[NL2-NL10] NL100, CO, AKs

    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Known players:

      0,5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.65 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:club: , K:club:
      5 folds, Hero raises to $3,50, BU calls $3,50, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($8,50) J:club: , J:heart: , 8:heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $7,00, Hero raises to $13,50 (All-In), BU calls $6,50.

      Turn: ($35,50) T:diamond:
      River: ($35,50) 2:heart: (1 players)

      Final Pot: $35,50

      I don't have any special reads on the opponent except the stats you can see, so I wonder what would you think of such a play? He's very loose and I think he could raise many hands on this flop, even if he's got a PP I have 6 outs on him... ...the only thing that bothers me is his AF which tells he's more passive, so I got a little confused when he raised, but on the other hand, it's not accurate after 158 hands anyway...
  • 4 replies
    • Meiffert
      Joined: 13.10.2008 Posts: 151
      Hm, why didn't you conti-bet the flop?
      You can bet about $6 representing an overpair or jack.
      Checking out of position here and giving up initiative doesn't make much sense to me. Also that raise is kinda weird, he will always call with 1:5 odds and you don't really have such a strong hand to go broke in my opinion (it is possible that he has weaker Ace and missed the flop but it seems more likely that he has a pocket or he hit).
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi Burek2k,

      We need more stats of opponent as in Popup Elephant or smth like that.

      Nevertheless I bet $5 and fold on resistance based on Equity.

      Best regards,
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      OK, I think he's calling me with a wide range here, since I'm openraising CO, so he prolly thinks I'm just stealing and therefore he's putting me on some weak hand. So, I think he's gonna try to take the pot down on the flop pretty often, specially on this one where he should think I didn't hit. For this reason I didn't want to bet/fold, because I think this way I would give him money most of the time and I rather gave him a chance to bluff and bust him...

      I made some calculations also and I think the ranges I chose are pretty realistical, maybe I could even try to exclude monsters here, because even though he's passive he would prolly 3-bet preflop...

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 47,278% 42,604% 9,348% 48,049% 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A7o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo
      Player 2: 52,722% 48,049% 9,348% 42,604% AKs

      ...however, I do agree some more stats would be nice. ^^
    • matt1234
      Joined: 06.05.2008 Posts: 99
      Ermmmm, I'd argue very strongly that if you have a Jack here you are checking every day of the week on flop. Betting is weakness here, and the check raise clearly shows a lot more strength, lack of FE though of course. I'd argue NH here.