equity question

    • adr0001
      Joined: 02.03.2008 Posts: 271
      I don’t know how to calculate the equity I need to see the showdown with hands that might be good but are not very strong(medium pair, top pair with weak kicker).

      For instance this hand: FL FR .1/.2 Pocket 8's - When to fold?

      After hero is check-raised the pot is 10 SB. Pot odds are 10:1, but hero can’t call this hand just to see the turn and then fold. He has to call to see a showdown. If hero wants to go to the showdown he will have to pay 1SB+2BB(assuming SB will bet any turn and any river). So hero has to pay 5SB to win 10+4=14SB. 14:5=2.8:1 So 100/3.8=26.3%. But sometimes SB has a flush draw that turns into a flush on the turn or on the river. Or is raising with overcards and he hits a pair on turn or river. So I think hero has to have on the flop a bigger equity than 26.3%. But how much big?

      Can a fold on the flop or turn be good if certain cards appear?

      If I know that SB is only check-raising with top pair or better(he never check-raises middle pair and overcards) and with str8 and flush draw, do I still have to call his flop raise? I suppose yes, but how big the pot should be to do that call?
  • 1 reply
    • ciRith
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      Hi adr0001,

      calling the flop with insufficient odds doesn't mean that we have to see a showdown. If we say that he will raise a 9 or better and a draw here then you can fold if a lot draws get completed on the turn and river.
      Going by pure equity is not that efficient here. If we have 30% equity as he is raising a lot draws here it makes no sense to continue if a 6 :spade: or A :spade: comes on the turn as it completes a flushdraw and an oesd. If you have just 20% equity because he is raising mainly strong hands then your equity improves if no draw gets completed (well with just 20% equity it's a question if it's really enough to call but just as an example).

      Additionally you have to think about the long run. If you fold your pretty good but no monster hands that fast you may get exploited fast. Often it's not that important on these limits but if you fold the flop directly to a check/raise it may induce him to do it again the next time.

      I hope it wasn't too confusing. Please let me know if I skipped a certain question. :)