[NL10] AK Suited, ran into a pickle at the end. Do you agree with what I did?

    • AnXfile378
      AnXfile378
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.07.2017 Posts: 87
      AK Suited, ran into a pickle at the end. Do you agree with what I did? Sometimes playing vs Short Stacks can be tricky.

      Playing on Global Poker
      NL10

      6 Max Game
      NO Hud on this site
      No Tracker on this site

      Stack Sizes
      UTG (HERO) - 214.5 BB
      MP - 114 BB
      CO - 98.2 BB
      BU - 65.5 BB
      SB - 117.9 BB
      BB - 45.4 BB

      HERO Dealt: :As: :Ks:

      SB Post .5 BB
      BB Post 1 BB
      UTG (HERO) Raise 3 BB
      MP - Call 3 BB
      CO - Fold
      BU - Fold
      SB - Fold
      BB - Call 3 BB

      TOTAL POT: 9.5 BB

      FLOP
      :Kd: :Ts: :9c:

      BB - Check
      UTG (HERO) - Bet 4.7 BB
      MP - Fold
      BB - Calls 4.7 BB

      TOTAL POT: 18.9 BB

      TURN
      :Kd: :Ts: :9c: :Th:

      BB - Check
      UTG (HERO) - Bets 9.4 BB
      BB - Call 9.4 BB

      TOTAL POT: 37.7 BB

      RIVER
      :Kd: :Ts: :9c: :Th: :Qc:

      THE FINAL BETTING

      BB - Bets 29.3 BB
      UTG (HERO) - Folds

      BB - Mucks

      So I took this over to flopzilla to see each street, and even after the two Tens come out, I still have 81% equity in this hand. I really dont think she has a set of 10s based on her check on the Turn. She is a fish and would bet if she had 3 Tens.

      Then the Queen comes out on the river and that spooks me when she goes all in. The Queen coming out still gives me equity of 70% based on the range I gave her after she called my preflop raise (QQ-22,ATs+,KQs,JTs,AQo+)

      So, of course knowing the soft players on this site, my first thought is she has a Jack and completed a straight... but now im thinking, she also could have had a Queen and got excited about having two pair, Queens and Tens...

      That being said, the Pot Odds were 44% to make the call, so should there are 3 things here

      1. Pot Odds 44% which would normally not be a call I would make.
      2. Equity is 70% so maybe I can make this bet and possibly see she just got a Queen
      3. Fold like I did, knowing that these fishy players on Global Poker rarely bluff and I could see her getting all excited about hitting the straight

      What would you have done here?


      Thanks!
  • 7 replies
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 34,066
      It’s too bad we don’t know anything of the BB, but in general I would play the hand the same way with top pair against a unknown to bet on flop and turn for value. The river is a bad card for us, but without looking to the spoiler I would check behind most of the time. I don’t think we can value bet again.

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 7,154
      Call call donk is often a super strong line and I don't think you will see that as a bluff very often. Also it makes 0 sense for villain to do this with just Qx on this board vs UTG open and double barrel.

      If you believe you have 70% equity this is super easy snap call always. But let's be real:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 9.76% 9.76% 0.00% AsKs
      MP3 90.24% 90.24% 0.00% QQ-99, ATs, KTs+, QTs+, J8s+, T7s+, 87s

      Put him on a range that calls from BB vs UTG open and a call. Then start thinking what hands he will continue with OTF and OTT. And when he donks you can maybe include some bluffs (like I did with 87s) but most of his hands are quite strong. He has tons of straights, full houses, trips etc...
      There is no way you have 70% equity here.
    • AnXfile378
      AnXfile378
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.07.2017 Posts: 87
      Originally posted by la55i
      Call call donk is often a super strong line and I don't think you will see that as a bluff very often. Also it makes 0 sense for villain to do this with just Qx on this board vs UTG open and double barrel.

      If you believe you have 70% equity this is super easy snap call always. But let's be real:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 9.76% 9.76% 0.00% AsKs
      MP3 90.24% 90.24% 0.00% QQ-99, ATs, KTs+, QTs+, J8s+, T7s+, 87s

      Put him on a range that calls from BB vs UTG open and a call. Then start thinking what hands he will continue with OTF and OTT. And when he donks you can maybe include some bluffs (like I did with 87s) but most of his hands are quite strong. He has tons of straights, full houses, trips etc...
      There is no way you have 70% equity here.
      Well yea thats the difference when you add more ranges into the Villians Cold Calling Range. That being said, im almost positive this person doesnt know what a Cold Calling range even is, or is thinking about me being UTG. They are thinking about their hand only so I can see the logic in adding more combos to the villians possible cold calling ranges.

      When I use the expanded ranges my Equity is 57.651% on the Flop, 50% on the Turn and and of course 9.75% on the River...

      SO, if im thinking about this kind of range, MAYBE then it might have been better for me to put in a 75% bet on the Flop.... BUT if this Queen doesnt come out on the River, im fairly sure I win this hand and she doesnt donk.

      From an Equity standpoint, the Q is the only card here that hurts me.. aside from a Jack which would be 15%.. and it came out.
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 7,154
      What range do you use for villain?
      I guess you know that every time you bet he will call with a more narrow range and on this board if he is not a huge station his range is already quite tight by the river.
      And still I don't see villain doing this as a bluff. For me this looks like a clear fold.
    • AnXfile378
      AnXfile378
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.07.2017 Posts: 87
      This was my range on the villain

      QQ-22,ATs+,KQs,JTs,AQo+

      But that being said, her bet size screamed flush and that was enough for me even if the equity with this range said I had the edge, most people on this site and especially on NL10 do not bluff the river. Once in a while you see it, but a majority of them dont bluff.
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 7,154
      Why would he call call donk with 22-88? Or with AQ when there is K on the board and you have bet flop and turn?
    • DonQuishove
      DonQuishove
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2017 Posts: 6
      Hey ldmariodl28,

      I agree with your line and feel it's the more optimal way of playing the hand. I do have to say that I would probably bet slightly bigger on the flop, which would allow me to bet most of opponent's chips on the turn. In a 3-way pot and with a drawy board, I'd want to bet bigger with all my range.

      Cheers