      • Reasoning equity shift:: XXX

      2.3 Flop - Strategy IP
      • Cbet frequency: XXX%
      • Reasoning: XXX

      Pics
      XXX


      2.4 Flop - Strategy OOP
      • Fold frequency::XXX%
      • Call frequency: XXX%
      • Raise frequency: XXX%
      • Reasoning: XXX

      Pics
      XXX


      3 Turn - check-check Flop
      3.1 Turn - Ranges
      OOP range:
      Pics
      XXX
      IP range:
      Pics
      XXX


      3.2 Turn - Equity
      • OOP equity: XXX%
      • IP equity: XXX%
      • Equity shift reasoning: XXX%

      3.3 Turn - Strategy IP (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • Low cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)
      • Medium cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)
      • High cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)

      3.4 Turn - Strategy OOP (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • Fold frequency:: XXX%
      • Call frequency: XXX%
      • Raise frequency: XXX%
      • Reasoning: XXX

      4 Turn - bet-call Flop
      4.1 Turn - Ranges
      OOP - Pics
      XXX


      IP - Pics:
      XXX


      4.2 Turn - Equity (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • OOP equity: XXX%
      • IP equity: XXX%
      • Equity shift reasoning: XXX%

      4.3 Turn - Strategy IP (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • Low cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)
      • Medium cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)
      • High cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)

      4.4 Turn - Strategy OOP (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • Low cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)
      • Medium cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)
      • High cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)


  • 9 replies
    • Flitzmeister
      Flitzmeister
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2015 Posts: 38
      Range-ID: 2016_11_22 - 3Bet MP & CO vs UTG

      Situation: MP 3bets UTG - Flop cluster #1

      0. PIO config


      1. Preflop
      1.1 Preflop - Ranges
      UTG:
      • 214 combos opened (100%)
      • 140 combos folded (65%)
      • 24 combos 4bet (11%)
      • -- >50 combos called (23%)

      MP:
      • 106 combos - 8%

      UTG RFI range: (214 combos - 16%)


      MP 3Bet range: (106 combos - 8%)


      UTG fold range: (140 combos - 65% relative, 10% absolute)


      UTG 4bet range: (24 combos - 11% relative, 1,8% absolute)


      UTG call range: (50 combos - 23% relative, 3,8% absolute)


      1.2 Preflop - Equity
      • MP equity: 46%
      • UTG equity: 54%

      2 Flop - Cluster #1
      :Ah: :7d: :2c:

      2.1 Flop - Ranges
      OOP:


      IP:


      2.2 Flop - Equity
      • MP equity: 53%
      • UTG equity: 47%

      • The flop favors the preflop aggressor (MP) even though the range of UTG is much stronger which is quite a surprise to me as I intuitively I would have thought an Ace-high flop favors a stronger range.
      • However, after reviewing the ranges it appears it heavily depends on the range which MP is 3betting. As there are quite a few Axs in the suggested 3betting range of MP there is quite a huge equity shift towards MP now.
      • UTG can't have sets (assuming he would always 4bet AA)
      • UTG can't have 2pair.
      • UTG range mainly consists of top pair or second pair.
      • MP can have 3 combos of sets.
      • MP can have combos of 2pair.
      • Overall MPs range is very much polarized.



      2.3 Flop - Strategy IP
      Cbet frequency: 42%
      • Assuming that there is no donking range (and if there is, we ignore it to not over complicate things), below is the Cbet strategy of MP.


      • I hope I haven't made any errors when using Piosolver as the betting strategy seems very odd as we have mixed strategy for many holdings.
      • The stronger our Ace-kicker the higher the betting frequency will be while checking back our Ax with medium kicker.
      • There is a tendency to have a higher check frequency with all our holdings which have backdoor equity.
      • The huge gap between KK and QQ is surprising to me as both hands do not need any protection, however Pio suggested to bet KK with roughly 20%. I assume we block parts of his value range (AKs and AKo) while the blocking effect with QQ is minimal.
      • When running PIO with a potsize of 35% the Cbet frequency increases to >60%. Mainly the strong Ax are getting betted with a higher frequency.



