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EV calculation in strategy article

    • Meiffert
      Joined: 13.10.2008 Posts: 151
      I have been rereading the silver strategy articles lately and found a possible mistake. :-)
      I already commented on it under the article, but no one responded so far.

      In the article you present this formula for computing the EV of a contibet:
      EV= Fold equity * Pot – (100-Fold equity) * Costs
      EV= 40% * $100 - 60% * $50
      EV= $40 - $30
      EV= $10

      Thus if you make a conti-bet, the average profit is $10.
      and then you compare this EV to the EV of checking behind and taking a free card where you have about 17 % of improving and making the best hand.

      In this formula you expect to loose every time the villain calls while we should still have the 17 % chance of improving to the best hand which increases the EV by around $15 because we win $200 pot where we just paid $50 more hence it is 0,6 (villain calls) * 0,17 (we improve) * (200 - 50).
      (I made a mistake about the amount in the original comment under the article.)

      I would like to find out whether I understand something wrongly or whether there is really a mistake.
      Thanks in advance for any answer. :-)
  • 2 replies