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[NL2] Fold or call??

    • pdfbq
      Joined: 23.05.2008 Posts: 179
      PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (CO): 100 BB
      BTN: 104.5 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 30.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
      SB: 149 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 22)
      BB: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 23.26, PFR: 13.37, 3Bet Preflop: 3.13, Hands: 178)
      UTG: 102.5 BB (VPIP: 30.23, PFR: 23.26, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 43)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T:spade: Q:spade:

      fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

      Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) Q:diamond: 9:spade: K:diamond:
      Hero bets 4 BB, BTN raises to 10 BB, CO calls 6 BB

      Turn: (27.5 BB, 2 players) 7:spade:
      Hero checks, BTN bets 19 BB, Hero calls 19 BB

      River: (65.5 BB, 2 players) 9:club:
      Hero checks, BTN bets 34 BB

      Fold or call? Please decide before opening the spoiler!

      , Hero calls 34 BB

      OK OK.... I switched the players... I'm the button and villain is the CO.
      I hope this is OK and you girls/guys out there do not feel cheated because that is really not the intention.
      I try to avoid the 'you should have folded', don't bluff on 2NL etc answers.

      I am experimenting with bluffing but I really wonder?
      Why did he call? Because he got the right price?
      Because he's a fish (I absolutely do not think so, played many more hands at that table with him and have not spotted any fishy play or stats)?
      Because he's very good?
      Because I was obviously bluffing?
      Because the board paired?
      I have no clue...

      I think I would have folded here...

      BTN shows 8:club: 6:club: (One Pair, Nines)
      (Pre 37%, Flop 5%, Turn 14%)
      Hero shows T:spade: Q:spade: (Two Pair, Queens and Nines)
      (Pre 63%, Flop 95%, Turn 86%)
      Hero wins 129 BB

      Thanks in advance!

  • 10 replies
    • diminem99
      Joined: 06.04.2015 Posts: 55

      I would fold on the flop, since you only have second pair with a medium kicker.
      He could be raising you with a top pair or better that he wants to protect on this very wet board. On some occasions he could be raising you as a semi bluff with a flush draw, but even then he might have a pair with his flush, giving him good equity.

      As played, I would of course fold on the river.
    • la55i
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 7,951
      This looks like a fold OTR. Theoretically you have to defend over 60% of your range here but I think you have enough Kx and better Qx so this would probably be a fold. Also if we defend that wide we assume villain is bluffing with optimal frequency. This is NL2 and villain probably plays this way with too value heavy range. So from this perspective it looks even more like a fold.

      Imo flop is a fold only if we believe villain bluffs way too little. We have a midpair, a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw and villains raise is only 2.5x.

      That was very clever :f_biggrin:
      I think villain probably should have folded there. If he is a very good player he might have thought about his defending frequencies and figured out in his head that you have bluffs here and his second pair is at least close to a call.. But he can think like that only if he believes 1) you play optimally too 2) you bluff too much..

      And if you have been caught doing this stuff he might have a note on you. I think that is more likely. Or then the guy just has problems folding OTR..

      And btw your play was bad. It was ballsy but that kind of moves can cost you money. You have a lot better hands do that with, like :Td: :8d: , :Jd: :9d: , :As: :Ts: etc... wait for those hands.
    • A1b1n
      Joined: 22.08.2017 Posts: 1
    • oviovi86
      Joined: 28.11.2014 Posts: 78
      Fold river
    • pdfbq
      Joined: 23.05.2008 Posts: 179

      That was very funny and creative of you :f_biggrin: . Makes my day!

      Yes I agree, that was a bit too rough probably :f_ugly: .
      Anyways, this was my thought process:
      On the flop I simply did not believe him so raised his bet (protect hand etc).
      Then I hit an open-ender on the turn which made me semi bluff it.
      On the river I thought, the only way to win this pot is to bluff there.

      Now after I red your reply I think he red me, saw me being rough in the hands before.
      Something to think about the next time.

      Don't worry too much about my stack at 2NL..
      I'm at the moment at 3.5BB/100 and the last 17.500 hands 11.25BB/100 including this one (total 65K hands)
      I have somewhere the feeling that I'm on the right path .. maybe this was a stupid hand but still... many would have folded their mid pair (or even top pair)

    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,020
      btn's sizings don't make a lot of sense but i wouldn't level myself and just fold river

      as others have mentioned, this hand choice is terrible (you have basically zero chance of winning a showdown, even the OESD on the turn is fake news because a T might very likely give the opponent a better straight). however, this runout is not bad for bluffing, because he will have a lot of 1 pair and pair+draw hands that he should give up on the river.
      again, i would never go crazy with this hand, but if i raise this flop i'd probably tweak the sizings in previous streets and ship the river for maximum value/pressure, both with value/bluffs.
    • YohanN7
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,711
      Calling is donating money. Fold. Or check-raise him AI if you insist on gambling.

      LOL. Looks like you tried to bluff the wrong guy:D
      Well, try to bluff with position (good) and OUTS (huge mathematical improvement). From turn and on absolutely fine. But flop no (and I'd 3-bet that hand preflop if in bluffing mode)
    • insomnia666
      Joined: 31.07.2010 Posts: 3,198
      River fold. The rest is good.

      Your call on the river is bad. I am from "unbelievers"and I obv like overcalling in similar spots. But with info.You will suffer on this limits with this type of play
    • tmannie
      Joined: 09.06.2009 Posts: 164
      fold you are probably far behind
    • Arnusen
      Joined: 06.09.2016 Posts: 75
      on flop ide say he could have had any
      straight draw like J8 or AT
      flush draw
      and of course the high card with K plus a two pair (wich he might not continue to bet)

      since he reraises you i would assume at least that, if even not a monster like TJ (even if thats less likely) so i would have said a fold wouldnt be wrong on turn. But after his bet on turn i would narrow down to either a bluff or a two pair/set.

      and on the end i am pretty sure he must have a stronger holding than third pair so folding would be the only option.

      ............. lol know i opend the spoiler, nice one! - for me it was the reraise on flop that made me curious. He might have had the feeling that u didnt hit ur draws and just tryed to bluff him off at the end.