      2.4 Flop - Strategy OOP
      Once MP cbets UTG comes up with the strategy below.
      • Especially the low calling range and the high c/r range is very surprising to me as Pio wants UTG to raise AQs with a frequency of 50%. I wonder if any regular would ever raise AQs here?!
      • UTG has quite a high c/r range and c/c range with TT and 99 while folding QQ and JJ with nearly 100%. I'm struggling to find any reason for this, however it might be the case that we block the bluffing range of MP with QQ and JJ (KQ, KJ) while we do not block his value range. Very counter-intuitive for sure...

      • Fold: 46%
      • Call: 21%
      • Raise: 33%



      3 Turn - check-check Flop
      3.1 Turn - Ranges
      MP range:

      UTG range


      3.2 Turn - Equity
      • MP equity: 54%
      • UTG equity: 46%


      3.3 Turn - Strategy IP (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • Overall roughly 30-40% bet frequency which is very polarized
      • Ax with medium kicker will get checked behind
      • Ax with weak kicker will bet on low card turn with 50% frequency
      • All semi-bluffs with some equity will bet with a frequency of 70%
      • All pure bluffs without equity will bet with 50% -70% frequency

      3.4 Turn - Strategy OOP (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • Roughly 10-15% 3bet frequency which consists of nuts only (TP+), the lower the turn card the higher the frequency except the cards which complete the straight draws of IP
      • Roughly 10-15% 3bet frequency which consists of nuts only (TP+)
      • Third pairs get folded nearly 100%

      4 Turn - bet-call Flop
      4.1 Turn - Ranges
      MP range

      UTG range


      4.2 Turn - Equity (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • The equity shifts towards OOP with around 60% on every turn below Q as all the medium pockets "improve" to sets and IP holds various K and Q
      • The equity shifts towards IP with around 60% on every K


      4.3 Turn - Strategy IP (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • Roughly 45% betting frequency on low cards (2-6)
      • To balance the value range, bet pure bluffs with a high frequency which do not block OOP value range
      • Check behind all top pairs except AK with a very high frequency


      4.4 Turn - Strategy OOP (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • Roughly 55% calling frequency on nearly all turns
      • Folding nearly 100% of the pocket pairs except on a A turn
      • Check raising is pure nuts (TPTK+)

    • IvicaIliev77
      IvicaIliev77
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.05.2012 Posts: 4,239
      Hi and congratulations on your blog!
      I find this approach of most value and have done work myself this way.
      Where do you play while in USA by the way? I am curious as I might relocate to USA for 6 months again in the future time. Appreciate it!

      As far as this texture goes, just work on visualizing pre flop ranges and it will help you a lot post flop. For example, UTG defend OOP range here has very little to no fold equity on such texture while MP has weaker range here due to bluffs that didn't hit. Logically, I would expect MP to c bet more towards value here and x behind all the bluffs since UTG willl xc almost his whole range.
      Now regarding turn, that is when things get interesting. By GTO you will see that all these 2nd pairs hands that were on the flop by river can become 3rd pairs and therefore if MP 3 barrels, UTG will have to (in order to defend mathematically correct and not get exploited) call down with bluff catchers (which are exactly hands like 99-QQ but not all of them of course). This of course depends on a run out and MPs 3 barrel sizing. Vs different sizings your UTG calling range will change and should change.
      Important thing to note here is to check this from your actual DB of hands or simply play and take note in this spot what regs of different ability and unknowns do. If they never fold 99 to 3 barrel when on A72xx then then you need to adapt and always 3 barrel your extended value which you have ton of (ATs+ , AJo+, KK and even QQ). Note that UTG has a lot of Ax in his defend to 3 bet nai (AKo , AQs+ with some AJs, 15+ combos which is easily 1/3 of his range) so once UTG calls flop and turn vs 2 barrel his range on river will many times be Ax heavy with some bluff catchers very likely (say TT-QQ which is 18 combos). The question you want to get answer to is what will opponents do with TT JJ QQ on river facing 3 barrel and play around with different river sizing to figure it out by GTO vs exploitative ( I suggest ubet 1/3 for starters then 1/2 2/3 3/4 pot and over bet from 1.5x to all in).

