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Fold frequency question

    • dddq8842
      dddq8842
      Gold
      Joined: 09.12.2014 Posts: 89
      Hi,
      Full ring
      Blind level
      500/1000/125
      We raise 2.5x from CO
      Success steal rate required is 48%
      Why do we cube root to find why btn+sb+bb has to fold 78% of their range?
  • 7 replies
    • TJtheTJ
      TJtheTJ
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,588
      I hope I understood the question correctly :)

      Technically we don't need a steal success rate of 48%. We only need that if we want to open raise any two and still auto-profit. So let's assume that's indeed what we're going for.

      If so, you're right, we need a success rate of 2500/(2500+2625) = ~49%
      Therefore, you indeed take 0.49^(1/3) = 0.79 = 79%, indicating you need them to fold 79% of the time on average.

      The required fold frequency changes exponentially as we have more players behind us that need to fold, not linearly. That's the reason we take the cubed root. If it was just one player, we would just need him to fold 49% of the time. Against two players, we would take the square root again because we have to consider the second player. Same applies to the scenario here where we need 3 players to fold. And if we would have to make 7 players to fold we would take 0.49^(1/7).

      Hope that makes sense :)
    • dddq8842
      dddq8842
      Gold
      Joined: 09.12.2014 Posts: 89
      Hey,

      If I remember correctly from a different post, we are profiting on our steal when
      SB folds 82%
      BB folds 82%
      Hero raises to 3x otb
      Risking 3/(3+1.5)= 67%
      .82x.82= .67
      This is breaking even.(I would want both blinds to fold at a higher frequency for 3x to be an immediate profit)

      Both blinds folds 78% of the time.(Opening from btn)
      Both blinds are folding 60% of the time. Meaning if we raise 2x, 2/(3.5) need a fold 57% of the time we would make money on our raise with any two.(Wrong I believe after reading your comment)

      Above example, Success rate -> square root -> .75 we need both villain to fold 75% of their range for our min raise to be profitable.

      I hope I got it correct. Any negative feedback is welcome for improvement.
    • TJtheTJ
      TJtheTJ
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,588
      Basically you're absolutely correct :)

      Of course you do have to keep in mind that there's a ton of other factors that also need to be taken into account. What we're calculating here only pertains to the steal itself, assuming there's no further action after that. But if you don't get quite the right fold frequencies, a steal might still be profitable if the blinds fold like 80% to cbets for example. Postflop EV is of course also very important.

      That said it's of course still very useful to know when autoprofit spots like this come up :)
    • dddq8842
      dddq8842
      Gold
      Joined: 09.12.2014 Posts: 89
      Hey TJ,

      I agree with you on our EV postflop depending on our villains postflop tendencies vs hero.
      Do you think it's practical to create a spreadsheet for our steal sizing ? (Different fold frequency+ number of players left)
    • TJtheTJ
      TJtheTJ
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,588
      Sure that can definitely be useful to get a better understanding of it all. I wouldn't really bother too much with that though for earlier positions, probably don't even need it for CO but it can be very useful for stealing from BTN and SB.

      Still can't hurt to have a look at it for other positions just to get a good grasp on the math/theory behind it but wouldn't use it too much in practice (except for BTN/SB and maybe CO).
    • danigani
      danigani
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.08.2014 Posts: 2
      the fold win
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,735
      Yes, and this calculation ignores your hand's equity.
      So if you open a standard CO open range with 60% equity vs a random hand, you don't need so many folds.
      Mind you, it is still important to be able to play post flop to realize that equity.

      Also, the idea of "auto-profit" if you open ATC and get 3 villains to continue to fold 49% of the time is unrealistic.
      It won't take them long to start to 3-Bet pretty harshly

      Cheers,
      VS
      .