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[NL20-NL50] NL25SH KJ, pretty obvious bluff

    • Talic
      Talic
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2008 Posts: 1,851
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      CO:
      $25,00
      Hero:
      $28,97

      0,1/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with K:heart: , T:heart:
      2 folds, CO raises to $0,50, Hero raises to $2,50, 2 folds, CO calls $1,75.

      Flop: ($5,10) 2:spade: , 5:spade: , 7:diamond: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero checks.

      Turn: ($5,10) 3:club: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $3,25, CO raises to $6,50, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $14,85

      check it down?
  • 5 replies
    • darkonebg
      darkonebg
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 17.01.2008 Posts: 9,508
      cbet after he checks.
      Turncard is not good for a delayed cbet.
      As played,I might shove here :D
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      The same as darkonebg, except I'm not shoving :P


      Let's make some calculations. Let's assume that whenever he calls you, you're beat. I think that's reasonable
      You're making $14,85 when he folds and you're losing 23,22 when he calls.

      In order to break even:
      EV = 14,85*FE - 23,22*(1-FE)
      0 = 14,85FE - 23,22 + 23,22FE
      23,22 = 38,07FE
      FE = 0,61

      So he's gotta fold 61% of the hands for you to break even with that move.

      I think it's possible he's folding that much =)
    • darkonebg
      darkonebg
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 17.01.2008 Posts: 9,508
      You actually forget that we are rarely drawing dead, even if called.So we have at least one over to hit.
      Still, I am not advising you to shove here.I'd not do it against an unknown either.
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      That's true. I didn't consider that into my calculations.

      I think it would be decent to give us some outs
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by darkonebg
      cbet after he checks.
      Turncard is not good for a delayed cbet.
      As played,I might shove here :D
      +1
      I think shove is a little bad. He would likely call with any pair, since your line doesnt make any sense.