# Fold frequency question

• Gold
Joined: 09.12.2014
Hi,
Full ring
Blind level
500/1000/125
We raise 2.5x from CO
Success steal rate required is 48%
Why do we cube root to find why btn+sb+bb has to fold 78% of their range?
• 7 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 12.10.2011
I hope I understood the question correctly

Technically we don't need a steal success rate of 48%. We only need that if we want to open raise any two and still auto-profit. So let's assume that's indeed what we're going for.

If so, you're right, we need a success rate of 2500/(2500+2625) = ~49%
Therefore, you indeed take 0.49^(1/3) = 0.79 = 79%, indicating you need them to fold 79% of the time on average.

The required fold frequency changes exponentially as we have more players behind us that need to fold, not linearly. That's the reason we take the cubed root. If it was just one player, we would just need him to fold 49% of the time. Against two players, we would take the square root again because we have to consider the second player. Same applies to the scenario here where we need 3 players to fold. And if we would have to make 7 players to fold we would take 0.49^(1/7).

Hope that makes sense
• Gold
Joined: 09.12.2014
Hey,

If I remember correctly from a different post, we are profiting on our steal when
SB folds 82%
BB folds 82%
Hero raises to 3x otb
Risking 3/(3+1.5)= 67%
.82x.82= .67
This is breaking even.(I would want both blinds to fold at a higher frequency for 3x to be an immediate profit)

Both blinds folds 78% of the time.(Opening from btn)
Both blinds are folding 60% of the time. Meaning if we raise 2x, 2/(3.5) need a fold 57% of the time we would make money on our raise with any two.(Wrong I believe after reading your comment)

Above example, Success rate -> square root -> .75 we need both villain to fold 75% of their range for our min raise to be profitable.

I hope I got it correct. Any negative feedback is welcome for improvement.
• Bronze
Joined: 12.10.2011
Basically you're absolutely correct

Of course you do have to keep in mind that there's a ton of other factors that also need to be taken into account. What we're calculating here only pertains to the steal itself, assuming there's no further action after that. But if you don't get quite the right fold frequencies, a steal might still be profitable if the blinds fold like 80% to cbets for example. Postflop EV is of course also very important.

That said it's of course still very useful to know when autoprofit spots like this come up
• Gold
Joined: 09.12.2014
Hey TJ,

I agree with you on our EV postflop depending on our villains postflop tendencies vs hero.
Do you think it's practical to create a spreadsheet for our steal sizing ? (Different fold frequency+ number of players left)
• Bronze
Joined: 12.10.2011
Sure that can definitely be useful to get a better understanding of it all. I wouldn't really bother too much with that though for earlier positions, probably don't even need it for CO but it can be very useful for stealing from BTN and SB.

Still can't hurt to have a look at it for other positions just to get a good grasp on the math/theory behind it but wouldn't use it too much in practice (except for BTN/SB and maybe CO).
• Bronze
Joined: 01.08.2014
the fold win
• Super Moderator
Super Moderator
Joined: 02.09.2010
Yes, and this calculation ignores your hand's equity.
So if you open a standard CO open range with 60% equity vs a random hand, you don't need so many folds.
Mind you, it is still important to be able to play post flop to realize that equity.

Also, the idea of "auto-profit" if you open ATC and get 3 villains to continue to fold 49% of the time is unrealistic.
It won't take them long to start to 3-Bet pretty harshly

Cheers,
VS
.