[NL10] KK - Would he shove with a worse hand?

    • AnXfile378
      Joined: 20.07.2017 Posts: 88
      So this one is just a hand I am posting.. not much though here prob for discussion because we are prob looking at an easy fold on the river, but im posting anyway so hopefully I can remember this kind of thinking the next time I play.

      The question im trying to keep asking myself is (would this player bet on the river with xxx).

      Check out this hand prob for a lesson from us all.. and what would you do on his shove bet on the river?

      Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      MP: 101.3 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 37.78, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 49)
      CO: 113.6 BB (VPIP: 26.61, PFR: 21.20, 3Bet Preflop: 7.04, Hands: 725)
      Hero (BTN): 152 BB
      SB: 107.2 BB (VPIP: 29.87, PFR: 19.61, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 156)
      BB: 131.2 BB (VPIP: 25.31, PFR: 14.94, 3Bet Preflop: 6.38, Hands: 249)
      UTG: 79.5 BB (VPIP: 10.20, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 49)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:spade: K:heart:

      fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 6 BB

      Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 2:diamond: 4:club: Q:heart:
      CO checks, Hero bets 13.9 BB, CO calls 13.9 BB

      Turn: (47.3 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond:
      CO checks, Hero bets 33.7 BB, CO calls 33.7 BB

      River: (114.7 BB, 2 players) 3:diamond:
      CO bets 57 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 57 BB

      CO shows Q:diamond: A:diamond: (Flush, Ace High)

      Hero shows K:spade: K:heart: (One Pair, Kings)

      CO wins 217.3 BB

  • 3 replies
    • pdfbq
      Joined: 23.05.2008 Posts: 176
      I find this a very good question because I do not know.

      Now here is why I don't know:

      I think on the river the chances you are beat are 95% .. the pot is 114 and you have to pay 57 so pot committed I think?

      Now the part I do not know and don't understand:
      If you almost certainly know you are beat *why* do you have to put in another 57 BB? What is the theory/math about being pot committed in this situation?
    • la55i
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 7,611
      For me the river decision seems quite easy.
      You need 25% equity to call. Call Call Donk - line is very often very very strong. Flush just got there and any A and 6 makes a straight.

      With what hands villain can call flop and turn? He probably calls our 3bet pre with some pocket pairs, AQ,AJ, maybe ATs, KQs and then some suited connectors?
      When he calls the turn I would say he has very likely a flush draw, straight draw or a QX hand. If he had flush or straight draws those just got there OTR. If he has QX most of them are AQ and those just got a straight. If he has KQs, there is only one KQs combo that we beat.
    • neliorelva
      Joined: 01.06.2017 Posts: 20
      Based on his stats and that he calls your bet on the flop and turn i put him most certainly on AQ. As said above, the line that he took, the weaker hand that he could be representing on the river is a set and we don't beat it.
      Given that his range consists mostly of Ax combos and PP, i think we have to fold. Unfortunate to get this action with KK but is poker 😆
      Keep up the work.