      Hope that helped and opened some ways how to approach study with such tools. It makes me happy to see taking this long and right road to study range vs range. Let me know if I can be of more help and keep the updates coming, especially when you resume grinding and start applying things you learned!

      All the best!
    • Flitzmeister
      Flitzmeister
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2015 Posts: 38
      Originally posted by IvicaIliev77
      Hi and congratulations on your blog!
      I find this approach of most value and have done work myself this way.
      Where do you play while in USA by the way? I am curious as I might relocate to USA for 6 months again in the future time. Appreciate it!

      As far as this texture goes, just work on visualizing pre flop ranges and it will help you a lot post flop. For example, UTG defend OOP range here has very little to no fold equity on such texture while MP has weaker range here due to bluffs that didn't hit. Logically, I would expect MP to c bet more towards value here and x behind all the bluffs since UTG willl xc almost his whole range.
      Now regarding turn, that is when things get interesting. By GTO you will see that all these 2nd pairs hands that were on the flop by river can become 3rd pairs and therefore if MP 3 barrels, UTG will have to (in order to defend mathematically correct and not get exploited) call down with bluff catchers (which are exactly hands like 99-QQ but not all of them of course). This of course depends on a run out and MPs 3 barrel sizing. Vs different sizings your UTG calling range will change and should change.
      Important thing to note here is to check this from your actual DB of hands or simply play and take note in this spot what regs of different ability and unknowns do. If they never fold 99 to 3 barrel when on A72xx then then you need to adapt and always 3 barrel your extended value which you have ton of (ATs+ , AJo+, KK and even QQ). Note that UTG has a lot of Ax in his defend to 3 bet nai (AKo , AQs+ with some AJs, 15+ combos which is easily 1/3 of his range) so once UTG calls flop and turn vs 2 barrel his range on river will many times be Ax heavy with some bluff catchers very likely (say TT-QQ which is 18 combos). The question you want to get answer to is what will opponents do with TT JJ QQ on river facing 3 barrel and play around with different river sizing to figure it out by GTO vs exploitative ( I suggest ubet 1/3 for starters then 1/2 2/3 3/4 pot and over bet from 1.5x to all in).

      Hope that helped and opened some ways how to approach study with such tools. It makes me happy to see taking this long and right road to study range vs range. Let me know if I can be of more help and keep the updates coming, especially when you resume grinding and start applying things you learned!

      All the best!
      Thanks for your warm words and your initial thougts! :f_drink: I will move from London to Miami via L1A VISA for a few years so feel free to give a me shout if you around.

      It took me a while to understand what needs to be done to understand poker and I hope this approach will be a success story to reach mid stakes/high stakes in the future. I was struggling a lot in the past to find a good approach but this one is fun and already an eye opener for me. I do my best to not let life distract me too much with other things :f_cool:

      I have already run the same tree with different bet sizes and it's crazy how the betting/calling frequencies change, Poker is so f***** complex. I just put another 2 hours into my first post so any feedback is much appreciated! I will continue for another two hours or so and will hopefully finish it off (turn & river) tomorrow.
    • metalmonkey80
      metalmonkey80
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 15.08.2013 Posts: 2,091
      Don't think I will be much help yet, but I am certainly going to learn from your work here. Definitely looking forward to reading future posts. Brilliant blog sir :f_thumbsup:

      Regards

      Matt
    • Flitzmeister
      Flitzmeister
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2015 Posts: 38
      Originally posted by metalmonkey80
      Don't think I will be much help yet, but I am certainly going to learn from your work here. Definitely looking forward to reading future posts. Brilliant blog sir :f_thumbsup:

      Regards

      Matt
      Hey Matt, feel free to challenge me if you have questions or if something doesn't make sense as any question will add something to this blog and improve our learning curve.

