Why can't I have like a week-long heater?

    • nafar84
      nafar84
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.09.2008 Posts: 546
      You know, just for a change!!!

      Some of the stuff that's happened to me in the past week is simply incredible. It basically erased months of hard work. I've even had people telling me on the table chat that I must be under some sort of curse. River 2-outers, open ended straight flush draws that never hit, 2-pair consistently and reliably getting counterfeited by the turn or river, hitting my set of queens only to lose to the set of aces, flopping broadway with JT only to lose to some donk holding Q8 when turn and river both come ace ace, flopping a flush only to lose to a better flopped flush, flopping nut flush draw with AA heads-up only to find out he already has a flush (of course 4th heart never comes), idiots who shove with a straight draw and always hit their outs, flopping the nut straight only to lose to a backdoor flush...

      Now correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the law of variance mean that I should be getting as much heaters as downswings? My biggest heater thus far has lasted about, oh, 20 seconds.

      Ok I think I'm taking a break from this stuff for a while.
  • 4 replies
    • Waiboy
      Waiboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      Hey nafar84

      I'm no statistician, but unfortunately variance doesn't balance itself out.

      Your previous experience doesn't increase the chance that you will have a heater in the future as all future events are independant of past events...

      Which means the chance of losing the same rate as you have in the past is as likely to happen in the future as it was before you started losing... umm.. if you get what I mean!

      What it does mean is if you are a winning player, playing as near to the best game possible, you are more likely to end up winning in the long term.

      Having said all this, I fully intend having an unprecedented 20k hand heater and retire in two months! I suggest you employ this strategy (called self delusion). I've found it to be really helpful playing my "A" game! :D
    • Dickbreakr
      Dickbreakr
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2008 Posts: 62
      look at all this downswing, its fucking ridiculous. I think February is cursed month because there's only 28 days and sometimes 29 days every four years.

      it looks like u've been playing ur best but the cards aren't running your way. I feel for you man! especially when all the pots that were supposed to be shipped ur way ran into some ugly beat. There's no advice here except you really gotta change ur luck. Right now you're just going to have take someone's word that if u keep playing good u will do good in the long run.

      PS... if u're ever in a tough tough tough downswing, u can always click on this link
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGdbt5DWRsU

      Remember what a tough time when Eminem had when he was in da hood, he struggled, changed himself did his best and wrote kickass freestyling beats. A white cracker rocking himself in a nigga business you gotta be fucking insane to do something like that. I hope Eminem can inspire you, maybe open a couple of more tables and stack all the villain on your table!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!1!!11one!!
    • nafar84
      nafar84
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.09.2008 Posts: 546
      Originally posted by Waiboy
      Hey nafar84

      I'm no statistician, but unfortunately variance doesn't balance itself out.

      Your previous experience doesn't increase the chance that you will have a heater in the future as all future events are independant of past events...

      Which means the chance of losing the same rate as you have in the past is as likely to happen in the future as it was before you started losing... umm.. if you get what I mean!
      I get that. I mean, it's not more likely to have a downswing than a heater. They are normally equal chances (assuming you're playing A-game all the time). It's just that I've experienced much more of the former.

      And today, as if the poker gods are fucking with my brain, I got my second ever royal flush lol.

      I'll probably take up $5 sng's again for a while. I enjoy cash games and all their postflop play, but to build up my BR for now I think SNG's are a much better option for me... I just find that I have a bigger edge in tournament play over the average player, and I'm better at reading table dynamics and picking on the players that are under pressure and who just generally don't know what they're doing. At least they only get one chance to suck out on me with their rags than in cash games where they hang around forever.
    • slikec
      slikec
      Global
      Joined: 04.02.2008 Posts: 1,155
      I fell you man ;( I mean i deposited 500$ at cake in 10 days i got to 1k now i am one week around that magic 1k$ there. Goes up that goes down again and now i moved from 900-1050 at least 6 times and is frustrating. Today i saw aces at showdown 8 times and at 4 times they were cracked(twice mine ;( ). It suck but tomorrow is friday i hope fishes will make my day :D