[NL2-NL10] NL50 AQo, BU

    • jenoc
      jenoc
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 510
      Elephant stats aren't complete (I'm using elephant only for hand posting) villain's VPIP/PFR 30.6/14.8; 1156 hands, 3bet 4.8, resteal 5.2

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $46.45
      CO:
      $64.30
      Hero:
      $10.40

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A:club: , Q:heart:
      4 folds, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, SB raises to $10.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $7.90 (All-In), SB gets uncalled bet back.

      Flop: ($21.80) J:heart: , 6:diamond: , 4:club:
      Turn: ($21.80) A:spade:
      River: ($21.80) 8:club: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $21.80

      Can I ever fold here?
      How much hands do I need to be sure that 3bet and resteal stats are correct?
      Is there any possibility to edit villains stats in Elephant so I shouldn't write them on my own?

      Jenoc
  • 6 replies
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      When there's no action before late position and I raise w/ AQ and blinds reraise me, I go broke with a smile on my face against unkown with any raise: stack ratio(btw, you can go broke according to strategy in your hand).

      Considering your question, there's a post from xarry somewhere where he explained how many hands are needed for each stat to be accurate/halfway accurate, but I can't find it atm, so I think one of the judges will gladly explain this or get the link. But I think 3-bet should become halfway accurate at 200+ hands. However for good accuracy you definitely need thousands of hands.
    • gonafo
      gonafo
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.01.2009 Posts: 712
      Where is the 3-bet stat?should it be PFR?

      Best regards
    • jenoc
      jenoc
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 510
      Gonafo,

      pardon me but I'm not really sure what do you mean- villains 3bet value is in the very beginning of first post if that's it. If I'm not wrong then generally we can say that 3bet is 0.25 of players PFR, but I guess this might be very individual from player, position on table, etc.

      Jenoc
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by burek2000
      But I think 3-bet should become halfway accurate at 200+ hands. However for good accuracy you definitely need thousands of hands.
      For 3bet per position I need 2.5k at least :[

      against AQ+TT+ as 3bet range, you are slightly losing money but as this is happening in Late position, I would shove it and make a note unless you got important reads :)

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • gonafo
      gonafo
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.01.2009 Posts: 712
      hmm,so you divide PFR by 4 and get the how often he 3-bets you?

      Best regards
    • jenoc
      jenoc
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 510
      no, this is only a general presumption, I use PT provided 3bet stat but as we need big sample size on villain, then this value rarely takes real action in my decisions