      I can already tell this is very intense but I learned a lot and it slowly changes the way how I think about poker. The last two days have brought a lot of value so I will definitively keep this rolling. I underestimated the value of blocking/not blocking certain ranges, it seems to be a major driver for any decisions.
    • Flitzmeister
      Flitzmeister
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2015 Posts: 38
      Reworked the whole analysis after thinking about it for a while. Feels far better now and enables me to speed up any analysis for the future. Yay, I'm proud now :profit:

      I decided to play a little bit as I had some spare time. I will keep the results graph update in the first post.
    • Flitzmeister
      Flitzmeister
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2015 Posts: 38
      Hand 1+2+3 vs Fish-Reg who started to spew

      Hand 1:
      Pacific No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 Spieler) - Pacific Converter Tool from http://de.flopturnriver.com

      Hero (Button) ($62.74)
      SB ($41.70)
      BB ($52.61)
      UTG ($54.62)
      MP ($79.05)
      CO ($63.23)

      Preflop: Hero ist Button mit A:club: , 5:club:
      1 fold, MP raises $1.43, 1 fold, Hero raises $5.04, 2 folds, MP calls $3.61

      Flop: ($10.83) 8:club: , 10:heart: , 5:diamond: (2 Spieler)
      MP checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($10.83) 5:spade: (2 Spieler)
      MP checks, Hero bets $6, MP raises $18, Hero calls $12

      River: ($46.83) J:diamond: (2 Spieler)
      MP bets $56.01 (All-In), Hero calls $39.70 (All-In)

      Gesamt Pot: $126.23


      Hero hat A:club: , 5:club: (three of a kind, fives).
      MP hat Q:club: , A:heart: (one pair, fives).
      Ergebnis: Hero gewinnt $122.23



      Hand 2:
      Pacific No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 Spieler) - Pacific Converter Tool from http://de.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

      UTG ($25.37)
      MP ($67.91)
      CO ($50)
      Button ($79.38)
      Hero (SB) ($89.56)
      BB ($79.76)

      Preflop: Hero ist SB mit 5:spade: , 5:club:
      4 folds, Hero raises $1, BB raises $4, Hero calls $3.25

      Flop: ($9) 10:diamond: , 4:diamond: , 10:spade: (2 Spieler)
      Hero checks, BB bets $3, Hero calls $3

      Turn: ($15) 7:club: (2 Spieler)
      Hero checks, BB bets $15, Hero calls $15

      River: ($45) 2:spade: (2 Spieler)
      Hero checks, BB bets $33.75, Hero calls $33.75

      Gesamt Pot: $112.50


      Hero hat 5:spade: , 5:club: (two pair, tens and fives).
      BB hat J:diamond: , A:diamond: (one pair, tens).
      Ergebnis: Hero gewinnt $108.50



      Hand 3:
      Pacific No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 Spieler) - Pacific Converter Tool from http://de.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

      Button ($150.89)
      Hero (SB) ($82.54)
      BB ($47.09)
      UTG ($39.07)
      MP ($51.50)
      CO ($50)

      Preflop: Hero ist SB mit K:diamond: , 9:diamond:
      UTG raises $1.43, 1 fold, CO calls $1.43, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.18, 1 fold

      Flop: ($4.79) 9:heart: , 6:diamond: , 10:club: (3 Spieler)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $2.39, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.39

      Turn: ($9.57) 9:spade: (2 Spieler)
      Hero checks, UTG checks

      River: ($9.57) 4:spade: (2 Spieler)
      Hero bets $7.17, UTG raises $14.34, Hero calls $7.17

      Gesamt Pot: $38.25


      Hero hat K:diamond: , 9:diamond: (three of a kind, nines).
      UTG hat Q:heart: , Q:diamond: (two pair, Queens and nines).
      Ergebnis: Hero gewinnt $36.34


      Highlight vs fish:
      Pacific No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 Spieler) - Pacific Converter Tool from http://de.flopturnriver.com/

      Button ($80.93)
      Hero (SB) ($571.46)
      BB ($465.92)
      UTG ($215)
      MP ($234.46)
      CO ($266.40)

      Preflop: Hero ist SB mit 6:club: , 6:heart:
      UTG raises $5.75, 1 fold, CO calls $5.75, Button calls $5.75, Hero calls $4.75, 1 fold

      Flop: ($25) 6:spade: , A:diamond: , 9:diamond: (4 Spieler)
      Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets $22, Button calls $22, Hero raises $67, 1 fold, CO raises $238.65 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls $193.65

      Turn: ($568.30) 3:club: (2 Spieler, 1 all-in)

      River: ($568.30) J:diamond: (2 Spieler, 1 all-in)

      Gesamt Pot: $568.30


      Hero hat 6:club: , 6:heart: (three of a kind, sixes).
      CO hat 9:club: , A:club: (two pair, Aces and nines).
      Ergebnis: Hero gewinnt $564.30
    • Flitzmeister
      Flitzmeister
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2015 Posts: 38
      Currently in progress!

      Range-ID: YYYY_MM_DD - XXX
      Situation: XXX - Flop cluster #XXX

      0. PIO config
      1. Preflop
      1.1 Preflop - Ranges
      OOP - Pics
      XXX


      Stats
      • XXX combos opened (XXX%)
      • XXX combos folded (XXX%)
      • XXXcombos 4bet (XXX%)
      • XXX combos called (XXX%)

      IP - Pics
      XXX


      Stats
      • XXX combos - (XXX%)

      1.2 Preflop - Equity
      • MP equity: XXX%
      • UTG equity: XXX%

      2 Flop - Cluster #XXX
      Board:
      XXX
      2.1 Flop - Ranges
      OOP:
      Pics
      XXX


      IP:
      Pics
      XXX


      2.2 Flop - Equity
      • OOP equity: XXX%
      • IP equity:XXX%
      • Reasoning equity shift:: XXX

      2.3 Flop - Strategy IP
      • Cbet frequency: XXX%
      • Reasoning: XXX

      Pics
      XXX


      2.4 Flop - Strategy OOP
      • Fold frequency::XXX%
      • Call frequency: XXX%
      • Raise frequency: XXX%
      • Reasoning: XXX

      Pics
      XXX


      3 Turn - check-check Flop
      3.1 Turn - Ranges
      OOP range:
      Pics
      XXX
      IP range:
      Pics
      XXX


      3.2 Turn - Equity
      • OOP equity: XXX%
      • IP equity: XXX%
      • Equity shift reasoning: XXX%

      3.3 Turn - Strategy IP (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • Low cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)
      • Medium cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)
      • High cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)

      3.4 Turn - Strategy OOP (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • Fold frequency:: XXX%
      • Call frequency: XXX%
      • Raise frequency: XXX%
      • Reasoning: XXX

      4 Turn - bet-call Flop
      4.1 Turn - Ranges
      OOP - Pics
      XXX


      IP - Pics:
      XXX


      4.2 Turn - Equity (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • OOP equity: XXX%
      • IP equity: XXX%
      • Equity shift reasoning: XXX%

      4.3 Turn - Strategy IP (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • Low cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)
      • Medium cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)
      • High cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)

      4.4 Turn - Strategy OOP (Clustered by Turn cards)
      • Low cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)
      • Medium cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)
      • High cards reasoning (XXX-XXX)

    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 34,058
      How it’s going with improving your game this month so far?

      Cheers,
      SDK1987